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Goaltending

HeyKurtz

HeyKurtz

Well-known member
I'm going to go out on a limb here and make a predicition: the Canes will sign Freddie Andersen to a two-year extension at an AAV of between $3 and $4 million in the offseason to be Pyotr Kochetkov's backup . This will happen because (a) the free agent goalie pool, as demonstrated from the list from The Athletic pictured below, is very weak and (b) Freddie and Koochie's performances have been in the top half of the league this season.

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On the second point, if you look at Goals Saved Above Expected Per 60, my preferred metric for objectively evaluating goalies, the Canes' netminders look more than solid. In fact, of the 71 goalies who have played at least ten games this season, Andersen is ranked at #7 and Kochetkov is ranked at #14.

I've made my call. Unless Tulsky & Company come up with some magic trade, I think this is the way they'll go. What do you predict?
 
Koochie has really locked in lately. Still playing aggressively but not making as many boneheaded ‘aggressive’ plays. If this turns out to be his norm, I can live with that for sure. Anderson as a backup is fine also. We could go alot worse
 
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Fayettenamcanesfan said:
Koochie has really locked in lately. Still starting aggressively but not making as many boneheaded ‘aggressive’ plays. If this turns out to be his norm, I can live with that for sure. Anderson as a backup is fine also. We could go alot worse
Click to expand...
He became the 6th fastest active goalie to 10 career shutouts, doing it in his 109th career game. He also became the first Canes goalie to start 40 games in consecutive seasons since Cam Ward in 2016-17.
 
I saw that same list, too, and nothing on it made me think we’d get better that what we have now. There will have to be a very serviceable 3rd for us to succeed. Both Anderson and Kochetkov can get banged up and trying to rely on Spencer Martin is a problem.
 
Personally, I think they'll look around the trade market after July 1 because some team some where is going to overspend on a veteran forward or two and will be looking to save on the budget in the trade market. If you're just going to plug Freddie is as a backup you would do just as well with some of those other guys.

Either way, if you get to market and find that Freddie is the best option, you can always try to make a deal. I really doubt he's going to get a chance to start with a decent team.
 
If the Canes have Kochetkov and Freddie, they will end up in an almost even platoon if they are both healthy. So while you might call Freddie the backup, he is going to be a 40 game backup if he doesn't get hurt.

Unless the Canes win the Cup this year, there will be plenty of folks who will throw a fit if the Canes roll out Freddie and Kochetkov again. Sure I would prefer a goalie who never gets injured and will come up big for us in the playoffs. And that goalie is???......not likely available as a UFA or via a trade.

It wouldn't shock me if Freddie is re-signed. How the playoffs go this year might factor into that.... Honestly it really doesn't matter who your 2 goalies are, you really need a playable #3 now-a-days. But that becomes critically important if Freddie one of your goalies. Spencer Martin sure looked ok in the #3 role in 23-24....but he was a complete train wreck this season (so we need another guy).
 
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I saw that Athletic piece too on the goalies and it sure looked like slim pickings and slim was already locked up! Freddy and his agent may see he’s at the top of the UFA goalie pile this summer and squeeze someone for an extra million or two or an extra year too much because he can. The two Russians in Georgiev and Samsonov are as inconsistent as they come but you would get a Russian duo paired with Koochie…Georgiev either stands on his head one minute or can’t stop a beach ball the next though. Gibson still seems far too expensive to trade for. As much as I like Freddy as the platoon guy when he’s playing he simply is such a health risk anymore I’m not sure that’s wise three years running…
 
I mean, you can't just dismiss the entre pool of goalies that might be available just because "we know what this one can do." Look at Anthony Stolarz or Adin Hill to see examples of what I'm talking about. Guys emerge from the mists all the time, older guys find their games all the time and guys lose their games too. It's the ultimate crapshoot but running back the same two guys and then sitting around wondering why we're playing the 4th goalie in December ... again ... just shouldn't be an option.

Presuming Carolina doesn't pull a Cup shaped rabbit out of their hat this year, I just don't see how you can in good conscience bring back the same two guys that have been so erratic for the last 3-4 years and call it good enough. Freddie is the obvious candidate to swap because he's out of contract this summer and made of wet tissue paper and twine. But I could see bringing him back and swapping Kooch for another wildcard guy while you re-sign Freddie to be your more known quantity. But SOMETHING has to change, barring a Cup result, of course. And I'd support swapping out the guy who ends up backing up in that scenario as well.
 
Is 17th best combined in the league erratic though? Is it good enough? I’m asking not arguing.

More importantly are there available pieces to swap in/out that would get them where they need to be.

Personally I suspect the goalie injury cataclysm was the origin of the team coming off their game in December and they didn’t get that sorted out until recently although by that time the goalie situation was behind us. So I think they need to do “something” even if Ned has a stellar finish and great playoffs. We can go into next season with Ned as 1 but not Freddie as number 1. Assuming Ned earns it from here on out by playing at a very high level.
 
You can convince yourself that 17th overall is good enough, so long as you squint and ignore that the defensive system is among the most consistent in the league. Oh, and you also have to ignore the details ... multiple injuries, Kooch's adventures in avant garde comedy, the annual trip to the AHL discard pile for depth, etc.

And there are always available pieces. If you're looking for a magic bullet/guaranteed solution, then I'm not your guy. I'm just willing to stake out the completely bland and uncontroversial opinion that the Andersen/Kochetkov tandem is unlikely to yield results much different than the ones we've already seen. My solution to that? Try something different. Next year.
 
Depending on Freddie, a flyer on a UFA like Lyon would likely be cheap, and he's a backup guy. He and Kochetkov platooned well in the AHL together (yes I realize that doesn't mean NHL success). Otherwise, you work a trade. This is an area that needs stability, and by stability, I mean someone who doesn't miss 1/2 a season.
 
It's such a risk year to year to lock these guys up long term...see Jack Campbell, Tristan Jarry, Ville Husso..etc, etc. Even guys like Logan Thompson and Charlie Lindgren could fall off a cliff next year despite where they have took the Caps this year! I like the youth aspect and somewhat positive steps Koochie has taken when he stays away from his brain fart moments to keep him here long term, go take a flyer on another guy to pair with him and do a 60-40 split next year and oh, go find a third guy like Broissoit or something similar to have that insurance plan in the AHL too.
 
I don't trust Kochetkov and probably never will, but his highest level is higher than Andersen's right now. Given that I don't think this team has a chance in hell of actually winning a Cup unless one of their goalies goes into some sort of out of body state of zen, I'd love to see them ride Kochetkov for the playoffs and answer a bunch of questions at once. If he bombs out then you know where you stand going forward and we can knock off the "potential" game with him. He's 25 and you've seen what he's got. It's no longer an issue of development, it's whether or not he's ever going to get to where you trust him to show up.

THEN, you make an informed call about next steps. Trying to solve that problem know is pretty pointless.
 
One more thing on the goaltending...considering the Canes do not appear to have one single, young prospect in the system that has much of a high ceiling to ever develop into an NHL quality netminder, maybe go out and scour other teams prospect pipeline and trade for a guy that might be better long term than what you have now! Some teams have 2-3 of those types and they certainly do not need them all...
 
I definitely feel like they need to shore up the development pipeline in net. Basically they've got one guy who maybe looks like he might could develop into a pro goalie ... if you squint ... from a long distance. That's not good enough and every other way of getting a goalie to the NHL is much more expensive than bringing them through your farm.
 
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