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Preston

Well-known member
I have no feel for the sector anymore, so happy to hear about anything that sticks out for you.
I have a tougher time reading LPs than I do MSOs. I have no idea where the bottom will be.. I feel the energy changing a bit. Bear volume is certainly lacking compared to recent times and we're starting to get to a point where any potential news almost HAS to be good. It almost can't get any worse than this. This is how I felt with the broad market when we had the trade deal with China going to shit, Hong Kong shit happening, impeachment shit just getting underway... it was almost like, **** we're at rock bottom in terms of what is being priced in - the market HATES uncertainty. And whenever you see slight hope for some closure in a headline, the market reacted in a positive way. Starting to feel similar with MJ but... We could always go lower. It's really tough to say where the bottom will be. I'm betting on CGCs earnings being better than expected and starting a bit of a reversal. There's a possibility of a headline spin on earnings too. Not sure how much the market will buy it but the price fell almost 50% during the quarter ended 9/30, so derivative liabilities would have gone down accordingly. Of the total loss of $1.28B CAD for the June ending (Q1) quarter, they show a loss of $1.18B in warrant liabilities. They'll presumably show a huge gain because of the drop in stock price during Q2--enough for an Aphria-like "We're actually profitable" headline.


I think there's a clear cycle going on with MSOs. SP is very easily to manipulate with not a significant amount of money. A select few whales can make or break them. So it seems like they are being cycled through with TRUL being the prize these days. Granted, with the recent capital crunch across the sector, they are looking great fundamentally as well, but if CGC has another leg down and sets a lower low? They're my bet to be shorted to shit as they catch up to the other names that have bled of late. GTII was the prized darling not long ago.. Earnings came, they smashed projections, and they were TRUL-like for a long time; I sold most in the 14's and have reloaded since in the 10's (fully realizing that further downside is possible). CGC then got another leg down.. And GTII died a horrible death. FYI, I ran the numbers and projections for GTII's earnings in two weeks are shockingly low. They should be a lock to crush them. So perhaps that's a play. I think the fact that they didn't publicize their proforma revs last ER caught a few analysts for a loop. I'm expecting 71-75mil. Most projections have them in the mid-high 50's, which honestly has a 0% chance of happening.

Anyway the CSE/OTC names are nothing but trading vehicles at the moment. They are feasting on the weaker names and names with a cloud of uncertainty around them of course (CL-OH of late, IAN, MMEN etc) and leaving alone the TRUL's of the world (since their share unlock they've been strong as hell.. although if they get too far ahead and the sector doesn't turn around.. look out). But at the end of the day it's all a game. I have a decent read on it but a lot of the time the SPs are at the mercy of a select few high rollers. I mostly stay out and basically decide to use this as a buying opportunity for companies with a strong cash position and a clear path to profitability moving forward (which has become extremely important in this bear market). As I already said, GTII is my pick for that.
 
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CH1

The Artist Formerly Known as chiggins.
Yeah. It seems like every short is waiting to see who covers first.

I like GTII,,, but it trades like crap. As if someone knows earnings will suck. We'll see.

In other news, BIDU spent 6 hours grinding between 120 and 121. Until it broke out a bit and closed at HOD. I'm expecting some continuation tomorrow.

It's been a laggard for years....maybe its time has come.
 

Preston

Well-known member
I like GTII,,, but it trades like crap. As if someone knows earnings will suck. We'll see.
Look at the volume. No red flags imo. It's just a shitty stock on a shitty exchange. I've seen this from them before pre-earnings. Last time they popped on the day of earnings (about 10% I believe) after eating shit for a month or so. Earnings after the bell were great and they had a slow grind to 14+. No self respecting trader would trade this illiquid trash stock. I'm mostly in it for the fundies... Any US legislative progress and a potential uplist and that shit will pay.

As for their earnings... The nice thing about them is that they're a very safe bet to be terrific. Only mild concern is cash burn. They had a nice cash position after last ER and there are no real reasons why they burned through much... But that's always a risk.
 

