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The 2019-2020 MotherFucking Season Thread

leaffan2005

Well-known member
Matthews' xgf% head to head against top-2 C:

Couturier 100.0
Point 100.0
Stamkos 100.0
Koivu 97.7
Schenn 87.1
Karlsson 74.1
Couture 71.0
Krejci 63.1
Staal 57.8
O'Reilly 56.4
Bergeron 48.6
Eichel 45.9
Kopitar 41.8
Backstrom 39.5
Kuznetsov 23.7

i think that's close to accurate.
I'll assume the Couturier and Tampa line stuff is an outlier given limited shifts against those lines. Has been outplayed by Bergeron, Kopitar, Eichel, and Backstrom, and he has outplayed Karlsson, Koivu, Staal.

As we said, outplayed the weaker lines and been outplayed by the stronger lines, some by a fair margin.
 

Preston

Well-known member
I'll assume the Couturier and Tampa line stuff is an outlier given limited shifts against those lines. Has been outplayed by Bergeron, Kopitar, Eichel, and Backstrom, and he has outplayed Karlsson, Koivu, Staal.

As we said, outplayed the weaker lines and been outplayed by the stronger lines, some by a fair margin.
Yeah I mean those numbers kinda proved our point. I don't doubt that he shits on most lines. I'm not afraid of him against fucking Koivu or Staal lmao. It's Auston fucking "horse cock" Matthews. Mans is a beast.
 

leafman101

Well-known member
Last 2 years vs #1 lines
Barkov 20:48, 47.5 xGF%
Stamkos 19:00, 58.98
Kuznetsov 18:37, 38.24
Kopitar 13:58, 39.91
Bergeron 12:10, 53.71
Crosby 10:09, 17.68
O'Reilly 9:13, 62:96
Draisaitl 8:16, 72/26
Eichel 8:15, 52.16
Couture 6:31, 76.45
Aho 6:31, 68.64
Karlsson 6:04 74.09
Barzal 5:10, 23.33



Had a handful bad games he got filled in (Barzal, Crosby, Kuznetsov, Kopitar) handful he dominated (Stamkos, O'Reilly, Draisaitl, Couture, Aho, Karlsson) and the rest slightly below/above average (Barkov, Bergeron, Eichel).

He has outplayed plenty of elite lines.
 

Artnes

Well-known member
Elite talent vs elite talent should arguably be a wash though when given enough of a sample size. The scale could tip on any given night

But again as you mentioned you have to take into consideration the entire line and not just focus on the forward group
 

Preston

Well-known member
Last 2 years vs #1 lines
Barkov 20:48, 47.5 xGF%
Stamkos 19:00, 58.98
Kuznetsov 18:37, 38.24
Kopitar 13:58, 39.91
Bergeron 12:10, 53.71
Crosby 10:09, 17.68
O'Reilly 9:13, 62:96
Draisaitl 8:16, 72/26
Eichel 8:15, 52.16
Couture 6:31, 76.45
Aho 6:31, 68.64
Karlsson 6:04 74.09
Barzal 5:10, 23.33



Had a handful bad games he got filled in (Barzal, Crosby, Kuznetsov, Kopitar) handful he dominated (Stamkos, O'Reilly, Draisaitl, Couture, Aho, Karlsson) and the rest slightly below/above average (Barkov, Bergeron, Eichel)
There we go. I'm not saying he's bad or that he gets filled in by every first liner including Eric Staal or some shit. I just want more. I simply hope for a top 2 or 3 line in the NHL is all. But that might be the Rielly effect holding him back; it's hard to say.
 

zeke

Well-known member
I'll assume the Couturier and Tampa line stuff is an outlier given limited shifts against those lines. Has been outplayed by Bergeron, Kopitar, Eichel, and Backstrom, and he has outplayed Karlsson, Koivu, Staal.

As we said, outplayed the weaker lines and been outplayed by the stronger lines, some by a fair margin.
Lol.

"Nice data but I'm gonna assume it's all flawed and I'm right"
 

zeke

Well-known member
Last 2 years vs #1 lines
Barkov 20:48, 47.5 xGF%
Stamkos 19:00, 58.98
Kuznetsov 18:37, 38.24
Kopitar 13:58, 39.91
Bergeron 12:10, 53.71
Crosby 10:09, 17.68
O'Reilly 9:13, 62:96
Draisaitl 8:16, 72/26
Eichel 8:15, 52.16
Couture 6:31, 76.45
Aho 6:31, 68.64
Karlsson 6:04 74.09
Barzal 5:10, 23.33



Had a handful bad games he got filled in (Barzal, Crosby, Kuznetsov, Kopitar) handful he dominated (Stamkos, O'Reilly, Draisaitl, Couture, Aho, Karlsson) and the rest slightly below/above average (Barkov, Bergeron, Eichel).

