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Around the League 2019-2026 Edition

worm said:
if it was boston maybe that would be comforting
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It was for me last year. They played a cup contender fairly even. Yes, they didn't show up when it mattered most but they played a super elite team VERY well. It was encouraging. I've got nothing for this year though. Not very encouraging.
 
curious how xGF% rank matches with the cup champs

i remember for quite a while the cup winners were also corsi cup champs (top 5)
 
leafman101 said:
There are too many games in there that weren't good enough. Game 1 they weren't ready. It's never ideal to start a series with your worst game, but it is even more costly n a best of 5.

Game 3 should have been the killer after they dominated Game 2, but they just blew it and stopped playing after going up 3-0. It should have been over at that point, but they didn't have the killer instinct to finish it off.

And they never really regained their footing after that. Game 4 they were lucky to not be eliminated. And Game 5, other than the super line, they weren't very good. In elimination games you need to have your best games, and they didn't in either. Same thing happened last year in game 6/7. They had two chances to put it away and had 2 of their worst games of the series.
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Game 3 was definitely the game that separated them from the big boys. A team that blows a big lead like that in a critical game doesn’t deserve to move on. Just like how we stole their souls in Game 4 showed that Columbus also was a major pretender. So both didn’t deserve more than they got and Columbus quickly got sent home after beating us.
 
worm said:
curious how xGF% rank matches with the cup champs

i remember for quite a while the cup winners were also corsi cup champs (top 5)
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2019-20:
1. Vegas 56.07
2. Tampa 54.64
8. Dallas 52.27

2018-19 (after Jan 1 - Blues took off after coachign change)
1. St. Louis - 57.83
7. Boston - 53.55

2017-18
14. Vegas - 50.94
24. Washington - 47.36

2016-17
5. Pittsburgh 53.18
6. Sharks 52.46

2015-16
1. Pittsburgh - 55.77
4. Nashville - 53.62

In most years it matches up. The Caps won in probably their worst season ironically.
 
Yeah so the Leafs need to be a lot better than outside the top 10 for yet another season. For all this talk about xgf >>> Jesus, the Leafs sure are pretty mediocre with regards to that statistic.
 
leafman101 said:
2019-20:
1. Vegas 56.07
2. Tampa 54.64
8. Dallas 52.27

2018-19 (after Jan 1 - Blues took off after coachign change)
1. St. Louis - 57.83
7. Boston - 53.55

2017-18
14. Vegas - 50.94
24. Washington - 47.36

2016-17
5. Pittsburgh 53.18
6. Sharks 52.46

2015-16
1. Pittsburgh - 55.77
4. Nashville - 53.62

In most years it matches up. The Caps won in probably their worst season ironically.
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thanks for that


and go vegas
 
2014-15:
1. Tampa - 54.94
15. Chicago - 51.08

2013-14
2. LA - 56.24
7. Rangers - 52.24

2012-2013
5. Chicago - 54.17
6. Boston - 53.88

2011-12
6. Kings - 52.88
9. Devils - 51.99

2010-11
5. Bruins - 55.43
17. Canucks - 50.20

2009-10
1. Chicago - 5765
2. Philly - 52.99

2008-09:
5. Detroit - 53.64
14. Pittsburgh - 50.50

2007-08;
1. Detroit - 57.42
14. Pittsburgh - 50.29


So since they started tracking xGF, Pittsburgh, Washington and Chicago were the only teams to finish outside of the top 6 and win a cup. It was Chicago's 3rd cup though so they had already established what they could play like. The #1 team in xGF% won the cup 4 out of 12 times, and top 6 won it 9 out of 12 times, and 8 of those were to 5 teams.
 
And sustained success is the key.

Top 10 teams in xGF from 2008-2019:
1. Sharks
(Vegas)
2. Pens - 3 Cups
3. Bruins - 1 Cup
4. Blues - 1 Cup
5. Kings - 2 Cups
6. Blackhawks - 3 Cups
7. Lightning
8. Preds
9. Caps - 1 cup
10 Devils
11. Wings - 1 cup

Its actually crazy. All of the cup winners are in the top 10 in xGF over that 12 year period, and 10/12 Cup winners in the top 6. The Wings were at the end of their run too so they have a lot of bad years in there bringing them down. And the 4 teams that didn't win all made the Finals at least once.

