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The 2019-2020 MotherFucking Season Thread

Preston said:
I appreciate these explanations. Sometimes the nerds do a poor job explaining these stats to the meat heads. They really are simple and fact-based at the end of the day. If you explain it like that I think they may understand it better. You literally can't argue against that shit. They're facts. But nerds often act like it's quantum physics.
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There's very little that is "advanced" about these stats. % of scoring chances for and against while you're on the ice, isn't some sort of alchemy. It's just applying shit basic tracking and statistics to the sport. If 55% of the scoring chances that happen on the ice, are taken by the other team...you might be shit. There might be some extenuating circumstance regarding your usage (QoC, QoT, Zone Starts, etc) but that they occur in those proportions is just beyond argument.
 
BeLeafer said:
From what I've seen, when they actually try to get advanced, it's often amateur hour.
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All of the real nerds got hired by NHL teams to make proprietary stuff. These are the left over nerds on twitter that post things the real nerds make fun of at conferences.
 
I'm just going to use xGF% to simplify it all, because there's a lot of small sample stuff in these obviously

Gauthier:

With Shore: 39.5%
Without Shore: 46.9%

With Timashov: 40.8%
Without Timashov: 46.2%

With Petan: 70.0%
Without Petan: 38.3%

So yeah, without Nic Petan on his line this year, Gauthier has looked like a AHL 4th liner.
 
Not asking you to do any more work, but I’d be curious how much time was spent with each, and what he was like with any other line mates. Like the Sen. Tough to believe Petan elevates anyone’s game.
 
zeke said:
The 4th liners were getting some really extreme zone start usage this year.
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Sure, but a small fraction of total shifts start with a faceoff anyway.

Babcock was definitely part of the problem with their numbers though, yeah.
 
LeafOfFaith said:
Not asking you to do any more work, but I’d be curious how much time was spent with each, and what he was like with any other line mates. Like the Sen. Tough to believe Petan elevates anyone’s game.
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We've had the conversation before man, you value a some of the wrong things as the "little things" and ignore a bunch of other little things that actually drives play. I'm not a Petan fan at all, but he's pretty great at defensive zone exits and offensive zone entries. Does he do a whole lot with with the puck once it's in better areas of the ice? Nah. But his puck handling and passing is quite good at advancing the puck into better territory.

As for the rest of the Gauthier numbers...bro...honestly...I don't want to spend the time on them. They're ugly, across the board. He's a bad hockey player.
 
Keefe: “It’s looking that way, we have some decisions,” Keefe said after Friday at a practice rink opposite the Oilers’ workout at Rogers Place. “The Goat’s back in for sure, but I’m not sure about the rest.”

If we’re to believe that Keefe, like Dubas, believes in the nerd stats and bases his decisions on them, why does he want Goat back in for sure, without qualification? I assume he’s learning more about the players and the team each day, so there’s a reason he’s decided on putting him back in now ahead of the others.
 
I think it's important to note that while all 3 of Goat, Tima, and Shore do have awful nerd stats, all three were used in one of the more bizarre ways any 4th line in the league is used - I.e. as a regular defensive zone faceoff line. In fact I've yet to see any line in any of my comps have a similarly massively negative ozs-dzs differential.

And, in fact, Goat's nerd stats have actually been legit great - 68.5cf%, 64.5xgf% - in the 6gms he's played for keefe with much less extreme usage.
 
I think it was the engvall-goat-timashov trio that kind of dominated for a few games there iirc.
 
Tough to read too much into the minor roster shuffles. But hopefully that's a sign that Moore will be ready soon. As well, that Barrie either isn't too seriously hurt, or if he is going to miss time that Marincin won't be considered to fill in for him. Bring on Sandin or Lilly.
 
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