Preston
MBow30 alt account
Ahhh silly gm. You clearly haven't been to the school of zeke. If the smaller sample works in your favor, use that and ask questions later.
Around the League 2019-2024 Edition
- Thread starter LeafGm
- Start date
zeke
Well-known member
oh i'm expecting Freddy to come up with a mystery injury soon enough.
LeafOfFaith
Well-known member
Something just feels wrong about paying $3.8m to a backup.
Backup goalie should honestly always be something you draft and develop, and ride for as long as you can. It can't be THIS hard to find good cheap goalies.
zeke
Well-known member
With Carolina:
Mrazek: .911
Reimer: .910
With Mrazek getting the tougher matchups and bigger workload overall.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
Mraz's last 3 years of work
2020/21
April: .932
2019/20
Oct: .917
Nov: .889
Dec: .907
Jan: .910
Feb: .904
2018/19
Oct: .887
Dec: .917
Jan: .880
Feb: .932
Mar: .935
Head to head:
<.895
Fred: 4
Mraz: 3
.896-.905
Fred: 3
Mraz: 1
.906-.915
Fred:0
Mraz: 2
.916-.925
Fred: 1
Mraz:2
>.925
Fred: 2
Mraz 3
Over their last few seasons, Mraz has been the better option though obviously limited by durability. Freddy can give you 60 shit games if you need him to, absolutely.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
Why is playing more bad games a good thing?
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
I don't love the deal either, but in fairness, he's more of a decent 1B than a true backup.
Getting 30-35 games of league average goaltending is worth some money. We shouldn't be running Jack any heavier than 50-53 starts imo. The idea isn't to win the President's trophy, it's to have everyone ready to make a deep run. Jack might be the guy to get the job done, but he's never been a heavy minute guy (that's been a regular knock on him, his durability), so there's no need to run him ragged in the regular season.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
And some starters react poorly to "sharing" the net. Wasn't "rested" Price supposed to be a thing?
There's no hard and fast rule here. Being able to play 60 bad games doesn't mean you would play 40 good games with more rest. The other thing is that there's more than just games played goes into the role. Pete was almost always the "starter" in Carolina, he just broke a lot so missed games. He wasn't healthy sitting on the bench while other goalies played. He played a starters workload, broke, got healthy, went back to playing a starters workload...broke, rinse & repeat.
zeke
Well-known member
The basics of my call are that Carolina hurts goalies' save percentages by being very good at preventing shots but medicore at preventing expected goals. Toronto does the reverse.
Last 3yrs:
CAR: #3 sa/60, #19 xga/60
TOR: #13 sa/60, #10 xga/60
This year:
CAR: #1 sa/60, #19 xga/60
TOR: #11 sa/60, #4 xga/60
Even if Freddy is better overall than he was with Toronto the last couple of years, he'll still be hard pressed to put up a good save percentage i think.
Meanwhile, i don't think we should be surprised to see Mrazek's numbers boosted by leaving CAR, like Reimer's have been. This is actually why Dubas liked Mrazek - because the underlying metrics said exactly this, his superficial save percentage looked worse than it should have due to the team's style in front of him.
Last 3yrs:
CAR: #3 sa/60, #19 xga/60
TOR: #13 sa/60, #10 xga/60
This year:
CAR: #1 sa/60, #19 xga/60
TOR: #11 sa/60, #4 xga/60
Even if Freddy is better overall than he was with Toronto the last couple of years, he'll still be hard pressed to put up a good save percentage i think.
Meanwhile, i don't think we should be surprised to see Mrazek's numbers boosted by leaving CAR, like Reimer's have been. This is actually why Dubas liked Mrazek - because the underlying metrics said exactly this, his superficial save percentage looked worse than it should have due to the team's style in front of him.
Neurospasm
Well-known member
I’m still holding onto my belief that Freddy and Mrazek end up in similar territory. To pay a little less and not deal with the awful body language Freddy shows when the going gets tough was worth cutting him loose.
Habsy
Not playing around anymore.
So your basic argument is that Freddy was too much of a head case to be either starter or backup in TO?
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
My basic argument is that for a few years now he's been a bad goalie. Whether that's in his head or his work habits I dunno. I just analyze the results to try to predict future performance. His age coupled with his recent results suggests that he's done, a hot streak here or there notwithstanding.
LeafOfFaith
Well-known member
Yeah, I agree with all that, and even though the market says different, it FEELS like you should get a much better goalie than Mrazek for $4M.
Or that if you've agreed to pay that, that you should get the healthy and solid version of Mrazek, not the broken down garbage version.
And then when you have Woll making peanuts and stringing off wins in every try, it feels like we're maybe overinsured, and that those dollars should be allocated towards another forward.
Habsy
Not playing around anymore.
Ok but doesn't that then point to less workload? Was that ever truly achieved in TO?
LeafOfFaith
Well-known member
I still think Bernier derailed Reimer's career from what it could have been.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
There's no such thing as a healthy version of Mrazek. He plays, generally fairly well and then breaks. Then comes back, generally plays well and then breaks. Hopefully a diminished work load as Jack's 1B will help smooth those rough edges out a bit.
A healthy version of Mrazek is worth more than 3.8 on the market. He'd be a 4.5-5 million dollar goalie.
And no, we're not remotely overinsured. I know Woll is a feel good story right now, but there's no such thing as ".890 AHL goalie turns into quality NHL goalie overnight because reasons". We've seen tons and tons of goalies over the years have very early career success before showing their true level. Woll is a bad goalie at the AHL level, he's not going to magically turn into a good one at the NHL level. I'm thrilled that we've gotten a few good games out of him, but the idea of him being our backup should terrify all of us. He would probably be an .870-.880 goalie at the NHL level, maybe worse.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
There's no rule that says "fewer games = better games". I mean, it's not like he's net shared his way to a .928 this season.
He's always been a moody bitch whenever any talk of sharing the net came up with Jack previously.
Fwiw, Freddy's performance in lower workloads in Anaheim was near identical to his first few seasons with the Leafs.
LeafOfFaith
Well-known member
We're fucked if Jack gets injured either way.
Yeah, you ideally ride Mrazek rather than Woll then, but we're not winning anything with Mrazek and Woll as the tandem, so I question the value of that extra $3M.
Yeah, you ideally ride Mrazek rather than Woll then, but we're not winning anything with Mrazek and Woll as the tandem, so I question the value of that extra $3M.
LeafGm
Well-known member
No, I have actually!
I was originally going to do a five-year sample of Mrazek's save percentage, but then I noticed that five years ago was his last good season with the Red Wings, when he put up a .921 in 54 games, so I cut that fuckin' garbage right out and went with a four-year sample instead.