Around the League 2019-2020 Edition

[worm]

My first instinct is "hell no". But like LGM, I don't know much about the non-Lafreniere prospects so who knows

i will be happy if the habs get Lafreniere but I am not convinced he will be the best player in the draft

i might be putting way too much stock in him being old for his draft class and being a winger

 

[leafman101]

I think the gap between Lafreniere and Byfield is mostly due to Lafreniere being a year older. Otherwise I see the production and talent level as very similar. That also makes Lafreniere the safer pick, but it would be hard for me to take the winger over the center if I think they are equals in talent.

I don't think there is a wrong pick though. Lafreniere is legit.

 

[Habsy]

By all accounts he is the most ready for the NHL. That doesn't necessarily translate that he will ultimately be the best of the draft. Just the one that will get there quickest.

I think Askarov will turn out to be the best in the draft. Generational goalie.

 

[Habsy]

I think the gap between Lafreniere and Byfield is mostly due to Lafreniere being a year older. Otherwise I see the production and talent level as very similar. That also makes Lafreniere the safer pick, but it would be hard for me to take the winger over the center if I think they are equals in talent.

I don't think there is a wrong pick though.

Even with Matthews and Tavares?

 

[MindzEye]

You don't think Stuetzle/Drysdale > Lafreniere?

Just like I don't think the 3 & the 5 are worth the #1 in most drafts, no.

If we look at drafts over the last 10 years or so:

Hughes v Dach + Turcotte
Dahlin v Kotkaniemi + Hayton
Hischier v Heiskanen + Pettersson
Matthews v PLD + Juolevi
McDavid v Strome + Hanifin
Ekblad v Draisatl + Dal Colle
Mackinnon v Drouin + Lindholm
Yakupov v AG + Rielly
RNH v Huberdeau + Strome
Hall v Gudbranson + Neidereitter

Hughes is too early to tell, Ekblad probably delayed developmentally by the conky's but such is life...he was looking like a surefire perennial Norris type out of the box. Yak a bust, RNH a lesser bust, but still.

If we line up the times where it's been a clear mistake to take the skilled forward in this context and look at their pre draft seasons:

Hischier: 1.51ppg
Yakupov: 1.64
RNH: 1.71

Lafreniere: 2.15

The safe bet appears to be taking the #1 pick, aside from when it's just not an elite #1 at the top of the board. Lafreniere is a fringe elite #1 in my opinion. A clear, clear step above the mistakes and a step down from the Matthews-McDavid tier of #1 picks over the last 10 years. I don't think you pass on that for a combination of anyone else at the top of the board other than Byfield.

 

[worm]

im a gambler taylor hall vs sequin and johnsen

of course it could be patrick kane vs junk

or yakapov vs chuck and reilly

ekblad vs leon and somebody


looking back at the last 15 years seems like if you trust your drafting you gotta go with the 3 and 5

 

[Wayward DP]

I'd take Pettersson and Heiskanen over Hischier too. But yes, generally quality >>> quantity.

 

[LeafGm]

I just vividly remember all the hypothetical trade packages we were offered for the Matthews pick. Many of them legitimately included some high-end talent and a great collection of assets.

...and if you went back and looked at them today, all of them would be uniformly awful/catastrophic deals for the Leafs.

 

[MindzEye]

looking back at the last 15 years seems like if you trust your drafting you gotta go with the 3 and 5

That's not my takeaway from a look at those drafts at all.

 

[Habsy]

Just like I don't think the 3 & the 5 are worth the #1 in most drafts, no.

If we look at drafts over the last 10 years or so:

Hughes v Dach + Turcotte
Dahlin v Kotkaniemi + Hayton
Hischier v Heiskanen + Pettersson
Matthews v PLD + Juolevi
McDavid v Strome + Hanifin
Ekblad v Draisatl + Dal Colle
Mackinnon v Drouin + Lindholm
Yakupov v AG + Rielly
RNH v Huberdeau + Strome
Hall v Gudbranson + Neidereitter

Hughes is too early to tell, Ekblad probably delayed developmentally by the conky's but such is life...he was looking like a surefire perennial Norris type out of the box. Yak a bust, RNH a lesser bust, but still.

If we line up the times where it's been a clear mistake to take the skilled forward in this context and look at their pre draft seasons:

Hischier: 1.51ppg
Yakupov: 1.64
RNH: 1.71

Lafreniere: 2.15

The safe bet appears to be taking the #1 pick, aside from when it's just not an elite #1 at the top of the board. Lafreniere is a fringe elite #1 in my opinion. A clear, clear step above the mistakes and a step down from the Matthews-McDavid tier of #1 picks over the last 10 years. I don't think you pass on that for a combination of anyone else at the top of the board other than Byfield.

As you mentioned:

Hughes v Dach + Turcotte - Too early to tell

Dahlin v Kotkaniemi + Hayton - Still too early to tell

Hischier v Heiskanen + Pettersson - This one is bad. Heskanen and Pettersson is a nice haul.

Matthews v PLD + Juolevi - Not even close. Matthews >

McDavid v Strome + Hanifin - Same as Matthews

Ekblad v Draisatl + Dal Colle - I like Draisatl and Dal Colle over Ekblad

Mackinnon v Drouin + Lindholm - Mackinnon >

Yakupov v AG + Rielly - Rielly really makes this one not even close

RNH v Huberdeau + Strome = Again 3 & 5

Hall v Gudbranson + Neidereitter - Hall

So if you take out the first two which are still too early to call you get 4 clear votes for the #1 and 4 votes (maybe not as clear but close) for #3 and #5. It's a coin flip and seeing as this is a talent rich top of the draft I think an argument can be made for the trade.

