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New Canadian Politics Thread

thehabhater said:
The Right votes every single election. When you look at voting trends, the same number of voters on the right vote everytime.
Liberals tend to vote when they are angry, which increases the total.

So logically, more voters voting should favor the Liberals.
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This isn’t like any election in our lives between Trump, economy, last minute unknown liberal candidates, amount of misinformation and uninformed people voting, etc

I have a know someone that is 31 years old, from Toronto, LGBT, Jewish, uni educated and didn’t know what woke was or anything PP was saying that was aligned with MAGA. Had to start showing videos and quotes from PP to break through that she would be voting against her own rights. Now vote is switched (apparently). Just fucken uneducated people that could fuck up Canada like people did with electing Trump.

I don’t trust anything until results are counted.
 
Naysayers say there is a pension play here for Singh but still, pretty happy he didn't call the elections early.

www.bnnbloomberg.ca

Singh couldn’t ‘stomach idea’ of a Conservative majority, no regrets on no fall vote

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh said he has no regrets about not triggering a fall election, because he couldn’t “stomach the idea” of Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre forming a majority government and wanted more time for pharmacare to be entrenched.
www.bnnbloomberg.ca www.bnnbloomberg.ca
 
CTheBigPicture said:
Naysayers say there is a pension play here for Singh but still, pretty happy he didn't call the elections early.

www.bnnbloomberg.ca

Singh couldn’t ‘stomach idea’ of a Conservative majority, no regrets on no fall vote

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh said he has no regrets about not triggering a fall election, because he couldn’t “stomach the idea” of Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre forming a majority government and wanted more time for pharmacare to be entrenched.
www.bnnbloomberg.ca www.bnnbloomberg.ca
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Singh didn’t force an election in the fall because the polls showed the NDP was going to get killed then, too. It wasn’t some noble sacrifice designed to keep the CPC out.
 
worm said:
Not a big enough lead
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Voting efficiency. Getting 105% of the vote in AB + Sask doesn't matter nationally.

There are some Canadian nuances here that I think wallpaper how meh Conservative support really is. That we've hit the best before date on this era of Liberals and the country is this willing to give it another spin with a new driver at the wheel says a lot. Every normal historic trend of Canadian federal politics was going the wrong way and has added 5-10% to Conservative support.

That same poll has them +8 in Ontario, +18 over the CPC in Quebec. Being +24 in AB is a big nothingburger when the two provinces with a combined ~60% of the population and seats has the LPC ahead so heavily.
 
MindzEye said:
Voting efficiency. Getting 105% of the vote in AB + Sask doesn't matter nationally.

There are some Canadian nuances here that I think wallpaper how meh Conservative support really is. That we've hit the best before date on this era of Liberals and the country is this willing to give it another spin with a new driver at the wheel says a lot. Every normal historic trend of Canadian federal politics was going the wrong way and has added 5-10% to Conservative support.

That same poll has them +8 in Ontario, +18 over the CPC in Quebec. Being +24 in AB is a big nothingburger when the two provinces with a combined ~60% of the population and seats has the LPC ahead so heavily.
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But tiktok
 
Cons still have way too much support for my liking

I have seen a bunch of PPC signs in Edmonton.

My riding is basically a tie and that is even with the NDP losing votes to liberals.

The current mayor is running for liberals and seems to be in the lead. And another riding is NDP safe. The rest are toss ups.
 
worm said:
Cons still have way too much support for my liking

I have seen a bunch of PPC signs in Edmonton.

My riding is basically a tie and that is even with the NDP losing votes to liberals.

The current mayor is running for liberals and seems to be in the lead. And another riding is NDP safe. The rest are toss ups.
Click to expand...

Looking at 338's Edmonton map, the only seats of the 9 there that aren't considered toss ups are 1 Liberal and 1 NDP seats. Lib + NDP won 3 of the 9 (there's been some map shuffling since then...) and look pretty likely to do about the same this time around. I don't think that's a bad looking situation in Edmonton at all. LPC won a single seat in Calgary in 2021 and look likely to win at least 2 on Monday.
 
It's normal to be nervous and I completely get being skeptical of the polls. But you know who isn't skeptical of the polls?

Pierre fucking Poilievre. If he was skeptical of the polls, he wouldn't be running back to Carleton trying to save his seat. He would be confident that the polls were fake fucking news and he would be on a barn storming tour across the country starting in Surrey-Richmond (~10 LPC leanings/toss ups), the 905 (5 toss ups and a bunch of LPC leaners close enough to make a race out of), Edmonton(8 toss ups), & Calgary (3 toss ups), shaking hands and kissing babies trying to win this thing.

He's not. He's knocking doors in Carleton trying to remind his constituents who he is so that he doesn't lose his job. Because he knows the polls are right.
 
MindzEye said:
It's normal to be nervous and I completely get being skeptical of the polls. But you know who isn't skeptical of the polls?

Pierre fucking Poilievre. If he was skeptical of the polls, he wouldn't be running back to Carleton trying to save his seat. He would be confident that the polls were fake fucking news and he would be on a barn storming tour across the country starting in Surrey-Richmond (~10 LPC leanings/toss ups), the 905 (5 toss ups and a bunch of LPC leaners close enough to make a race out of), Edmonton(8 toss ups), & Calgary (3 toss ups), shaking hands and kissing babies trying to win this thing.

He's not. He's knocking doors in Carleton trying to remind his constituents who he is so that he doesn't lose his job. Because he knows the polls are right.
Click to expand...
I don't trust PP to be smart though...

I'm confident the liberals will win but there is a path for the cons still and I don't like that.
 
There's a mathematical path, but not a logical one imo. They would have to win every toss up to win one of the weakest minorities in Canadian history.

We're not even talking about Trump's "threading the needle" in 5-6 states to win. We're talking about "threading the needle" in like 30 ridings to end up at a very weak minority.
 
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