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The MotherFucking Off-Season Thread

Preston

Well-known member
fair.

5v5 Lines This Year: Minutes, Expected Goals Differential, Actual Goals Differential

Min 20min

1st Lines

Hyman-Matthews-Marner: 376.52min, 57.3xgf%, 57.8gf%
Johnsson-Matthews-Nylander: 341.42min, 56.3xgf%, 55.4gf%
Kapanen-Matthews-Nylander: 61.47min, 50.3xgf%, 100.0gf%
Johnsson-Matthews-Marner: 55.83min, 42.4xgf%, 48.3gf%
Nylander-Matthews-Marner: 39.25min, 64.4xgf%, 00.0gf%
Tavares-Matthews-Nylander: 36.73min, 77.2xgf%, 100.0gf%
Tavares-Matthews-Marner: 29.53min, 66.1xgf%, 100.0gf%

2nd Lines

Kerfoot-Tavares-Nylander: 195.65min, 56.2xgf%, 50.8gf%
Hyman-Tavares-Marner: 100.0min, 55.7xgf%, 48.7gf%
Kapanen-Tavares-Marner: 80.22min, 38.0xgf%, 11.4gf%
Mikheyev-Tavares-Hyman: 72.30min, 62.7xgf%, 68.6gf%
Hyman-Tavares-Kapanen: 58.38min, 35.4xgf%, 23.6gf%
Kerfoot-Tavares-Hyman: 44.53min, 45.6xgf%, 42.1gf%
Malgin-Tavares-Nylander: 41.12min, 52.2xgf%, 23.4gf%
Moore-Tavares-Marner: 26.37min, 29.5xgf%, 33.3gf%
Hyman-Tavares-Nylander: 22.38min, 57.9xgf%, 53.0gf%
Engvall-Tavares-Nylander: 20.72min, 41.8xgf%, 48.9gf%

Injured 2nd Lines?

Mikheyev-Kerfoot-Marner: 51.77min, 53.2xgf%, 25.3gf%
Mikheyev-Kerfoot-Nylander: 24.88min, 45.6xgf%, 48.2gf%

3rd Lines

Engvall-Kerfoot-Kapanen: 76.18min, 56.4xgf%, 49.5gf%
Engvall-Spezza-Kapanen: 69.10min, 50.3xgf%, 70.0gf%
Mikheyev-Kerfoot-Moore: 66.17min, 48.4xgf%, 66.8gf%
Mikheyev-Kerfoot-Kapanen: 53.35min, 60.4xgf%, 52.2gf%
Mikheyev-Kerfoot-Engvall: 47.40min, 59.7xgf%, 80.8gf%
Johnsson-Engvall-Kapanen: 38.30min, 63.8xgf%, 53.2gf%
Kerfoot-Spezza-Kapanen: 31.42min, 58.9xgf%, 52.4gf%
Hyman-Kerfoot-Kapanen: 22.73min, 46.3xgf%, 75.9gf%
Johnsson-Kerfoot-Kapanen: 20.78min, 39.2xgf%, 00.0gf%

Injured 3rd Lines?

Clifford-Spezza-Kapanen: 37.70min, 47.6xgf%, 31.8gf%
Moore-Spezza-Kapanen: 37.32min, 61.8xgf%, 00.0gf%
Petan-Spezza-Kapanen: 20.10min, 62.8xgf%, 00.0gf%

4th Lines

Timashov-Shore-Gauthier: 94.35min, 35.2xgf%, 50.4gf%
Timashov-Engvall-Gauthier: 38.70min, 64.3xgf%, 51.9gf%
Timashov-Gauthier-Spezza: 36.42min, 50.7xgf%, 83.2gf%
Clifford-Gauthier-Spezza: 26.32min, 39.7xgf%, 51.8gf%
Mikheyev-Spezza-Petan: 24.47min, 66.5xgf%, 48.8gf%





The 3rd line combos were mostly all good - comfortably positive both in goals and expected goals.

The only line that was a negative overall seems to be that 2nd line, no matter really which combos were used.
TLDR: Kapanen does not play well with others. Capable 3rd liner though. Leafs got the 15th pick in the draft for a 3rd liner. Heh.
 

