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Play-in Round: Toronto Maple Leafs (8) vs Columbus Blue Jackets (9)

zeke

Well-known member
Just realized that they have a handy "regulation points percentage" column on Href.

1. BOS .671
2. TBL .600
3. WSH .580
4. PHI .572
5. PIT .543
6. FLA .529
7. TOR .521
8. CBJ .521
9. NYR .521
10. CAR .515
11. NYI .507
12. NJD .449
13. BUF .435
14. MTL .415 :eek:
15. OTT .387
16. DET .246


1. COL .621
2. STL .599
3. VGK .542
4. EDM .542
5. MIN .522
6. DAL .514
7. WPG .514
8. NSH .514
9. VAN .500
10. CGY .486
11. ARZ .479
12. CHI .450
13. ANA .408
14. LAK .400
15. SJS .400
 

leaffan2005

Well-known member
Just realized that they have a handy "regulation points percentage" column on Href.

1. BOS .671
2. TBL .600
3. WSH .580
4. PHI .572
5. PIT .543
6. FLA .529
7. TOR .521
8. CBJ .521
9. NYR .521
10. CAR .515
11. NYI .507
12. NJD .449
13. BUF .435
14. MTL .415 :eek:
15. OTT .387
16. DET .246


1. COL .621
2. STL .599
3. VGK .542
4. EDM .542
5. MIN .522
6. DAL .514
7. WPG .514
8. NSH .514
9. VAN .500
10. CGY .486
11. ARZ .479
12. CHI .450
13. ANA .408
14. LAK .400
15. SJS .400
Maybe some of these statistics are backing the media's skepticism re: this series? CBJ looks pretty good in a lot of these advanced stat categories.
 

zeke

Well-known member
Maybe some of these statistics are backing the media's skepticism re: this series? CBJ looks pretty good in a lot of these advanced stat categories.
Well record in regulation time is no advanced stat (its just the old standings we grew up with)....but columbus no doubt had a solid year.

It was a bit of a surprise, though, especially in terms of goaltending.
 

Preston

Well-known member
Not quite sure Robertson is a downgrade on 2019-2020 version of AJ (unless you ask Bourne who wrote an essay about Robertson not being ready because he made some mistakes that every other player in the NHL makes but isn't micro-analyzed so those errors are not noticed).


Sorry, I know we aren't supposed to read mainstream media. I couldn't help it though.
 

LeafOfFaith

Well-known member
Must be an anxious time for AJ with everyone back and healthy like Soup and newbie like Robertson ready to show he’s expendable and he can’t even get a shot to prove his case yet.
 

LeafGm

Well-known member
Not quite sure Robertson is a downgrade on 2019-2020 version of AJ (unless you ask Bourne who wrote an essay about Robertson not being ready because he made some mistakes that every other player in the NHL makes but isn't micro-analyzed so those errors are not noticed).


Sorry, I know we aren't supposed to read mainstream media. I couldn't help it though.

Yeah, AJ was underwhelming this year, to say the least. I’d probably prefer it if he’s not ready to go for the Columbus series and we go with Robertson.

In an ideal world, Robertson establishes himself in the Columbus series, and then (assuming we win, of course) AJ bumps one of Goat or Clifford out of the lineup once he’s ready to return.
 

Preston

Well-known member
Yeah, AJ was underwhelming this year, to say the least. I’d probably prefer it if he’s not ready to go for the Columbus series and we go with Robertson.

In an ideal world, Robertson establishes himself in the Columbus series, and then (assuming we win, of course) AJ bumps one of Goat or Clifford out of the lineup once he’s ready to return.
In any case, AJ or anyone on the 4th line doesn't provide much extra value or increase your odds of winning much. It's certainly a nice luxury to have him available though. Injuries will probably happen.
 

LeafGm

Well-known member
In any case, AJ or anyone on the 4th line doesn't provide much extra value or increase your odds of winning much. It's certainly a nice luxury to have him available though. Injuries will probably happen.

I'll take as many good players and offensive depth in our lineup as possible, especially considering how bereft our bottom-6 was of scoring ability for big portions of this season due to injuries up and down our lineup.

Also gives Keefe more options to shuffle around the lineup when things aren't clicking.

FYI, Columbus plays the Bruins at 7 pm tonight.

Nice, looks like Sportsnet One will be broadcasting that one, so I'll have to check that out.
 

zeke

Well-known member
Mirtle's analysis of the series -- predicting a Leafs win. Very good analysis here:

Interesting analysis. Two things I note here, one to agree with the other to disagree with:

1. I like how he says that the BJs were probably less effected by injuries given how systems-dependent they are, which strikes me as probably true.

2. He states that he doesn't think goaltending will be a decisive factor in this series. Which may or may not be true.....but he fails to mention that goaltending WAS a decisive factor in each team's regular season. In other words, if suddenly goaltending is even now, then that actually swings the series significantly in the leafs' favor, and it should not be as close as the regular season records indicate.
 

zeke

Well-known member
The mtl-pit series is one of the reasons why I started digging up the all-situations xgf last night instead of just the 5v5 xgf. I actually do like the habs better than most, but giving the edge in this series is probably an error in analysis. Especially given deadline moves and injuries.

Superficially it seems like Tierney's numbers are largely made up of 5v5 xgf% over the full season. I'll be interested to see how his model turns out.
 
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