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Preston

Well-known member
I loaded up on GTII again today (already had a core position but decided to buy more), already took profits on most of what I bought today. I'm not convinced until WEED breaks high of yesterday. The relief bounce was always coming. It's the follow-through that matters and would somewhat convince me. Hope you guys are right but I'm playing it cautiously.
 

Preston

Well-known member
MSOs fly EOD while WEED sputters after not breaking any meaningful resistance today. The correct thing to do would have been to take profits. Because we ain't going anywhere until WEED bottoms. And with SPY looking like will be a shitstorm again tomorrow, we may be in for an ugly day.


OH, GTII, and CURA were my big winners today. Felt good but not really optimistic.
 

Preston

Well-known member
Eh, I don't think the cannabis market marches to WEED's drum anymore.
Correlations aren't tit for tat anymore and some names have their runs and do what they want (i.e. extractors this summer and GTII and OH/CL a couple weeks ago). But any sustained buying and bull run doesn't happen until WEED bottoms IMO. Things will get silly again when that happens.

Ideally a significant US MJ related catalyst comes while these names are wrecked though... Because that will cause one massive fucking explosion. Warren's nomination odds increasing with Bernie getting sick could help too. Was thinking that maybe that had something to do with names like CURA popping 15%.. but as Todd Harrison points out, the daily RSI on global cannabis was fucking 9 this morning. So as I said yesterday, a relief bounce was always going to come. It's the follow-through the matters. And the EOD action on the WEED (with the other LPs following) just made me feel like this was yet another bear flag at play here.
 

MindzEye

Wayward Ditch Pig
And the EOD action on the WEED (with the other LPs following) just made me feel like this was yet another bear flag at play here.
It could be, but at some point US plays are going to uncouple from the leadership of Canadian farmers stuck in a terrible retail market with grim growth potential for the next 12-24 months (basically until basketcase Ontario sorts it's retail situation out...23 open dispensaries right now in total, 5 in Toronto, Calgary has over 100 licenses approved within city limits alone). When I look at who popped hardest today, it was the MSO's that have been irrationally tied to Canada's sinking ship by the market. It was always assumed that the Canadian LP's were going to be capitalized well enough to run roughshod over small MSO's when US legalization occurred, shit, they were the biggest gainers on SAFE news recently. There's no rational reason to believe that anymore though given their challenges in accessing new capital (which they still need for OPEX because they're fucking bleeding). I think we're seeing the first real move towards a US dominated cannabis market here and an uncoupling from Canadian LP leadership.
 

Altair

Active member
It could be, but at some point US plays are going to uncouple from the leadership of Canadian farmers stuck in a terrible retail market with grim growth potential for the next 12-24 months (basically until basketcase Ontario sorts it's retail situation out...23 open dispensaries right now in total, 5 in Toronto, Calgary has over 100 licenses approved within city limits alone). When I look at who popped hardest today, it was the MSO's that have been irrationally tied to Canada's sinking ship by the market. It was always assumed that the Canadian LP's were going to be capitalized well enough to run roughshod over small MSO's when US legalization occurred, shit, they were the biggest gainers on SAFE news recently. There's no rational reason to believe that anymore though given their challenges in accessing new capital (which they still need for OPEX because they're fucking bleeding). I think we're seeing the first real move towards a US dominated cannabis market here and an uncoupling from Canadian LP leadership.
Probably for the best.

I remember posting a while back how companies in the canadian cannabis market were a bunch of clown shows.
 

MindzEye

Wayward Ditch Pig
Probably for the best.

I remember posting a while back how companies in the canadian cannabis market were a bunch of clown shows.
A pile of companies in Canada were known clown shows a long time ago. The underlying logic though was that the big LP's were professional operators, with full stocked warchests ready to be used for rapid global expansion when the time was right.

I don't even really blame them fully, the retail roll out has been incredibly inept at the provincial level. 23 open dispensaries in Ontario. 23. A year into legalization. Fucking amazing. They all must have been projecting better retail revenue, by a lot, than what has since materialized.
 

Altair

Active member
A pile of companies in Canada were known clown shows a long time ago. The underlying logic though was that the big LP's were professional operators, with full stocked warchests ready to be used for rapid global expansion when the time was right.

I don't even really blame them fully, the retail roll out has been incredibly inept at the provincial level. 23 open dispensaries in Ontario. 23. A year into legalization. Fucking amazing. They all must have been projecting better retail revenue, by a lot, than what has since materialized.
Anyone looking at the alcohol system in Canada could have seen this coming.

Canadian companies that have to navigate 10 different systems and regulatory bodies are not well possitioned to be world beaters.

That mixed with the shady finances behind a lot of these companies and the incredibly ridiculous valuations and this is what you get.

Canadian cannabis isnt going to be exported or have the leg up on the Americans, they are going to need to be protected from the US once the US legalizes cannabis.
 

CH1

The Artist Formerly Known as chiggins.
The original plan was for Canada’s big three (Canopy, Aurora, Aphria) would use their big balance sheets and first mover advantage to snap up US companies.

Didn’t work out that way. And now the US companies will make their own deals and eventually access big money
 

CH1

The Artist Formerly Known as chiggins.
Nice healthy close by Canopy.

Today was a blast in the overall market. I always buy a big swoosh down on bad news on red day #3.
 

CH1

The Artist Formerly Known as chiggins.
I play Canopy on the US side - CGC. I'm looking at 22.50 as support.
 

CH1

The Artist Formerly Known as chiggins.
We'll see if the green continues tomorrow, smacking the late shorts. Costco reports after the close. Interesting to see what they'll say about the US consumer -- which is basically all that matters for the market.
 

Preston

Well-known member
So ME may be right. Lots of rumblings about SAFE actually being likely. This might actually legitimately be a real real real good opportunity to accumulate. Because that would be a fucking game changer. I'll always be skeptical until we get confirmation, but seeing the rumors from a variety of sources is encouraging.
 

MindzEye

Wayward Ditch Pig
Theres provisions in it specifically to keep mitch happy and Republicans are worried that if they dont pass it, the ganj industry will never forgive them and donate exclusively to Democrats.

Throw in the fact that this is a banking bill as much or more than it's a weed bill and the banks will get what they want.

This is going to pass and probably with language allowing ganj to be held as an asset by funds, investment banks, etc. Probably done by early December
 

CH1

The Artist Formerly Known as chiggins.
I'm also confident the banking bill will pass.

And if for some reason it doesn't, it's just a matter of time. Warren wants full federal legalization. And Trump won't campaign against that, as he doesn't care either way.
 

CH1

The Artist Formerly Known as chiggins.
I'm having a good one with a boatload of ROKU calls.

Other than that, I'm not doing much. Interested to see how the US markets close.
 

Preston

Well-known member
I played VFF on open off the $11 support. The lack of jew buying power has really made that one a dud so far. Still in the trade for now but once that support breaks I'm out of there. Brutal looking chart. Don't hate the company but I'm not about to hold VFF bags.
 
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