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The 2019-2020 MotherFucking Season Thread

zeke

Well-known member
tbh I don't see dubas signing a top end contract for a 31yr old. doesn't fit his MO at all, no matter how good that player is or has been.
 

LeafGm

Well-known member
tbh I don't see dubas signing a top end contract for a 31yr old. doesn't fit his MO at all, no matter how good that player is or has been.

Yep.

As great as Pietrangelo has been, signing him for seven years at massive money would scare the hell out of me.
 

zeke

Well-known member
so they fixed all the xgf issues.

Toronto Defense (5v5 adj)

54.75ca/60 (#17)
2.16xga/60 (#14)
.9055sv% (#26)
2.87ga/60 (#25)

so the numbers think we're an average defensive team so far, with bad goaltending.

Toronto Offense (5v5 adj)

60.58cf/60 (#3)
2.14xgf/60 (#19)
.0920sh% (#8)
2.85gf/60 (#9)

Numbers think we're getting plenty of offensive possession, but not so many quality shots. Despite that, we're still posting an above average shooting percentage, which might be luck, or might be a different indication that our shot quality is better than xgf thinks, or may just be our skill level shining through.


The important takeaway here is that the difference between our near elite cf% (#6), and our subpar xgf% (#21), is all about what the numbers say about our offense, not our defense. Both numbers agree that our defense has been average.
 

Artnes

Well-known member
Not sure if the heat maps have been adjusted yet looking at these it would seem the Leafs have a heavier presence in the HD zone than the Canes yet their xgf are not even close.

Canes are slightly ahead in SF/60 at 31.65

What am I missing?

Leafs 5v5
1573153836764.png

Canes 5v5
1573154066130.png
 

LeafGm

Well-known member
The Seabrook deal should be stapled to the head of anyone interested in Pietro

Yuuuup.

You sign a defenseman that age to a long-term big money deal, then for most (if not all) of the deal, you'll mostly be paying him for what he did in the past rather than what can do you for you now and going forward..

Bad enough when you're doing that for a guy that played a big role in your team winning three Cups. Even worse when you're ponying up to reward a past-his-prime player for what he did while playing for another team.
 

zeke

Well-known member
Not sure if the heat maps have been adjusted yet looking at these it would seem the Leafs have a heavier presence in the HD zone than the Canes yet their xgf are not even close.

Canes are slightly ahead in SF/60 at 31.65

What am I missing?

Leafs 5v5
View attachment 5125

Canes 5v5
View attachment 5126

do me a favour and pull up the map for NSH (which is the only other team with as close as big a gap as TOR), and maybe for MIN and WPG too (lesser gap but still a decent gap).
 

Artnes

Well-known member
Odd strategy but 2nd in 5v5 GF so I guess its working

Not a fan of it on the PP though being currently 20th in SF and 15th in GF
 

leafman101

Well-known member
I wonder how much of it is from losing the stretch pass

Also replacing Gards with Barrie. Gards was elite xG driver. Although he's been pretty bad this year.
 

Artnes

Well-known member
Barrie has fallen off a cliff so far

18/19


Barrie - 55.09
Gardiner - 49.95

19/20 (82gm prorated)

Barrie - 48.38
Gardiner - 46.68
 

zeke

Well-known member
Tbh I'm legit encouraged that xga looks so much better this year. I just can't worry about this offense, especially when they're still scoring plenty.

But there's good case study here in why isolating xga and xgf at the player level doesn't actually tell us about the player, but more about the system the player is in.

Last Year ---> This Year

Matthews 3.17xgf --> 2.63xgf (-.54), 2.87xga --> 1.92xga (-.95)
Rielly 3.11xgf --> 2.34xgf (-.77), 2.93xga --> 2.41xga (-.52)

These guys didn't just drastically get worse offensively and better defensively, but they're clearly playing a different system.
 

GEEMAN

Active member
The Seabrook deal should be stapled to the head of anyone interested in Pietro
Totally different contracts and team structure . Chicago`s window was over and Seebrook was in decline

Hawks paid him as a thank you

Your window to win is now and Pietro is a stud , deal with the cap issues later . No one cares if you win a cup
 

Killer93

Active member
Not that this should be a surprise but word is Spezza and his agent have approached Dubas regarding being moved or waived.

Bruins have interest in Spezza
 
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