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Preston

Well-known member
Fear. You missed fear as equity and debt capital showed signs of being harder to get your hands on.

You missed irrational levels of fear in the face of the best news US cannabis has ever received.
Makes sense. Based on the little I hold, I'm perfectly fine with this. I think it does present a buying opportunity but shit needs to get moving in the US. Florida, NY, NJ, PA all appear to be on the verge of legalizing recreationally, with Illinois starting in January. That alone wrecks the population of Canada.. And that doesn't include the positive developments with SAFE (although the impeachment shit may put a hold on that). Yet these MSOs are worth peanuts compared to most of these LPs. They need to get off these shitty exchanges to have a chance really.
 

MindzEye

Wayward Ditch Pig
Makes sense. Based on the little I hold, I'm perfectly fine with this. I think it does present a buying opportunity but shit needs to get moving in the US. Florida, NY, NJ, PA all appear to be on the verge of legalizing recreationally, with Illinois starting in January. That alone wrecks the population of Canada.. And that doesn't include the positive developments with SAFE (although the impeachment shit may put a hold on that). Yet these MSOs are worth peanuts compared to most of these LPs. They need to get off these shitty exchanges to have a chance really.
If SAFE passes the senate with the added language that is being rumoured, it would open up listing on Nasdaq, NYSE, and both TMX exchanges for US operating cannabis companies. Biggest game changer since Trudeau's election imo.
 

Preston

Well-known member
If SAFE passes the senate with the added language that is being rumoured, it would open up listing on Nasdaq, NYSE, and both TMX exchanges for US operating cannabis companies. Biggest game changer since Trudeau's election imo.
Yup. From what I understand though it's just a rumor from one person and potentially a longshot, especially with this impeachment shit and Mitch stating he won't bring anything to a vote. So while it will obviously happen eventually, it may not be anytime soon.

But yeah, if that does happen after these stocks have been beaten up as they have, a lot of those names are doubling within a week. No doubt.

Ill be looking to add slowly if we see another ~10% to the downside. OH in the 4's is attractive. As is GTII in the 8's or 9's and CURA in the 5's or 6's.
 

MindzEye

Wayward Ditch Pig
Yup. Liquidity issues and being on the shit hole CSE are major pitfalls of the US names right now. Fundamentally speaking, these names are almost all universally undervalued, but I look at the LPs and I'm like... Fucking lord, they still seem bloated to me. And until the LPs are repriced adequately, MSOs will go down with them.

On the plus side, my cash position is extremely substantial. But I don't have it in me to buy shit right now. These LPs suck dick and we're just starting to price that in.
I still don't quite grasp how people arrived at their valuations for the Canadian LP's, and why those over inflated valuations being wrong have soured so many people on cannabis. Canada had a chance to roll shit out properly and build a durable, successful cannabis industry, but they fucked it. Ontario is going to remain a retail basketcase for at least another year or two, BC is a mess, Quebec is a mess. The unimportant provinces seem to have figured it out from the onset and that's great, but like 65% of the population of Canada lives in a place that has massive bottled retail roll out. So much capital has been spent in Canada on grow facilities (many of which grow shit weed) and now the messaging is pivoting to Canadian LP's being uniquely positioned to "expand internationally". Fucking where? Europe? Where the legal regime is far from sorted out...and with what fucking money? APH and ACB are already starting to add debt to fund OPEX in Canada, and CGC is probably a proper 12 to 18 months away from functioning properly and looking to spend any real money on anything but righting the ship. There's no money to expand to any scale, and they're locked away in a shitty retail market.

They had better pivot hard into the US the second they're able to, or they're fucked.
 

MindzEye

Wayward Ditch Pig
Yup. From what I understand though it's just a rumor from one person
One incredibly connected, incredibly well positioned person and it makes a bucket of sense. Republican donors want in. Republicans don't give a **** about legalization, but they care about donation. Banking, Investment, & Insurance industries all want in.


and potentially a longshot, especially with this impeachment shit and Mitch stating he won't bring anything to a vote. So while it will obviously happen eventually, it may not be anytime soon.
Nah, Mitch isn't going to dick around his Kentucky hemp industry. The bi partisan group pushing this bill have smartly put pro Mitch language in it. Mitch will let this one slide through, it ticks too many boxes for Republicans and for Mitch personally.
 