He has outplayed plenty of elite lines.
Thank you muchly
 

leaffan2005

Well-known member
Lol.

"Nice data but I'm gonna assume it's all flawed and I'm right"
Why don't you check and see how many shifts he took against those top three examples you posted? Unless you think that 100 xGF% is actually meaningful outside of a normal sample size.

For somebody who loves numbers you sure misuse them regularly. Your numbers proved the opposing point quite well. Now, the two-year sample changes things a lot and can be discussed as a counter. But this year's numbers pretty clearly show he has been outplayed by pretty much every "top" centre.
 

Preston

Well-known member
Stamkos is a fagpouchie. I don't give a **** about him. I want to see him do better against the Crosby's, Nate Mack's, Barkov's and Backstrom's of the world. My expectations are probably too high though in all honesty. He's allowed to be super elite without being a top 3 player on earth, especially when he has Mo attempting to stop other teams top lines. It's his xGA that takes a hit and that may be a result of Mo being miscast more than Matthews being that much worse than these other guys.
 

zeke

Well-known member
Why don't you check and see how many shifts he took against those top three examples you posted? Unless you think that 100 xGF% is actually meaningful outside of a normal sample size.

For somebody who loves numbers you sure misuse them regularly. Your numbers proved the opposing point quite well. Now, the two-year sample changes things a lot and can be discussed as a counter. But this year's numbers pretty clearly show he has been outplayed by pretty much every "top" centre.
Lol. I listed every 1 and 2C they had numbers for.

So you're calling me wrong based on an assumption that he actually plays 3rd and 4th linenCs most of the time.
 

leaffan2005

Well-known member
Lol. I listed every 1 and 2C they had numbers for.

So you're calling me wrong based on an assumption that he actually plays 3rd and 4th linenCs most of the time.
You are wrong because you are disputing a very simple fact. It's not really relevant how he did in a few shifts against some of the guys you pointed out at the top of your list. Context is everything. The other guys you listed are very relevant to the discussion given he played against them an amount conducive to analysis. And out of those guys, the elite ones have gotten the better of him, and the non-elite ones he has outplayed. Not sure where the confusion is on this.
 

MindzEye

Wayward Ditch Pig
What you want is a top centre that scores a tonne of points, and allows next to none... and a unicorn.
The names mentioned specifically earlier were Bergeron and Eichel. Woooops.

Now it's different names. Preston is being Preston again.
 

Preston

Well-known member
One of those names is not like the others.

But because Matthews has bad numbers against him, Backstrom is super elite for the purpose of this conversation eh?

Sweet.

Okay remove Backstrom if you want? If he's not elite then maybe the situation is more concerning than I felt. Point still stands though.
 

leaffan2005

Well-known member
What you want is a top centre that scores a tonne of points, and allows next to none... and a unicorn.
Would be nice for him to get the better end of a top matchup every once in a while. He did it a bunch last year, hasn't thus far this year. Not too much to ask for a guy making >$11 million and widely known as one of the top players in the world.
 

Preston

Well-known member
I'm a bit confused at this reaction. Matthews is absolutely incredible. I'm greedy and want him to be McDavid or Crosby good. And it was taken as a negative somehow? Do you guys hold Aphria by any chance? You sound a lot like their holders....
 

MindzEye

Wayward Ditch Pig
Okay remove Backstrom if you want? If he's not elite then maybe the situation is more concerning than I felt. Point still stands though.
Except the point doesnt stand. The numbers show that matthews either holds his own or caves in the majority of top centers. I'm imagine that if we looked at other top centers, they would have similar distributions.

Your expectation here is that he literally caves in every other center in the league. BG is right, you're looking for a unicorn
 

Preston

Well-known member
Except the point doesnt stand. The numbers show that matthews either holds his own or caves in the majority of top centers. I'm imagine that if we looked at other top centers, they would have similar distributions.

Your expectation here is that he literally caves in every other center in the league. BG is right, you're looking for a unicorn
I might be looking for someone with better d behind him honestly. But nope, not a unicorn. Just a top 3 player/line, which I know isn't realistic anyway. It's not a requirement.. Just something that would be nice to have.
 

Preston

Well-known member
Are you going to tell me that Aphria getting a loan is the best thing any LP has ever done and anyone who argues otherwise deserves a death sentence now?
 
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