Habsy
Not playing around anymore.
Oh well, case closed then. Anglophone from Alberta has spoken.
All seriousness though, you would take Byfield over Lafreniere? I know where Sal and Geeman sit on this, are you another?
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- Thread starter LeafGm
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All seriousness though, you would take Byfield over Lafreniere? I know where Sal and Geeman sit on this, are you another?
worm
Well-known member
i will be happy if the habs get Lafreniere but I am not convinced he will be the best player in the draft
i might be putting way too much stock in him being old for his draft class and being a winger
leafman101
Well-known member
I think the gap between Lafreniere and Byfield is mostly due to Lafreniere being a year older. Otherwise I see the production and talent level as very similar. That also makes Lafreniere the safer pick, but it would be hard for me to take the winger over the center if I think they are equals in talent.
I don't think there is a wrong pick though. Lafreniere is legit.
I don't think there is a wrong pick though. Lafreniere is legit.
Habsy
Not playing around anymore.
Even with Matthews and Tavares?
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
Just like I don't think the 3 & the 5 are worth the #1 in most drafts, no.
If we look at drafts over the last 10 years or so:
Hughes v Dach + Turcotte
Dahlin v Kotkaniemi + Hayton
Hischier v Heiskanen + Pettersson
Matthews v PLD + Juolevi
McDavid v Strome + Hanifin
Ekblad v Draisatl + Dal Colle
Mackinnon v Drouin + Lindholm
Yakupov v AG + Rielly
RNH v Huberdeau + Strome
Hall v Gudbranson + Neidereitter
Hughes is too early to tell, Ekblad probably delayed developmentally by the conky's but such is life...he was looking like a surefire perennial Norris type out of the box. Yak a bust, RNH a lesser bust, but still.
If we line up the times where it's been a clear mistake to take the skilled forward in this context and look at their pre draft seasons:
Hischier: 1.51ppg
Yakupov: 1.64
RNH: 1.71
Lafreniere: 2.15
The safe bet appears to be taking the #1 pick, aside from when it's just not an elite #1 at the top of the board. Lafreniere is a fringe elite #1 in my opinion. A clear, clear step above the mistakes and a step down from the Matthews-McDavid tier of #1 picks over the last 10 years. I don't think you pass on that for a combination of anyone else at the top of the board other than Byfield.
Wayward DP
Well-known member
I'd take Pettersson and Heiskanen over Hischier too. But yes, generally quality >>> quantity.
LeafGm
Well-known member
I just vividly remember all the hypothetical trade packages we were offered for the Matthews pick. Many of them legitimately included some high-end talent and a great collection of assets.
...and if you went back and looked at them today, all of them would be uniformly awful/catastrophic deals for the Leafs.
...and if you went back and looked at them today, all of them would be uniformly awful/catastrophic deals for the Leafs.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
That's not my takeaway from a look at those drafts at all.
Habsy
Not playing around anymore.
As you mentioned:
Hughes v Dach + Turcotte - Too early to tell
Dahlin v Kotkaniemi + Hayton - Still too early to tell
Hischier v Heiskanen + Pettersson - This one is bad. Heskanen and Pettersson is a nice haul.
Matthews v PLD + Juolevi - Not even close. Matthews >
McDavid v Strome + Hanifin - Same as Matthews
Ekblad v Draisatl + Dal Colle - I like Draisatl and Dal Colle over Ekblad
Mackinnon v Drouin + Lindholm - Mackinnon >
Yakupov v AG + Rielly - Rielly really makes this one not even close
RNH v Huberdeau + Strome = Again 3 & 5
Hall v Gudbranson + Neidereitter - Hall
So if you take out the first two which are still too early to call you get 4 clear votes for the #1 and 4 votes (maybe not as clear but close) for #3 and #5. It's a coin flip and seeing as this is a talent rich top of the draft I think an argument can be made for the trade.
Habsy
Not playing around anymore.
I see it as 4 to 4 over the 8 years pre 2018.
The caveat here is that Lafreniere is at 2.15 ppg which is stellar. Not generational like McDavid or Crosby but still stellar so yeah, he will likely get the nod on this one when all is said and done.
trujaysfan
Well-known member
With the talents we have pulled from late 1sts and 2nds i think i would trust dubas if he made the move.
I also wouldnt mid trying to trade it outright if a rebuilding team offered a couple good assets at steep $$$ discounts.
I also wouldnt mid trying to trade it outright if a rebuilding team offered a couple good assets at steep $$$ discounts.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
The key really is figuring out what you've got on your hands at the #1 pick. Lafreniere is a really good prospect. A bit hard to handicap statistically due to his age but the idea of trading him in the hopes that the combined value of the 2 ends up better than Lafreniere is projected to me just doesn't make sense at all.
Fwiw, I put Lafreniere in a similar tier with Tavares, Stamkos, Kane, Mackinnon. Probably at the bottom of that group, but in it.
Habsy
Not playing around anymore.
Knowing Dubas he would use the #1 to unload any contract he doesn't want, get a goalie prospect and try for 3 & 5 in addition to that to boot.
All this being said, I'm not so sure Ottawa does the trade for #1, they need a lot of help and 3 & 5 goes a long way for them.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
Mackinnon was very young for his draft class. Was still 17 at the draft.
18: .77ppg (NHL)
17: 1.71ppg
16: 1.35ppg
Lafreniere:
18: 2.15ppg
17: 1.72ppg
16: 1.33ppg
Habsy
Not playing around anymore.
Yeah, for a team not looking to rebuild like Ottawa you're probably right, Lafreniere is the way to go. Those numbers are strikingly comparable.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
yep
lol no, Dahlin is already really really good.
Yep. Hischier was over valued badly with mediocre CHL production, Pettersson badly undervalued despite strong euro numbers
Yeah, this is just something that is never done...though a whole lot of people in the hockey media tried to argue that we should do it at the time. Idiots.
Agreed. Without the conky's I think this one is closer or even flat but LD is a beast.
By a whole lot
Another case of a #1 pick with middling ass CHL production for a top prospect. There is a pretty clear trend here imo, avoid the hell of out these guys who weren't putting up legitimately elite production in the CHL.
See above. RNH put up 1.53, and Hubie put up 1.58ppg...that should have been a red flag.
By a whole lot.
Eh, the Dahlin one isn't too early to tell. Complete stud pending.
It's only a coin flip when it's a weak #1. When it's a strong #1 it's suicide to trade them away. Fwiw, I don't buy this as a particularly talent rich top of the draft. I like Lafreniere & Byfield at the top a lot, and like everything else a lot less.