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The 2019-2020 MotherFucking Season Thread

LeafGm

Well-known member
Getting Muzzin for four years at a number less than six would be a coup.

Nothing longer than four years though, please.

If he re-signs, the immediate period afterwards could be interesting too. In be able to add any significant players who have term remaining, he had to know what was happening with Muzzin going forward. So him getting locked in could be the first domino to fall.
 

LeafGm

Well-known member
It's a tough line to toe, but yeah I don't disagree necessarily. Problem is that there aren't a lot of goalies who are going to be 1) available & 2) are better than Hutch. Anything with a functioning pulse is probably going to be signed to a legit NHL job. The group of goalies I'm seeing as maybes are

- Alex Lyon
- Garrett Sparks
- Louis Domingue
- Keith Kinkaid
- Laurent Broissoit

Domingue and Broissoit have both had tragically bad seasons but have NHL track records of success as backups. I'd be surprised if someone doesn't give both of them guaranteed NHL jobs. Lyon, Sparks, and Kinkaid aren't any better than Hutch.

From an organizational standpoint, unless there's a clear upgrade, I'd rather just roll with Hutch. One of our competitive advantages is that we can afford to sign a lot of guys to those guaranteed money contracts as pure depth (Aberg, Agostino, Hutch, etc). It's not Hutch's fault that he was bad in the NHL for us this season, we knew when we signed him that he was a bad goalie. He was a #3 who was asked to be a legit #2. That's on Dubas, not on Hutch. As an emergency starter, he's fine. I don't want to see us sour on these depth veterans we bring in because they can't carry water in a role they weren't brought in to fulfill. If last year I had told you that Hutch was going to play 15 games of .880 goaltending next season for us (in the first ~50 games of the season), you would have been rightfully livid at management.

So sure, if Domingue or Broissoit fall through the cracks, pay them the max that can be buried in the AHL without a cap penalty and let Hutch walk, absolutely. But odds of someone with a recent .910+ NHL season going without a full time job are pretty slim imo.

I agree it's going to be next to impossible to find a guy who's had a recent average-ish season at the NHL level and get them to be our third-string goalie. With that kind of track record, yeah, they would have an NHL job. You'd also have to get lucky to sneak them through waivers.

I just don't see the upside in keeping guys like Hutch or Kaskisuo around. We've given them enough opportunity and have a large enough sample size to say they're not prospects and they're not passable NHL players even on a fill-in basis.

Put the pro scouts and nerds to work and find a reclamation project or Euro. What's the risk? That they might not be capable of matching Hutch and giving us average AHL goaltending and an .890 SV% at the NHL level?
 

Artnes

Well-known member
They are all weirdos so he could very well bounce back to his normal numbers but the priority in the offseason should be finding his replacement

That takes priority over finding a top rhd
 

leafman101

Well-known member
The Athletic’s stats man Dom Luszczyszyn pulled together this chart of Muzzin’s likely age-related decline, which isn’t pretty. I’m glad he can’t do this for beer-league players on the wrong side of 30:



Dom’s model calculates, based on Muzzin’s results this season, that he has already begun to decline. By the fourth year of a new contract, he projects to only be a fringe top-four D. By the fifth, a third-pair contributor.

On a four-year deal, Dom’s projection has Muzzin’s average annual value at just under $4.4-million a season. On a five, that drops to $4-million.

So why sign him for more than $5-million a season?

So yeah. Its gotta be 4-5 years in the low to mid $4s otherwise it is hard to justify. Especially on a team with Sandin and Dermott.
 

MindzEye

Wayward Ditch Pig
Muzzin is real gud. But any extension he's likely to sign is going to hurt. Beyond the standard aging curve stuff, he both plays a pretty physically demanding style and already is a below average skater who can struggle with handling speed. Those are traits that don't tend to age well.

Defencemen in general don't seem to be aging well in the new era either. There are only 28 current NHL defenders who are 33 or older (which would be the mid point of a 4 year Muzzin extension) and that number drops to 18 who are 34 or older (last year of a 4 year extension).

So I'm not against it necessarily, as long as it's structured to be sent to Robidas island and Muzzin is okay with it being sent to Robidas island when the time has come. A 4-5 year extension is basically buying the 2 good years he likely has left.
 

trujaysfan

Well-known member
Front load and then deal him in year 3 once sandin is ready for a big role and you can likely get a 1st back for him.
 

zeke

Well-known member
those numbers seem whack to me - not even the projected ones, just the ones from this year and last year.


Last 5yrs ES:

15-16: B qoc, 0.86p/60, 0.58p1/60, 57.9cf% (+3.7relT), 56.5xgf% (+4.7relT)
16-17: B qoc, 0.59p/60, 0.34p1/60, 54.7cf% (+1.2relT), 51.9xgf% (-3.1relT)
17-18: B qoc, 1.02p/60, 0.44p1/60, 52.8cf% (+4.1relT), 50.1xgf% (+2.9relT)
18-19: B+ qoc, 1.13p/60, 0.71p1/60, 51.5cf% (+2.9relT), 51.5xgf% (+2.6relT)
19-20: B+ qoc, 0.76p/60, 0.41p1/60, 54.8cf% (+2.9relT), 52.9xgf% (+1.2relT)

I'd love to see what parts of his model actually see that big decline last year and this year over 17-18 and 16-17.
 

LeafGm

Well-known member
The other key to a Muzzin extension for me would be no NMC and trade protection that's as limited as possible. We need to be able to get out from under the contract if it ends up being necessary, and we also need to have the option of exposing him in the expansion draft.
 

MindzEye

Wayward Ditch Pig
AJ out 2 months. Requires surgery
His nightmare season continues.

On the upside, he wasn't doing much
On the downside, if he came around he would have been a nice add
On the upside, we can Kane rule the shit out of the deadline now with Ceci and AJ's cap hits. Neither looks to be back before the playoffs.
 

trujaysfan

Well-known member
His nightmare season continues.

On the upside, he wasn't doing much
On the downside, if he came around he would have been a nice add
On the upside, we can Kane rule the shit out of the deadline now with Ceci and AJ's cap hits. Neither looks to be back before the playoffs.
Approx 7.9M in space with those 2 out and now dubas has certainty with what he is playing with.
 
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