Leafin'

Well-known member
So I like the idea of signing Pietrangelo. On one side we’d be getting an elite player for a few years. On the other he’d be a declining player heading into his 30’s.

last time we had an opportunity like this we whiffed on an elite defender in chara. Instead our dummy gm decided it was a better idea to spread the money between two depth players in Komisarek and Hagman. Didn’t work out for us very well. And that’s with not knowing if we could’ve even signed chara. I’m sure we might’ve got him if we forked over the requisite dollars to get it done.

is Pietrangelo as good as chara was? Not sure. Will he age as well as chara? Probably not. If we can make it work financially I think it’s the right move. Johnsson + Andersen + Kerfoot money out with cheaper replacements should be enough to get it done.

Rielly - Pietrangelo
Muzzin - *

is a hell of a top 3. As good as I’ve seen in my lifetime probably.
 

Wayward DP

Well-known member
fair.

5v5 Lines This Year: Minutes, Expected Goals Differential, Actual Goals Differential

Min 20min

1st Lines

Hyman-Matthews-Marner: 376.52min, 57.3xgf%, 57.8gf%
Johnsson-Matthews-Nylander: 341.42min, 56.3xgf%, 55.4gf%
Kapanen-Matthews-Nylander: 61.47min, 50.3xgf%, 100.0gf%
Johnsson-Matthews-Marner: 55.83min, 42.4xgf%, 48.3gf%
Nylander-Matthews-Marner: 39.25min, 64.4xgf%, 00.0gf%
Tavares-Matthews-Nylander: 36.73min, 77.2xgf%, 100.0gf%
Tavares-Matthews-Marner: 29.53min, 66.1xgf%, 100.0gf%

2nd Lines

Kerfoot-Tavares-Nylander: 195.65min, 56.2xgf%, 50.8gf%
Hyman-Tavares-Marner: 100.0min, 55.7xgf%, 48.7gf%
Kapanen-Tavares-Marner: 80.22min, 38.0xgf%, 11.4gf%
Mikheyev-Tavares-Hyman: 72.30min, 62.7xgf%, 68.6gf%
Hyman-Tavares-Kapanen: 58.38min, 35.4xgf%, 23.6gf%
Kerfoot-Tavares-Hyman: 44.53min, 45.6xgf%, 42.1gf%
Malgin-Tavares-Nylander: 41.12min, 52.2xgf%, 23.4gf%
Moore-Tavares-Marner: 26.37min, 29.5xgf%, 33.3gf%
Hyman-Tavares-Nylander: 22.38min, 57.9xgf%, 53.0gf%
Engvall-Tavares-Nylander: 20.72min, 41.8xgf%, 48.9gf%

Injured 2nd Lines?

Mikheyev-Kerfoot-Marner: 51.77min, 53.2xgf%, 25.3gf%
Mikheyev-Kerfoot-Nylander: 24.88min, 45.6xgf%, 48.2gf%

3rd Lines

Engvall-Kerfoot-Kapanen: 76.18min, 56.4xgf%, 49.5gf%
Engvall-Spezza-Kapanen: 69.10min, 50.3xgf%, 70.0gf%
Mikheyev-Kerfoot-Moore: 66.17min, 48.4xgf%, 66.8gf%
Mikheyev-Kerfoot-Kapanen: 53.35min, 60.4xgf%, 52.2gf%
Mikheyev-Kerfoot-Engvall: 47.40min, 59.7xgf%, 80.8gf%
Johnsson-Engvall-Kapanen: 38.30min, 63.8xgf%, 53.2gf%
Kerfoot-Spezza-Kapanen: 31.42min, 58.9xgf%, 52.4gf%
Hyman-Kerfoot-Kapanen: 22.73min, 46.3xgf%, 75.9gf%
Johnsson-Kerfoot-Kapanen: 20.78min, 39.2xgf%, 00.0gf%

Injured 3rd Lines?

Clifford-Spezza-Kapanen: 37.70min, 47.6xgf%, 31.8gf%
Moore-Spezza-Kapanen: 37.32min, 61.8xgf%, 00.0gf%
Petan-Spezza-Kapanen: 20.10min, 62.8xgf%, 00.0gf%

4th Lines

Timashov-Shore-Gauthier: 94.35min, 35.2xgf%, 50.4gf%
Timashov-Engvall-Gauthier: 38.70min, 64.3xgf%, 51.9gf%
Timashov-Gauthier-Spezza: 36.42min, 50.7xgf%, 83.2gf%
Clifford-Gauthier-Spezza: 26.32min, 39.7xgf%, 51.8gf%
Mikheyev-Spezza-Petan: 24.47min, 66.5xgf%, 48.8gf%





The 3rd line combos were mostly all good - comfortably positive both in goals and expected goals.

