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The Official 2026 Off-Season Thread: Revenge of the Nerds

Chayka doesn't have some super secret data that bob was actually good last year btw. He's just betting on a hall of famer bouncing back. It's a risk that may work out. But it's probably more likely that it doesn't, based on his downward trend, unplayable last season in a large sample, and general history of goalies his age.

But yeah, it's possible he reverts back to average, and that would be a huge win and crisis averted. But people are upset that the risk is needlessly large, I don't think anyone's under any impression that he'll suck for sure. They just feel it's a poor bet to make.

How do you explain this (not AI) photo? He’s been working on the file since Arizona

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Chayka doesn't have some super secret data that bob was actually good last year btw. He's just betting on a hall of famer bouncing back. It's a risk that may work out. But it's probably more likely that it doesn't, based on his downward trend, unplayable last season in a large sample, and general history of goalies his age.

But yeah, it's possible he reverts back to average, and that would be a huge win and crisis averted. But people are upset that the risk is needlessly large, I don't think anyone's under any impression that he'll suck for sure. They just feel it's a poor bet to make.
Plus I wanted to see what Hildeby could do with 30-40 games. Even if he was worse than Bob, by how much? Worth the $6m spread that could’ve gone to say Marchment?
 
is there such a thing as rebound control stats for defenses as a whole and players? do they track shit like that?
can you correlate bad rebound goalies with bad defense control of said rebounds?
zeke must have some fucking numbers on this...
 
The other part of going out to get a 38 year old #1 goalie, you have to expect that he'll drop off the next few years. You're sort of throwing your eggs in the basket that you think the team is going to be a legit cup contender this season. Maybe it makes sense, try to make the push on Matthews' current deal, before Rielly drops off more, and so. But it's banking a lot on a very fast turnaround.
 
The other part of going out to get a 38 year old #1 goalie, you have to expect that he'll drop off the next few years. You're sort of throwing your eggs in the basket that you think the team is going to be a legit cup contender this season. Maybe it makes sense, try to make the push on Matthews' current deal, before Rielly drops off more, and so. But it's banking a lot on a very fast turnaround.

I still don't think Bob's a bet I would've made regardless but there's almost no reason not to try to go for it this year and next since we don't have our own firsts the next two years and you absolutely want Matthews to stay or else you're back to searching for the elusive #1C anyway.
 
It should really come as no surprise that they're trying the Bob route given the shitty and/or unreliable goaltending this team has had for over two decades. Yes it's a gamble and could easily go down as a terrible signing. But rolling out Stolarz/Hildeby would have been a bad idea.
 
It should really come as no surprise that they're trying the Bob route given the shitty and/or unreliable goaltending this team has had for over two decades. Yes it's a gamble and could easily go down as a terrible signing. But rolling out Stolarz/Hildeby would have been a bad idea.
Only because of the Stolarz part.

You should always have a cheap, young, durable backup, ideally with upside.

If he was getting Bob, he should’ve traded Stolarz, not Hildeby.
 
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