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OT: Coronavirus Resources - and other things to not worry about

Ill probably just go this afternoon for the flu shot. Last year my wife and i had appointments booked the same week and due to supply it ended up taking her 3 extra weeks to get it.
 
We've got a new slightly more transmissible beast starting to take over. Seems close to confirmed.. Perhaps a 10% advantage on Delta, which is nowhere near as extreme as Delta's advantage over Alpha and Alpha over the original covid. Not likely to do a better job of escaping immunity to a major extent.

Thread:




Conclusions:






The last tweet is funny.
 
My only concern was how quickly this happened. Delta didn't hit the UK until the summer, to have a relatively significant mutation of Delta this quickly isn't good.

I think we're going to need delta specific vaccines by spring or we're in a bit of trouble again. If this bitch improved 10% somewhat rapidly, that's a problem.
 
Yeah there's still a lot of space for this thing to continue to evolve it seems. Turbofucked is a good description of where we're at.

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So we'll have results by Q4 and then they're gonna need to ramp up supply and whatnot if the boosters prove to be superior. I still question whether they can be much better than what we've got. Sterilizing immunity is impossible against coronaviruses and as we've seen anyone who is highly exposed to the virus will be infected, vaccinated or not. A third dose takes effectiveness back up to over 90%. Can we really expect that much more outside of maybe a lower dose being satisfactory to generate the same immune response?

Next gen vaccines should focus more on immune memory/t-cells and whatnot and less on preventing infection. Focus should be to train our bodies to fight this thing as good as possible since we're going to live with it and catch it multiple times. I believe there is work being done on this but I'm not sure how far along they are.
 
Preston said:
Exposed, not infected.
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What does that look like...I mean, how many bodies does that pile up? Exposure has to have a good chance to infect, no? How is this tracked? Do they have a good handle on exposure numbers? How is he leaning on a number like 6 months for "everyone" to be exposed?

It's a fascinating take and would like to read more.
 
SundinsTooth said:
What does that look like...I mean, how many bodies does that pile up? Exposure has to have a good chance to infect, no? How is this tracked? Do they have a good handle on exposure numbers?
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It's a model based on the reproductive number of the virus. They do it for every virus out there. Way above my paygrade. So if you're exposed briefly, but are wearing a mask and if you are fairly freshly vaccinated your odds are probably decent of not being infected. If your child comes home from school and is at peak infectiousness and mask-free, you'll probably catch it. Two entirely different situations. Both = exposure. One of two = likely infection.

As for bodies, idk. As always, the young won't die, especially if vaccinated. Some of the old will die. But if vaccinated your odds improve a lot.
 


Usually approved around a month after it's submitted + we need to get the pediatric doses too so who knows what the timeline will be on this one. May head to the US this winter if there's a long wait for my soon-to-be 2 year old (2+'s possibly approved by late Q4 or early Q1 2022).

I do know Anita mentioned that they'll be working with Pfizer to expedite doses and their current contract with them anticipated this need. So we shall see. Good news is we won't need much compared to most countries and we really don't have many kids in the country to begin with.
 
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Preston said:
Had the flu in Japan for about a week in a half a couple of years ago. And I was there for two weeks. It was a 13 hour flight and I was selfish. I didn't stop being out and about. Wonder how many people I infected. Crazy times. In fairness I felt guilty about it the entire time so maybe that counts for something?
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meh

it is just the covid
 
Preston said:


Usually approved around a month after it's submitted + we need to get the pediatric doses too so who knows what the timeline will be on this one. May head to the US this winter if there's a long wait for my soon-to-be 2 year old (2+'s possibly approved by late Q4 or early Q1 2022).

I do know Anita mentioned that they'll be working with Pfizer to expedite doses and their current contract with them anticipated this need. So we shall see. Good news is we won't need much compared to most countries and we really don't have many kids in the country to begin with.
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just over 2 weeks from submission to approval on 12-15 year olds

so id expect a month until shots in arms
 
Cool data out of Puerto Rico. Breakthrough infection severity in unvaxxed vs Pfizer vs derna. Wonderful vaccines.

 
paging dr presto

i remember some convo earlier about rapid testing (within 72 hours) vs vaccines - which is more effective for controlling the spread of the covid...at say a hockey game?

(obviously both would be best)
 
worm said:
paging dr presto

i remember some convo earlier about rapid testing (within 72 hours) vs vaccines - which is more effective for controlling the spread of the covid...at say a hockey game?

(obviously both would be best)
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Both like you said, but my unqualified opinion is rapid testing, ideally on the day of the game. Especially if it has been a long time since being vaxxed for folks. And if transmission is high in a city then rapid testing definitely >>>

For now out of 20,000 vaxxed folks who attend a hockey game maybe only 6-10 are positive in Toronto. Transmission is low here right now.
 
I need Kristian Andersen back on Twitter. I need moar than one quote of his wisdom pls. He was my go-to before the lab leak brigade threatened him repeatedly. :(



Here's a Presto thought: So there's a pattern it seems for this virus. The more transmissible, the earlier symptoms appear (shorter incubation period), and the more deadly it is. With Delta it seems symptoms are common around 3 days after infection. If we ever get to a point where we get a more transmissible variant where you get symptoms a day or less AFTER infection I suspect that variant has no chance to thrive because people will presumably isolate immediately and the virus will have a hard time spreading. Basically like the original SARS (which coincidentally enough, was quite a bit more deadly). With public health measures we got rid of it because of the short incubation period.

So in that sense, there is probably a peak coming fairly soon. Not because of the virus itself, but because it'll be easier to quarantine/isolate if symptom onset is nearly immediate, and the variant will not be as efficient at spreading. Pre-symptomatic spread is covid's bread and butter.
 
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Shit news on the antiviral front. Merck product looks good, Pfizer still on the way, but Atea was the 3rd horse that was at later stage than the others.

www.statnews.com

Atea’s antiviral pill fails to clear Covid-19, forcing a re-think

Atea Pharmaceuticals said Tuesday that its antiviral pill for Covid-19 failed to combat the virus in a mid-stage trial, leading the company to delay its pivotal study by a year.
www.statnews.com www.statnews.com

No go.



Thank god I sold their stock after 70% gains

Hopefully this is incorrect. Would be nice if the antivirals worked well for everyone.
AT-527 works similarly to Merck’s drug, molnupiravir, and was widely expected to succeed in clinical development. The problem might have been trial design. While Merck deliberately excluded patients who had been vaccinated for Covid-19, Atea did not, which might have skewed the results, according to the company. Merck also recruited only patients who had at least one risk factor for severe Covid-19, such as obesity or heart disease, while Atea required only a positive test and mild symptoms.
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Wouldn't it be cool if they could force the virus to mutate into a much less deadly variant. Hopefully technology takes us there some day...
 
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