The only line that was a negative overall seems to be that 2nd line, no matter really which combos were used.
I'm concerned that we're going to start receiving negative value on the Tavares contract as soon as next year... ( / did we already this year? :/)

Dude was never a great skater and he ain't getting faster in a league that is.
 

trujaysfan

Well-known member
So I like the idea of signing Pietrangelo. On one side we’d be getting an elite player for a few years. On the other he’d be a declining player heading into his 30’s.

last time we had an opportunity like this we whiffed on an elite defender in chara. Instead our dummy gm decided it was a better idea to spread the money between two depth players in Komisarek and Hagman. Didn’t work out for us very well. And that’s with not knowing if we could’ve even signed chara. I’m sure we might’ve got him if we forked over the requisite dollars to get it done.

is Pietrangelo as good as chara was? Not sure. Will he age as well as chara? Probably not. If we can make it work financially I think it’s the right move. Johnsson + Andersen + Kerfoot money out with cheaper replacements should be enough to get it done.

Rielly - Pietrangelo
Muzzin - *

is a hell of a top 3. As good as I’ve seen in my lifetime probably.

Didnt we actually have a higher bid on chara than boston did but he decided against toronto after all the leafs vs sens series?
 

Leafin'

Well-known member
Not sure. It’s possible. At that point you make an offer he can’t refuse. Easy to say after the fact knowing how he’d turn out.

this is our turn to get the stud defender. Though I’m sure there will be someone here who will poopoo the deal like they did the Tavares signing no matter what.
 

zeke

Well-known member
Not sure. It’s possible. At that point you make an offer he can’t refuse. Easy to say after the fact knowing how he’d turn out.

this is our turn to get the stud defender. Though I’m sure there will be someone here who will poopoo the deal like they did the Tavares signing no matter what.

I think the poopooers look righter so far.
 

zeke

Well-known member
Remember, the Blues won the cup with Bo-Parayko playing the most even strength minutes against the top competition.
 

zeke

Well-known member
zeke has Pietro shown any signs of decline when looking at the advanced stats?


That's tricky - his analytics have improved the last 2yrs, but from where I sit that's because Parayko took over the tough matchup minutes partway through last year. (I'm gonna include Rielly as a Control group for elite qoc).

2017

Rielly: +24.0qoc, +1.2dzdiff, 51.0xgf%, -.02rel
Pietro: +17.4qoc, +3.0dzdiff, 50.8xgf%, +.01rel
Parayko: +3.3qoc, -0.9dzdiff, 51.0xgf%, +.03rel

2018

Rielly: +22.5qoc, +2.0dzdiff, 50.3xgf%, +.00rel
Pietro: +16.5qoc, +2.0dzdiff, 50.9xgf%, -.11rel
Parayko: +4.0qoc, -0.2dzdiff, 54.9xgf%, +.28rel

2019

Rielly: +17.9qoc, -1.4dzdiff, 51.2xgf%, -.06rel
Pietro: +12.5qoc, -1.4dzdiff, 54.2xgf%, +.00rel
Parayko: +13.7qoc, +1.2dzdiff, 54.4xgf%, +.01rel

2020

Rielly: +11.6qoc, -3.0dzdiff, 51.4xgf%, -.03rel
Pietro: +2.4qoc, -0.8dzdiff, 53.3xgf%, +.27rel
Parayko: +11.2qoc, +4.0dzdiff, 49.5xgf%, -.11rel


So back when Pietro was getting near Rielly-style top usage, he was putting up Rielly-style break-even analytics or a bit worse. (While if you remember Parayko was an analytics darling in secondary usage at the time.).

With them now having completely flipped roles, it's Parayko putting up the break-even numbers while Pietro's numbers have been boosted by getting the lighter load, while Parayko is no longer the analytics darling that he was.
 

LeafOfFaith

Well-known member
Either way, seems like he's saying Pietro has been a RHD version of Rielly, and older obviously.

If the cap had just gone up as it should have, and we could've added him without moving anyone of import, that would've been of course been too nice a thing for poor Leaf lifers to get.

But he's literally the missing piece, imo. If we can move out non-essentials and replace them with cheaper versions, and if Pietro takes a discount, we're going to be primed for some serious success next year.
 
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