 

[Habsy]

I'd take Pettersson and Heiskanen over Hischier too. But yes, generally quality >>> quantity.

I see it as 4 to 4 over the 8 years pre 2018.

The caveat here is that Lafreniere is at 2.15 ppg which is stellar. Not generational like McDavid or Crosby but still stellar so yeah, he will likely get the nod on this one when all is said and done.

 

[trujaysfan]

With the talents we have pulled from late 1sts and 2nds i think i would trust dubas if he made the move.

I also wouldnt mid trying to trade it outright if a rebuilding team offered a couple good assets at steep $$$ discounts.

 

[Habsy]

Anyone remember what Mackinnon posted his final year in junior?

 

[MindzEye]

I just vividly remember all the hypothetical trade packages we were offered for the Matthews pick. Many of them legitimately included some high-end talent and a great collection of assets.

...and if you went back and looked at them today, all of them would be uniformly awful/catastrophic deals for the Leafs.

The key really is figuring out what you've got on your hands at the #1 pick. Lafreniere is a really good prospect. A bit hard to handicap statistically due to his age but the idea of trading him in the hopes that the combined value of the 2 ends up better than Lafreniere is projected to me just doesn't make sense at all.

Fwiw, I put Lafreniere in a similar tier with Tavares, Stamkos, Kane, Mackinnon. Probably at the bottom of that group, but in it.

 

[Habsy]

With the talents we have pulled from late 1sts and 2nds i think i would trust dubas if he made the move.

I also wouldnt mid trying to trade it outright if a rebuilding team offered a couple good assets at steep $$$ discounts.

Knowing Dubas he would use the #1 to unload any contract he doesn't want, get a goalie prospect and try for 3 & 5 in addition to that to boot.

All this being said, I'm not so sure Ottawa does the trade for #1, they need a lot of help and 3 & 5 goes a long way for them.

 

[MindzEye]

Anyone remember what Mackinnon posted his final year in junior?

Mackinnon was very young for his draft class. Was still 17 at the draft.

18: .77ppg (NHL)
17: 1.71ppg
16: 1.35ppg

Lafreniere:

18: 2.15ppg
17: 1.72ppg
16: 1.33ppg

 

[Habsy]

Mackinnon was very young for his draft class. Was still 17 at the draft.

18: .77ppg (NHL)
17: 1.71ppg
16: 1.35ppg

Lafreniere:

18: 2.15ppg
17: 1.72ppg
16: 1.33ppg

Yeah, for a team not looking to rebuild like Ottawa you're probably right, Lafreniere is the way to go. Those numbers are strikingly comparable.

 

[MindzEye]

As you mentioned:

Hughes v Dach + Turcotte - Too early to tell

yep

Dahlin v Kotkaniemi + Hayton - Still too early to tell

lol no, Dahlin is already really really good.

Hischier v Heiskanen + Pettersson - This one is bad. Heskanen and Pettersson is a nice haul.

Yep. Hischier was over valued badly with mediocre CHL production, Pettersson badly undervalued despite strong euro numbers

Matthews v PLD + Juolevi - Not even close. Matthews >

McDavid v Strome + Hanifin - Same as Matthews

Yeah, this is just something that is never done...though a whole lot of people in the hockey media tried to argue that we should do it at the time. Idiots.

Ekblad v Draisatl + Dal Colle - I like Draisatl and Dal Colle over Ekblad

Agreed. Without the conky's I think this one is closer or even flat but LD is a beast.

Mackinnon v Drouin + Lindholm - Mackinnon >

By a whole lot

Yakupov v AG + Rielly - Rielly really makes this one not even close

Another case of a #1 pick with middling ass CHL production for a top prospect. There is a pretty clear trend here imo, avoid the hell of out these guys who weren't putting up legitimately elite production in the CHL.

RNH v Huberdeau + Strome = Again 3 & 5

See above. RNH put up 1.53, and Hubie put up 1.58ppg...that should have been a red flag.

Hall v Gudbranson + Neidereitter - Hall

By a whole lot.

So if you take out the first two which are still too early to call you get 4 clear votes for the #1 and 4 votes (maybe not as clear but close) for #3 and #5. It's a coin flip and seeing as this is a talent rich top of the draft I think an argument can be made for the trade.

Eh, the Dahlin one isn't too early to tell. Complete stud pending.

It's only a coin flip when it's a weak #1. When it's a strong #1 it's suicide to trade them away. Fwiw, I don't buy this as a particularly talent rich top of the draft. I like Lafreniere & Byfield at the top a lot, and like everything else a lot less.

 

[Habsy]

Fair enough. Lafreniere's 2,15 can't be ignored.

I do think Ottawa is better off keeping their picks though.

 

[soco22]

I could see a team taking Byfield at 1. He was just as good as Lafreniere at 17 and is a center.

Trading down from 1 to 3 only makes sense if you believe Stutzle is a star. Which he might be. Or that LA is going to take him.

dont have to trade until LA selects at #2 and then could pull the trigger if the player the leafs want is available at 3