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OT: The Toronto Blue Jays

AAA hitters, minimum 120pa:


1. 1B S.Keys (23): 226pa, 14.2b%, 20.4k%, .333bip, .303avg, .319iso, 170wrc+
2. 1B J.Gonzalez (24): 239pa, 13.8b%, 20.5k%, .338bip, .320avg, .355iso, 169wrc+
3. C D.Cavanaugh (24): 137pa, 13.1b%, 24.8k%, .425bip, .330avg, .241iso, 165wrc+
4. DH M.Gasper (30): 242pa, 17.4b%, 16.1k%, .377bip, .337avg, .230iso, 164wrc+
5. 3B P.Wisdom (34): 299pa, 11.4b%, 25.4k%, .299bip, .299avg, .425iso, 162wrc+
6. 1B N.Kavedas (27): 222pa, 20.3b%, 29.3k%, .440bip, .309avg, .280iso, 156wrc+
7. OF C.Morel (27): 139pa, 9.4b%, 23.7k%, .325bip, .309avg, .350iso, 155wrc+
8. OF C.Ingle (24): 400pa, 19.3b%, 23.0k%, .365bip, .300avg, .237iso, 155wrc+
9. 1B B.Eldridge (21): 137pa, 14.6b%, 29.9k%, .485bip, .333avg, .184iso, 155wrc+
10. OF P.Clohisy (24): 156pa, 12.8b%, 21.8k%, .459bip, .358avg, .149iso, 154wrc+


Keys arguably the best hitter in all AAA this year, which arguably makes him the best hitter in all milb this year.

It's not babip fuelled like most others here, and he's younger than all of them other than Eldridge (who's rocking a .485babip).

No guarantee that Keys hits in mlb this year, but it's really hard not to call him up when you're a team in a playoffs race in need of offense.
 
Passing on Robert and letting him go to a team you are competing with sure is a choice when your top RHH OF in Cameron and Straw have a 22 and 65 WRC+ respectively.

Im all for giving Keys a shot, but like where the fuck does he play? He's just starting to take OF reps, and assuming Smith comes back to the team as well you have Smith, Sanchez, Keys, Lukes as LHH., i think in order to give Keys meaningful PA you need to punt Sanchez, which, maybe?
 
Most of the jays hitters are creeping back up to their preseason projections:


Projected Starters

Close to projections

LF Sanchez 420pa, 106wrc+ ---> 288pa, 109wrc+ (+3)
3B Okamoto 560pa, 111wrc+ ---> 543pa, 111wrc+ (--)
C Alejandro 495pa, 116wrc+ --> 238pa, 115wrc+ (-1)
2B Clement 644pa, 97wrc+ ---> 535pa, 93wrc+ (-4)
DH Springer 595pa, 120wrc+ ---> 440pa, 112wrc+ (-8)
CF Varsho 595pa, 102wrc+ ---> 365pa, 92wrc+ (-10)

Moderately below

SS Gimenez 595pa, 95wrc+ ---> 436pa, 78wrc+ (-17)

Bigly below

1B Guerrero 679pa, 148wrc+ ---> 520pa, 93wrc+ (-55)
RF Barger 518pa, 109wrc+ ---> 28pa, 1wrc+ (-108)


Projected Bench

UT Lukes 294pa, 108wrc+ ---> 364pa, 101wrc+ (-7)
OF Straw 182pa, 72wrc+ ---> 273pa, 78wrc+ (+6)
IF Schneider 322pa, 106wrc+ ---> 140pa, 70wrc+ (-36)
C Valenzuela 13pa, 68wrc+ ---> 241pa, 94wrc+ (+26)


Both Smith (122) and Urias (123) gave us a nice boost, and those two plus Schneider have combined to give us a 91wrc+, so were on our way to mitigating Schneider's underperformance, but both were injured quickly. Tho we also wasted time with Sosa, which amplified the underperformance. But given Valenzuela's overperformance, it's hard to say the projected bench has done much different than expected. And Smith at least and maybe Urias too should be back from injury and hopefully at least one of them can pick up where they left off.


Bateman has given us a big jolt in the starting lineup, and now him and Varsho combined this year have given us a 99wrc+, which is pretty much bang on Varsho's preseason projection, so no real hit there now.

Gimenez is what he is, and that "underperformance" is probably baked in at this point.

so the two big outstanding differences from the preseason projections are getting pretty isolated - Vladdy's massive underperformance, and Barger's injury.

We just have to hope on vladdy getting hot

The best way to fill in the Barger gap might be promoting Keys. Maybe.
 
So basically this team is a vladdy away from being super elite again? Hopefully he returns from the dead by the playoffs, and they'll be a force to be reckoned with.

Playoffs odds are up to 25% as per fangraphs, so obviously this next series is quite crucial. Not quite make or break or do or die, but pretty important!
 
Preston said:
So basically this team is a vladdy away from being super elite again? Hopefully he returns from the dead by the playoffs, and they'll be a force to be reckoned with.

Playoffs odds are up to 25% as per fangraphs, so obviously this next series is quite crucial. Not quite make or break or do or die, but pretty important!
Click to expand...
Starting to feel the weakness of the opponents in the schedule. We might go on a roll with that drop in quality lining up against us.
 
Preston said:
So basically this team is a vladdy away from being super elite again? Hopefully he returns from the dead by the playoffs, and they'll be a force to be reckoned with.

Playoffs odds are up to 25% as per fangraphs, so obviously this next series is quite crucial. Not quite make or break or do or die, but pretty important!
Click to expand...

Super elite is a bit 🤏 much. But yeah, cant afford our star 500M stud be a singles hitting first baseman
 
For those of you thinking were just Vlad figuring it out away from being a good offensive team again, we are near dead last in barrel rate and slg. This is nto a good offensive club, and there needs to be a creative process to add a high end bat to this group in the offseason.

The areas in which to make that upgrade are obvious.
 
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Preston said:
2nd in the AL since July 27! I would agree that they were soft as dog shit prior to that, but this is not a team I'd want to run into right now.
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That’s not a big sample size in baseball. Like having a good record over 15 games in the NHL
 
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