Also poor Sharks.
 
leafman101 said:
And sustained success is the key. Top 10 teams in xGF from 2008-2019:

1. Sharks
(Vegas)
2. Pens - 3 Cups
3. Bruins - 1 Cup
4. Blues - 1 Cup
5. Kings - 2 Cups
6. Blackhawks - 3 Cups
7. Lightning
8. Preds
9. Caps - 1 cup
10 Devils
11. Wings - 1 cup

Its actually crazy. All of the cup winners are in the top 10 in xGF over that 12 year period. And the 4 teams that didn't win all made the Finals at least once.

Also poor Sharks.
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Why poor Sharks? Winning xgf is better than winning any lousy cups.
 
leafman101 said:
Also poor Sharks.
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Through all of this, Prestoluck still plays a key role. But you can sure as fuck improve your chances if you are a top 5-10 team for as many years as possible. Dubas recognizes this and said this exact thing in terms of extending the window being the most important thing of all. He's on the same page there. But they have to get to that level first; they're still on the outside looking in.
 
LeafGm said:
XGF Cup >> Stanley Cup

Stanley Cup wins is a noisy stat, after all.
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The funniest thing is the Leafs lose the xgf cup in a very hilarious way too. Year after year the FI nerds cling to xgf as if the Leafs are fucking worldbeaters.. This year it's "But MUH UNDER KEEFE" while ignoring the rest of the season, or the fact that they faded after the hot start with him. Give me a full season or at least more sustained super elite xgf% under Keefe and then MAYBE they can be xGF% contenders. Until then, they're a slightly above average hockey team under the laws of the Stanley Cup and the xGF% Cup.

I'm on board xGF% being a predictor of future success, but that's also a reason why I'm not as confident about future success for the Leafs compared to others around here. They're not great at expected goals.
 
Preston said:
The funniest thing is the Leafs lose the xgf cup in a very hilarious way too. Year after year the FI nerds cling to xgf as if the Leafs are fucking worldbeaters.. This year it's "But MUH UNDER KEEFE" while ignoring the rest of the season, or the fact that they faded after the hot start with him. Give me a full season or at least more sustained super elite xgf% under Keefe and then MAYBE they can be xGF% contenders. Until then, they're a slightly above average hockey team under the laws of the Stanley Cup and the xGF% Cup.
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Sustained. They need multiple seasons of elite xGF% for it to really matter. They haven't had one yet.

Keefe's run was promising though.
 
Yup. Just give me a far larger sample size. I still think that even under Keefe, their "lows" were far too fucking low. They can dominate any team in a huge way on a good night like most average teams, but there are games or stretches of games where they just get destroyed (also like most average teams). The new coach bump was promising, but until they prove they can sustain it and show some consistency, they will never be a top tier team. Consistency is what separates the big boys from the mediocre boys. Prove it to me baby.
 
leafman101 said:
There are too many games in there that weren't good enough. Game 1 they weren't ready. It's never ideal to start a series with your worst game, but it is even more costly n a best of 5.

Game 3 should have been the killer after they dominated Game 2, but they just blew it and stopped playing after going up 3-0. It should have been over at that point, but they didn't have the killer instinct to finish it off.

And they never really regained their footing after that. Game 4 they were lucky to not be eliminated. And Game 5, other than the super line, they weren't very good. In elimination games you need to have your best games, and they didn't in either. Same thing happened last year in game 6/7. They had two chances to put it away and had 2 of their worst games of the series.
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I posted it simply to point out Presto's stilly claim that they had a 52-53% chance of winning the series. I don't disagree with much of how you characterized it, aside from the Leafs being lucky in game 4.
 
Last 3 years:
1. Tampa: 54.07
2. Vegas: 53.96
3. Boston: 53.64
Carolina: 53.64
5. Minnesota: 53.13

Kinda seems like the Canes are the young, elite team ready to break out. They actually just need a goalie.
 
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