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Around the League 2019-2025 Edition

MindzEye said:
I agree with all of this. Montreal is a very very good possession team and that will help, but scoring goals is going to be an issue unless, like you mention, the PP is effective and keeping goals out is going to be an issue if Price continues to decline.

I see the Habs losing a lot of 1 goal games despite out corsi-ing the opposition and being a "tough out" on most nights but lacking the game breaking skill of every other good team in the division.
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That happened last year. 22 one goal losses. I believe they’re an improved team from last year. They will have to prove themselves but I think they will. I’m not a homer fan like Zeke. I’ve said when they’ve sucked and when I don’t expect them to do well. I’ll go on record saying I do expect them to fight for first. When that happens people will use terms like surprising but it won’t be to me.

Or they’ll be utter shit and I’ll have to find another thc strain for prognostication.
 
As for the D argument in this division...

Pick one:

TOR: Mo, Muzzin, Brodie
MTL: Weber, Petry, Edmunson/Chiarot
CAL: Gio, Hanifin, Anderrsson/Tanev
EDM: Barrie, Nurse, Larsson
VAN: Schmidt, Hughes, Edler
WPG: Pionk, Morrissey, DeMelo
OTT: Chabot, Zaitsev, Gudbranson

Even if you think that Gio and Weber are better than healthy Mo. The #3 slot behind Petry is gruesome (and he's a wash with Muzzin). In Calgary both Hanifin and whatever you're calling their #3 are nowhere near as good as Muzzin-Brodie.

Vancouver is the only other group worth being in the conversation.
 
Habsy said:
What is your definition of elite? .925? .930?
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Floating value...basically top 5 in the league, top 7 at most if #6-7 is really close in goaltending metrics to #5.

So without pulling out the better metrics and just using SV% for the moment, the 5th in SV% was .923 last year. With the top guy at .930, I'd call .923 to be fringe elite, close enough to be in the conversation of being elite.
 
Habsy said:
Ok so what metric would you like to use? I want to track this just to see.
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eh, pick your poison. Whichever adjusted SV% metric that takes shot quality into account on some level. I don't even know which of the advanced stats sites still exist publicly at the moment.
 
I think Price will be top five with rest.

My only concern is the condensed training camp and no exhibition games. Injuries will likely be up and then there’s the Covid factor too.
 
Carey Price’s enduring reputation really is incredible to me. We’re now five years removed from him being a stud in back-to-back years in 2013/14 & 2014/15.

Since then:

2015/16: Missed all but 12 games to injury
2016/17: Above-average
2017/18: Godawful
2018/19: Above-average
2019/20: Godawful

...and yet there’s no shortage of fans and media who have the assumption that Price will be elite baked into their analysis of the Habs.

I mean, it’s not impossible that it’ll happen. But it’s about as likely as Joe Thornton turning back the clock by five years and scoring at a first-line clip for us this season.
 
The narrative is that he's a super elite goalie when rested and a replacement level goalie when he's not.

Something tells me that won't hold up. I get the value in rest and it maybe does play a role for price, but I think it's getting beyond the point of overblown.
 
With that said in a shortened season, or even in a full season, anything is possible when it comes to goalies. There's a wide variance with them season over season. Freddy busting out a .940 season wouldn't shock me any more than if he busted out an .890 season.
 
Preston said:
The narrative is that he's a super elite goalie when rested and a replacement level goalie when he's not.

Something tells me that won't hold up. I get the value in rest and it maybe does play a role for price, but I think it's getting beyond the point of overblown.
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The exact same narrative that Freddie’s defenders use, funny enough.

And as much as I fucking hate Freddie’s guts, he’s been an above average NHL starter (in the regular season) more consistently than Price over the last five years.
 
MindzEye said:
As for the D argument in this division...

Pick one:

TOR: Mo, Muzzin, Brodie
MTL: Weber, Petry, Edmunson/Chiarot
CAL: Gio, Hanifin, Anderrsson/Tanev
EDM: Barrie, Nurse, Larsson
VAN: Schmidt, Hughes, Edler
WPG: Pionk, Morrissey, DeMelo
OTT: Chabot, Zaitsev, Gudbranson

Even if you think that Gio and Weber are better than healthy Mo. The #3 slot behind Petry is gruesome (and he's a wash with Muzzin). In Calgary both Hanifin and whatever you're calling their #3 are nowhere near as good as Muzzin-Brodie.

Vancouver is the only other group worth being in the conversation.
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was gonna say of those groups, I have VAN and TOR as the top tier, followed by MTL/CAL, then EDM, then WPG and OTT. WPG is maybe closer to EDM than OTT.
 
MindzEye said:
As for the D argument in this division...

Pick one:

TOR: Mo, Muzzin, Brodie
MTL: Weber, Petry, Edmunson/Chiarot
CAL: Gio, Hanifin, Anderrsson/Tanev
EDM: Barrie, Nurse, Larsson
VAN: Schmidt, Hughes, Edler
WPG: Pionk, Morrissey, DeMelo
OTT: Chabot, Zaitsev, Gudbranson

Even if you think that Gio and Weber are better than healthy Mo. The #3 slot behind Petry is gruesome (and he's a wash with Muzzin). In Calgary both Hanifin and whatever you're calling their #3 are nowhere near as good as Muzzin-Brodie.

Vancouver is the only other group worth being in the conversation.
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Agreed on your conclusion.

Especially since one Zach Bogosian compares amusingly well to guys like Edmundson, Tanev, Larsson, Myers
 
Habsy said:
I think Price will be top five with rest.

My only concern is the condensed training camp and no exhibition games. Injuries will likely be up and then there’s the Covid factor too.
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we disagree on this. I think if he cracks top-10 yall should be thrilled. but more realistically I think he finishes 10-20.
 
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