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OT: The Toronto Blue Jays

It's June 7th.

The difference between a 140 wRC+ season and a 165 is 3 weeks in August where you can't miss anything you swing at.
 
I was wrong about Springer this year. Jays need to ride his dead cat bounce year, and get value in the off-season.
 
Might not be a dead cat bounce. Some guys are able to figure out how to start their swing earlier when they've aged a bit and are able to ride it for a few years. I was pretty vocal about Springer looking cooked, and he did, but if he's adjusted to not being young anymore, this probably sticks around for a while.
 
MindzEye said:
Might not be a dead cat bounce. Some guys are able to figure out how to start their swing earlier when they've aged a bit and are able to ride it for a few years. I was pretty vocal about Springer looking cooked, and he did, but if he's adjusted to not being young anymore, this probably sticks around for a while.
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Yeah, even if he's bad in the OF and on the bases now i think he can remain a valuable corner OF/DH for another 2-3 years

Also, nails inning by Braydon Fisher in high leverage today. I would be quietly shopping the shit out of Chadford Green


Tyler Heinekin 3/4 with a bomb today.
 
the smooth, pretty charts for aggregate aging curves end up being misleading.

aging curves for individuals are rarely smooth, absent a serious specific injury.

much more typical for a player to bounce up and down around that aging curve.
 
zeke said:
the smooth, pretty charts for aggregate aging curves end up being misleading.

aging curves for individuals are rarely smooth, absent a serious specific injury.

much more typical for a player to bounce up and down around that aging curve.
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Bounce within reason...yeah, performance is variable at the best of times But decline is eventual, and it's more common for significant decline over the course of multiple season to be a sign of the end more than anything else.
 
yeah but a perfectly smooth decline is rare.

and the funny thing is Springer's bad year last year had at least as much to do with an unlucky huge babip dip as anything else.

and Springer wasn't even terrible at the plate last year, just league average.
 
zeke said:
yeah but a perfectly smooth decline is rare.

and the funny thing is Springer's bad year last year had at least as much to do with an unlucky huge babip dip as anything else.

and Springer wasn't even terrible at the plate last year, just league average.
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Eh, he had declined to league average over 1200 AB's spanning two seasons after a smooth decline from 30-32 after his 29 yr old peak.

You don't see many guys shed ~35% of their offensive production over 1200+ AB and then bounce back like this very often. It happens, and when it does it's usually guys who were all star level sticks that do it, but it's still the pretty rare.
 
In Springer's case, we might actually be seeing a case where a guy was near-elite for so long that when his bat speed started slowing he thought it was just regular slumping that would be fixed by getting his swing back to normal, instead of trying to actually change and adjust his swing to his different skillset.

because he's absolutely overhauled his swing, putting up easily the highest average exit velo (though not max exit velo), Barrel%, and HardHit% of his career, and near his highest launch angle too.

Probably something that pitchers will eventually find some solutions too but probably not completely.
 
zeke said:
like springer?
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Yes, like Springer.

So it's rare, but when it does happen, it's guys who were really good who do it. I said as much in the pre season when talking about this. 1200+ AB of ~100 wRC+ didn't bode well for a bounce back, but the higher the peak, the better the chance for a meaningful bounce back.
 
dude it's not rare. Goldschmidt is having like his 3rd "bounceback" after a "steady decline:" of his 30s already this year at 37.

the top two hitters in baseball this year are 33 and 35.

you also said Chapman was on a steady decline and unlikely to bounce back 2 years ago.

you've got to recalibrate your ideas of aging.
 
zeke said:
you also said Chapman was on a steady decline and unlikely to bounce back 2 years ago.
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Yeah, that wasn't me. I was the one upset that we didn't re sign him.

zeke said:
you've got to recalibrate your ideas of aging.
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There are 8 hitters in baseball older than 33 with a wRC+ of 115 or higher out of 77 total. Only 15 higher than 100 out of 114.

Maybe we have different definitions of what constitutes something rare happening? Pointing to one other example happening concurrently doesn't make it not rare. This is pure survivorship bias mate. What you're not seeing is the guys not doing it, because they just declined and went away.
 
Springer is getting about half his starts at DH now, which is a very good thing both in terms of sustaining his offence and keeping him healthy. It’s also good because his defensive metrics are all really bad.

Also, I believe Springer had a 145 wrc+ in the month of July last year, and a really good couple of months the year before. His year end numbers were still poor. I’d wait a bit before calling the comeback.

But as I’ve said before, if they want to get any value out of Springer, he should be the DH and 4th OF, which looks pretty much like what they’re doing now.
 
Just looking at a couple bats i would have massive interest in adding to the roster.

Taylor Ward

This is the one if it's an everyday guy, legit oomph, and good defensively.

Cedric Mullens

A lefty, which is less ideal, but very good year

Ryan Mountcastle

Bad this year, but historically can mash

Rob Refsnyder and Randal Grichuk

The same guy, but IF and OF options, ex Jays that mash LHP

Tyler Oneill
 
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