Preston

Well-known member
So as I mentioned, GTI didn't report pro-forma last Q but you can calculate it at ~$60M based on the Integral Associates closing timing in June. This quarter will include a full 3 months of the Essence stores and a partial NY closing so we should easily see a good jump up from $60M with 5 store openings in Q3 as well. No idea what that does to the stock in a market like this but I think they are doing extremely well from an operational perspective and have a great capital position when capital is tough to find now (as I mentioned, assuming it's still there). Margins are second to only single state trulieve at 52% and they nearly profitable already. I think their more focused approach of deep penetration in meaningful states is the real key to success rather than having 1-2 dispensaries across 19 states. Largest operator in Nevada, and top 3 in IL, OHio, Pennsylvania, Connecticut. Florida will be a good market, NY market is finally growing right as they close the deal, they have 3 of the best retail licenses in all of Cali all won through application, Maryland doubled it's medical sales from last year. GTI has a strong licensing position in literally every state they are in, and every one of those states is growing. Shitty stock, great company.
 
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CH1

The Artist Formerly Known as chiggins.
The bad shorties must read ForumIce. Everything weedy is up. My CGC pre earning calls exploded for no reason. Strength across the board.

This "feels" like something.
 

CH1

The Artist Formerly Known as chiggins.
BTW, I think the overall market might soon throw up all over itself. It might appear dire, but will be a great buying opportunity for a year end ramp.
 

Preston

Well-known member
The bad shorties must read ForumIce. Everything weedy is up. My CGC pre earning calls exploded for no reason. Strength across the board.

This "feels" like something.
Could be this too.. But I don't see much red... Which would be the case if this was the main cause. "Feels" like something is right.

Was watching CURA closely on the laggard.. Once bids started coming up aggressively I was able to panic buy at 6.20. Shot up to 6.60 seconds later. Feels good to execute like that. Wonder if it has more juice. I'll probably sell at break even if it fades EOD. Hoping for one more pop to sell into though.
 

Preston

Well-known member
It all hinges on next week. Once the shitty earnings are out of the way, if the bulls survive without a dump taking place, this could start a rally. Big big if. But today was positive and was really the first time we've seen the shorts vulnerable.

We know they won't be pretty but expectations are lower than ever. A bull survival or even blast off next week kind of sets up beautifully for MSO earnings week the following week, eh?


But again... A big run up and shorts covering to earnings next week could only serve to increase expectations and provide a nice entry for shorts to play the ERs. I'm very very cautiously optimistic. Optimistic because action like today on this volume hasn't really happened in six months. Cautiously because well.. we're about to see some ugly financials and you can bet shorts will be keen to play them if we continue to run up next week.
 

CH1

The Artist Formerly Known as chiggins.
I'm not sure how it plays out (crystal ball is in the shop) but remember, bottoms by definition always involve doubt/skepticism/caution. They don't ring a bell to give everyone the all clear.

Obama and Stephen Harper tried back in 2009... told everyone to buy stocks when the S&P was under 700, but most people said "nah, I'm waiting for things to get worse"
 

aniablue

Member
AMPD up another 11.11% today Its been a real solid little beauty. I might divest at least half on Monday. Expecting a gap up type of day.
 

CH1

The Artist Formerly Known as chiggins.
If the bulls take over, I think VFF goes nuts. It’s been basing for the past month , showing decent demand
 

Preston

Well-known member
If the bulls take over, I think VFF goes nuts. It’s been basing for the past month , showing decent demand
I agree. Not sure about them longterm but you can't argue with their valuation and low float. It'll move quickly. But as always it probably doesn't matter who you pick... Most names will do 100% at the very least when the bulls take over. Would be lovely if that journey begins next week.
 

CH1

The Artist Formerly Known as chiggins.
Wow. The sketchy dude in Kensington Market had a better quarter dealing drugs.

$OGI Announced preliminary results for their quarter ending August 2019. Sales declined by 33% from their previous quarter ($24 million to $16 million).
 
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