Preston

Well-known member
They had better pivot hard into the US the second they're able to, or they're fucked.
Yup. That's basically what it comes down to. None of these companies are doing shit without real US exposure. That's where you make money. 1 billion in cannabis sales for all of Canada is pathetic. In Europe, the Cannabis market has been slow to move and not even remotely lucrative; there is no real path to profitability in sight there. It's the US. It's always the US. That is why I'm more bullish on CGC and CRON than any other LP despite their valuations - they're the only ones I see with a real chance long-term.
 

Preston

Well-known member
One incredibly connected, incredibly well positioned person and it makes a bucket of sense. Republican donors want in. Republicans don't give a **** about legalization, but they care about donation. Banking, Investment, & Insurance industries all want in.




Nah, Mitch isn't going to dick around his Kentucky hemp industry. The bi partisan group pushing this bill have smartly put pro Mitch language in it. Mitch will let this one slide through, it ticks too many boxes for Republicans and for Mitch personally.
I hope to **** you're right. It makes a lot of sense but in despair mode it's tough to see the light at the end of the tunnel. It's never easy psychologically.
 

MindzEye

Wayward Ditch Pig
ha I hate people's abuse of that quote. But it has never steered me wrong honestly. Buying low is frightening but works far more often than not.
Most people misuse it in my experience, typically to explain why a horseshit company's stock isn't going to keep going down.

I'm pretty comfortable with it's use regarding the Cannabis industry overall though. Cannabis isn't dead. It stumbled out of the starting gate, and needs to shake the tree a little bit, but it's just getting started.
 

Preston

Well-known member
Most people misuse it in my experience, typically to explain why a horseshit company's stock isn't going to keep going down.
Yup. That's where I'm at with it.

But I agree. The more this shit dumps, the greater the bounce. It's just a little tougher to see than December, for example, since SPY is near ATH and LPs still look bloated to me.

Short-term hopes rest almost entirely on positive developments in the US; don't really see any other catalyst getting things moving dramatically. But at the end of the day, the US was always the key. From day 1. That's where money is made.
 

MindzEye

Wayward Ditch Pig
Yeah, in retrospect I pivoted too early to the US and there was still a bunch of irrationality left in Canada, but whatever. This is where the money is going to be made long term.
 

CH1

The Artist Formerly Known as chiggins.
Looking at the folio sucks but I held my nose and bought some beaten names. VFF yesterday. IAN today.
 

Preston

Well-known member
Have my eye on LABS but have heard rumors of cheap paper. Kinda scares me away. Talk about a brutally wrecked name though. One of the worst performances in the sector over the last two months.

It's very difficult to pull the trigger in times like these. I know this is where money is made but man.. It just doesn't feel like we're all that close to a bottom.
 

MindzEye

Wayward Ditch Pig
Hit SEDAR and check their fins. Any bad paper will be listed there.

Still wouldn't pull the trigger until there is some sort of a bottoming and signs of a trend reversal though.
 

CH1

The Artist Formerly Known as chiggins.
I don't mind committing some cash to work right now. I like to scale in.

Speaking of bargain hunting, I bought calls (and stock) in ROKU. It's been crushed Lost $80 in two weeks.

Holding up well in sea of red today. Same with OTKA (another beaten down momo fave)
 

CH1

The Artist Formerly Known as chiggins.
Most people misuse it in my experience, typically to explain why a horseshit company's stock isn't going to keep going down.

I'm pretty comfortable with it's use regarding the Cannabis industry overall though. Cannabis isn't dead. It stumbled out of the starting gate, and needs to shake the tree a little bit, but it's just getting started.
It's a mini-version of what happened during the dotcom bubble. Everything .com (or weed) runs up. Pets.com, ISOL -- it don't matter.

Then the crash hits, everything gets crushed. But the internet doesn't die, and eventually the best companies survive and go on monster multi year runs.
 

CH1

The Artist Formerly Known as chiggins.
Today, I did more shopping and Canopy was my purchase. This am "felt" like the bottom. But only hindsight will tell.
 

MindzEye

Wayward Ditch Pig
Yeah a lot of selling that looked like capitulation and then hard bounces as I'm checking charts. Hoping to see some trend reversal set up emerge in the next week or so, would be nice to get some money making money again.
 
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