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GDT #1 - AUG 2 8pm SN - The Covid Cup is Ours

Preston said:
I don't think naturalstatrick does. Moneypuck might as it's a bit more complex. But I don't think it takes that into account either.
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Oh yeah not included in the xgf numbers, but many of the predictive (and propietary) models try to incorporate it iirc.
 
WellPlayed said:
The only thing that was wrong with our game was the management selecting the rosters. Shayne Corson? Kris Draper? What the **** were they thinking.
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Rob Zamuner over Mark Messier in 98 is the gold standard
 
Marner and rielly were so bad last night. Marner looked like he just didn’t give a fuck and rielly looked like he lost 3 steps. Just embarrassing.
 
zeke said:
Oh yeah not included in the xgf numbers, but many of the predictive (and propietary) models try to incorporate it iirc.
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Yeah I've seen it in models too but not xgf. That shit can vary a lot player by player. For instance, I dont think Matthews would have lost the xgf battle last night if it accounted for his shooting skill.
 
mbow30 said:
Marner and rielly were so bad last night. Marner looked like he just didn’t give a **** and rielly looked like he lost 3 steps. Just embarrassing.
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Yeah Reilly looked realllly slow by his standards. I was not prepared for that.
 
Preston said:
Yeah I've seen it in models too but not xgf. That shit can vary a lot player by player. For instance, I dont think Matthews would have lost the xgf battle last night if it accounted for his shooting skill.
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At the same time, he should be getting more quality chances anyways.
 
WellPlayed said:
The only thing that was wrong with our game was the management selecting the rosters. Shayne Corson? Kris Draper? What the **** were they thinking.
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That 98 team with Zamuner is hilarious. also the same year Crawford decided not to use Gretzky in the shootout with Kariya and Sakic not available.
 
leaffan2005 said:
Question.

What happens if we get swept in this series and look similar to last night for all 3 games? Does anybody's opinion regarding shaking up the core of this team in some way change?
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No. I'll view it as this team's biggest disappointment thus far, and the second consecutive year where we've taken a step backwards instead of getting any closer to the ultimate goal of winning a championship. And I'll have plenty of criticism for our players, and for some of the decisions management's made.

But I simply don't see any realistic path to improving this team by trading any of Matthews, Marner, Nylander or Rielly. I mean, if the opportunity arose to somehow get an upgrade on any of those guys in a one-for-one deal, that'd be a different story.

But if you try to trade any of those guys, it's far more likely that the only offers you're going to get are a collection of lesser assets in return, or single assets that simply aren't as good as them. So I'd rather keep betting on them in the hope that with the right amount of experience under their belts and continued improvements of the supporting cast, that they'll eventually take that next step.

I'm also not willing to base huge decisions about the organization's future on the outcome of this weird-ass return-to-play in a pandemic.
 
LeafGm said:
No. I'll view it as this team's biggest disappointment thus far, and the second consecutive year where we've taken a step backwards instead of getting any closer to the ultimate goal of winning a championship. And I'll have plenty of criticism for our players, and for some of the decisions management's made.

But I simply don't see any realistic path to improving this team by trading any of Matthews, Marner, Nylander or Rielly. I mean, if the opportunity arose to somehow get an upgrade on any of those guys in a one-for-one deal, that'd be a different story.

But if you try to trade any of those guys, it's far more likely that the only offers you're going to get are a collection of lesser assets in return, or single assets that simply aren't as good as them. So I'd rather keep betting on them in the hope that with the right amount of experience under their belts and continued improvements of the supporting cast, that they'll eventually take that next step.

I'm also not willing to base huge decisions about the organization's future on the outcome of this weird-ass return-to-play in a pandemic.
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This is the key point for me. A ton of time off, a totally fucked up situation, literally zero competitive lead-in other than one game against the Habs, a cold team that needs to have its skill guys cooking a little, and a close game that turned on a couple of lucky plays. (By the way, in seeing the replay of their goal, the shot actually was on a rolling puck that fluttered in towards Freddy. Although we've all skewered him for that one, it doesn't seem to have been a straightforward shot, but rather some shitty knuckler that the hockey gods permitted so that we could suffer more than necessary).

Win or lose the series, even in the fucked up covid tournie, has no impact on how I see the team. I wouldn't even look to see what the market would give me for one of the kids. I'd just keep cutting fat (Barrie, Ceci) and keep adding skill (Sandin, Lilly) and see what next year brings. At which time Matthews will still only be 23, by the way.

The only thing that's burning me is running with the garbage vets instead of the kids. Like there is literally zero reason Ceci and Barrie should be in over Sandin. None. There is zero reason why a bum like Clifford is playing over Engvall. Dump the trash now. Don't wait for the offseason to let a few shitty UFAs go.
 
The beejers play a boring as fuck safe game. They’ll give you the zone but nothing off the rush and no space down low.
I don’t think the 2 deep 5 man cycle will work here because cbj collapses four men deep with one up high to stop royal road passes.

That does leave the weak side wide open. leafs are going tohave to figure out how to get thepuck to the weak side d and hope that opens up seams for tips or passes back through the slot.

leafs kept the puck strong side andwastes lots of zone time with bad angled shots from the half boards.
 
LeafGm said:
No. I'll view it as this team's biggest disappointment thus far, and the second consecutive year where we've taken a step backwards instead of getting any closer to the ultimate goal of winning a championship. And I'll have plenty of criticism for our players, and for some of the decisions management's made.

But I simply don't see any realistic path to improving this team by trading any of Matthews, Marner, Nylander or Rielly. I mean, if the opportunity arose to somehow get an upgrade on any of those guys in a one-for-one deal, that'd be a different story.

But if you try to trade any of those guys, it's far more likely that the only offers you're going to get are a collection of lesser assets in return, or single assets that simply aren't as good as them. So I'd rather keep betting on them in the hope that with the right amount of experience under their belts and continued improvements of the supporting cast, that they'll eventually take that next step.

I'm also not willing to base huge decisions about the organization's future on the outcome of this weird-ass return-to-play in a pandemic.
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You make your roster decisions after next season . not this BS format

4 months off and your playing desperate hockey from day 1 and maybe out in a week ......horseshit
 
Gotta K
GEEMAN said:
You make your roster decisions after next season . not this BS format

4 months off and your playing desperate hockey from day 1 and maybe out in a week ......horseshit
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Plus, have to give Keefe a full training camp to change things.
 
CH1 said:
Don't let Preston zeke you out. We never discussed a 0-2 deficit
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We never discussed 1-1 either. You zeked me. Theres a completely different set of odds for different series scorelines. All pulled from the exact same amount of data.
 
CH1 said:
That's all we've been saying....give them Leafs a chance to tie the series before making funeral arrangements.
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30% chance of winning is nowhere near funeral arrangements. I'm just saying they're underdogs now.
 
Iirc those stats about 5 game series would have taken place in a 21 team league where you were getting #1 seeds up against near bottom 5 teams every year. I think those stats would need an adjustment to apply to this scenario.
 
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