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The 2019-2020 MotherFucking Season Thread

zeke

Well-known member
The one thing I keep thinking about is that with rielly, sandin, and lilly here longterm we really shouldn't be paying any more money at all for dman PP production. That is literally completely wasted money.
 

leafman101

Well-known member
The problem is its highly unlikely a 31 year old will be the off-brand discounted item over 2-3 years, nevermind 4-5. Its a big risk. And the cost is a lot of dead money on a cap strapped team trying to compete in its star players' primes.

The Hawks had to let a lot of really good players go. But they found those off-brand discounts in guys like Hammer and Oduya.

The other side of the problem though is right now Muzzin is really good.
 

Preston

Well-known member
I mean if Muzzin turns into a horse shit piece of garbage 3rd pairing d by year 2 then yeah it's a bad idea. I just.. Don't really see that happening. If the progression of his contract is like the following (which I believe is more realistic and arguably a pretty pessimistic viewpoint), then I'm good with it:

Year 1: still an average top pair d (great value)
Year 2: solid 2nd paid pair d (good value)
Year 3: borderline 2nd paid d (meh value)
Year 4: bottom pair d (bad value)

And I can entirely live with this kind of progression especially if he's tradeable in year 3 or 4 without a NMC and a frontloaded contract.

Again, he's 30, turning 31. Not 39. Not sure what makes him more likely to fall off a cliff than Pietro.
 

Hoss

Active member
Nhl should look into what the NBA does.....after the deadline teams can buy out players and teams can pick up those buyouts if need be for injury purposes etc.
 

LeafOfFaith

Well-known member
I mean if Muzzin turns into a horse shit piece of garbage 3rd pairing d by year 2 then yeah it's a bad idea. I just.. Don't really see that happening. If the progression of his contract is like the following (which I believe is more realistic and arguably a pretty pessimistic viewpoint), then I'm good with it:

Year 1: still an average top pair d (great value)
Year 2: solid 2nd paid pair d (good value)
Year 3: borderline 2nd paid d (meh value)
Year 4: bottom pair d (bad value)

And I can entirely live with this kind of progression especially if he's tradeable in year 3 or 4 without a NMC and a frontloaded contract.

Again, he's 30, turning 31. Not 39. Not sure what makes him more likely to fall off a cliff than Pietro.
Skating and to a lesser extent physicality.
 

LeafOfFaith

Well-known member
This knee brace thing puts a shiver in me.

I've never been super sold on him, but really should we be signing him at all? I'm worried he takes Horton's place just as we get him off the books.
 

zeke

Well-known member
muzz's career low is 74 games played. he'll play over 70 games again this year. he's playing great this year, and has been our steadiest dman all year and boosted whoever has played with him.
 

LeafOfFaith

Well-known member
muzz's career low is 74 games played. he'll play over 70 games again this year. he's playing great this year, and has been our steadiest dman all year and boosted whoever has played with him.
But knees propped up by knee braces aren’t exactly a good investment. How long has he been playing with them?
 

Preston

Well-known member
If there was any concern about his knee he wouldn't be signed. He's fine. I don't think you realize how many players wear knee braces around the league. Chara has been wearing one for 5 years. This isn't some borderline 2nd pair d just getting by who, in one year of declining, could be a 3rd pair guy. He's legitimately their best defensman and would be the best d on many teams throughout the league.
 

MindzEye

Wayward Ditch Pig
He's legitimately their best defensman and would be the best d on many teams throughout the league.
Rielly, and maybe a few teams, yeah. "Many" is a over stating it.

I really don't think you guys are accepting the age curve here, or how much younger the league has trended the last few season. For all intents and purposes, he's 31 (he turns 31 on Feb 21). A 4 year extension would carry him through his age 31-34 seasons.

I'll borrow a Zeke tactic for a moment and use TOI/G as a rough analog for quality of play.

There are currently 95 defenders averaging 20 minutes a night. 20 of them are 31+. 18 of them are 32+. 14 of them are 33+. But this is where it starts to get interesting. Here's that group of 14

Burns, Suter, Weber, Keith, Gio, Goligoski, Edler, Niskanen, J Bo, Stralman, Chara, Green, Greene, Hainsey.

It's made up of a few distinct groups imo. The top end of the group are the obvious guys who were perennial norris candidates/winners. The elite of the elite. Another group is guys who were plus skaters or offensive defenders who have just aged relatively well. Then there's the group that I think Muzz would belong to if he got here. Edler-Niskanen-Greene-Hainsey. Greene and Hainsey are only here because they play for dreadful teams. So our aging curve comparables imo are Edler and Niskanen. 2 defender of roughly Muzzins calibre who make it to 33 yrs old while remaining a legit top 3 defender.

It gets more grim though when you look at 18+ minutes a night (now we're up to 22 defenders of 140). That only adds 4 additional defenders to the sample above. Yandle, Jack Johnson, Seabrook, Sekera. Basically a 33 yr old Tyson Barrie and 3 guys who are unplayable. 17+? Add another 4 (26 of 159). Marc Staal, Boychuk, Engellund, Braun

The aging curve for a player of Muzzin's calibre isn't gentle like Presto's post from earlier (Good top pairing to good 2nd pairing to meh 2nd pairing to good 3rd pairing defender, nice and gentle decline), it's a lot more likely to go Fringe top pairing-mediocre 2nd pairing-sheltered veteran 3rd pairing-albatross.

The defenders that age gracefully are the ones who peaked at the very top. Muzz isn't that guy.
 
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