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GDT #46 - 2024/1/16 - Sweep Keefe

zeke

Well-known member
The old decrepit leafs host the young uberskilled Devils and the Jack Adams favorite Sheldon Keefe.

The young juggernaut Devils have won 2 of their last 8 games, and one of those wins was in OT. They've lost both games to the old decrepit leafs this year, albeit once in OT, so another loss tonight would complete the sweep for the leafs against their soon to be Jack Adams winning ex-coach. The super young elite Devils also have a worse record than the old decrepit leafs this year.

Old decrepit Leafs get probably their most important Dman in McCabe back, but because this season has been a clusterfuck healthwise they immediately lose their old decrepit #2C to what sounds like might be the longest injury absence of his career. We'll see if Minten can do better in his second shot than he did in his first shot, though he won't be playing tonight. Personally i think the return of McCabe is more important than the loss of Tavares, so I don't see this injury as much of an excuse.

Lines:

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p.s. here's how the Old Decrepit Hole-ridden Leafs' depth chart matches up against the Young Superskilled SuperDeep Devils' this year so far:


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just noticed that Dom finally got off his ass and gave us some real updated Net Ratings yesterday, unlike the hack job updates i was trying to calculate.

Here's how tonight's matchup looks using the new Forecast Net Ratings - which include both how the players have done so far this year and then projects how they'll do in the remaining games and totals them up. A guy like Matthews gets doubly knocked here for not only playing just ok, but also not having enough games left to catch up in the forecast either. Note the goalie numbers aren't updated they're the same ones from the start of the year.


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significant changes from my hackjob back of envelope numbers above:

- Matthews drops from +27 to +20, this is as much about him missing time as it is performance though.
- Tavares, Knies, Domi, Kampf, Lorentz come out looking marginally but solidly better
- McCabe, Tanev, OEL all look solidly better than my numbers had them


I'm not surprised that the 4th liner numbers look better than i calculated - they've played pretty well but i was starting them off from some pretty dire preseason projected numbers.

The dcorps is a Rielly bounceback away from being pretty good. Though they'll need Myers to be solid which is far from a sure thing.
 
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Matthews whiffing on two pucks with acres of space in the offensive zone really fcuking hurts.
 
hey we're actually kinda playing well against a well coached team!

but we should probably stop whiffing when we're wide open in front.
 
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