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Kapanen Traded to Pitt

Preston

Well-known member
I can't wait till they draft Schneider. He's going to get a #alwaysdraftBradens poster in his bedroom and compare him to Slavin. And then I'll agree and he'll think I'm heckling him and get defensive.
 

zeke

Well-known member
I'll be sad when/if he finally figures out that expected goals is bullshit. but then he'll probably pretend he was saying that from the beginning.
don't make the mistake of thinking these guys are on your side when it comes to expected goals, pep.
 

mbow30

Well-known member
I'll be sad when/if he finally figures out that expected goals is bullshit. but then he'll probably pretend he was saying that from the beginning.
Publicly available stats aren’t great because of the amount of work required to validate / ensure quality.

I think most just pull from the event lots on nhl.com. One site (forget which) admitted they watch some games and then extrapolate.

I know somebody in a prominent position with an nhl teamwho got his start doing analytics work and the amount of time required to get good data is crazy.
 

Preston

Well-known member
Publicly available stats aren’t great because of the amount of work required to validate / ensure quality.

I think most just pull from the event lots on nhl.com. One site (forget which) admitted they watch some games and then extrapolate.

I know somebody in a prominent position with an nhl teamwho got his start doing analytics work and the amount of time required to get good data is crazy.
It's crazy how often I spot mistakes on Naturalstatrick, and that's from barely even paying attention. Hell, just a few weeks ago it was widely reported that Engvall missed an entire period because of the data on that site. Which was wrong. If they can't even figure out who is on the ice, just think about the amount of errors there are with shot attempts and the other shit. I do think it provides a nice snapshot over a whole season as the sample size increases, but game by game it's hard for me to trust the data much. It's understandably nowhere near perfect.
 
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BeLeafer

resurrected
It's pretty well established that NHL data has serious measurement error. I presume this is why there's a strong push for tracking.

The problem with maligning all the data for this is: (a) not overly serious in the bigger scheme, and; (b) can be used to insist eye test > ...

Like, I'm suspicious of Mucho's xgf% rating in the BJs series but it's probably right.
 

Preston

Well-known member
Yeah I'm fine with using it as a broad snapshot over a 5 game series. Just assume a fairly significant margin of error and you'll still get a nice idea.
 

zeke

Well-known member
I remember you saying much the same about Burke.
nah you didn't.

As much as I praised Burke for his trades for impact players, I criticized him for his top-6/bottom-6 truckulinsanity, his horrific free agent decisions, and his goaltending decisions.
 

Artnes

Well-known member
I can't wait till they draft Schneider. He's going to get a #alwaysdraftBradens poster in his bedroom and compare him to Slavin. And then I'll agree and he'll think I'm heckling him and get defensive.
Too many misses on WHL D for my liking.
 

zeke

Well-known member
I recall many expositions on why his teams were just great outside of the goaltending.
the debates back then were whether the leafs could make the playoffs, never about whether they were great.

and yes, as soon as a burke team got good goaltending, they made the playoffs.
 

leafman101

Well-known member
xGF% is pretty good:

1. Vegas 56.07%
2. Tampa 54.67%
5. Boston 52.64%
6. Colorado 52.47%
8. Dallas 52.27%

Its not a perfect representation of the best to worst teams in the league, but its also no fluke that 5 of the top 8 teams in xGF% this year are in round 2, and will likely be 3 of the 4 final 4 teams.

Philly, Islanders and Canucks were bottom 15 this year, but I don't think any of them are winning the cup.
 

Volcanologist

Well-known member
It's pretty well established that NHL data has serious measurement error. I presume this is why there's a strong push for tracking.

The problem with maligning all the data for this is: (a) not overly serious in the bigger scheme, and; (b) can be used to insist eye test > ...

Like, I'm suspicious of Mucho's xgf% rating in the BJs series but it's probably right.
he was garbage in the series. hell, Mitchy even SAID he sucked. not even engaged in the first game.

My problem is that when these stats don't match up with real world results, it's reality that is questioned because the stats say x and that's that.

It piles a whole bunch of credibility onto something that, frankly, completely lacks it from any objective view.

Statistical/analytical examination of hockey is a great idea and maybe one day we can have a set of reliable measures on the chaos of the game we all love. It's a pity that the argument is so often oversimplified into "stats vs. eyetest" and all the characterizations both sides have of each other.
 

Preston

Well-known member
Yup. I like using xgf. It has been an even better predictor than Corsi. It's the best we've got for now.
 
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