GDT #15: 2026/10/28 - Late Night with Bobby McMann

Yeah starting to look like the Bob signing could be Chundin’s first big especially if they’re too proud to do the right thing. They did spend all that time at the start of the season blowing him so they probably won’t move on easily.

View: https://www.instagram.com/reel/DfEEA5WvW70/?rpxt=NDE0OW9jaW53eTg5

Chayka fucked this up bad
I have no interest watching games with this guy in the net
Skipped it and wasn’t surprised we let 5 in, watched replay, oh boy, it is even worse than I thought

XGF (NST):
Games 1-5: 45.6%
6-10: 45.0%
11-15: 50.1%

I guess they are actually getting better, even though the last two games have been shit.

Oh and Hiller is fucking pussy for putting him in or not pulling

Goals Against above Expected:
Leafs: -1.21 (15th)

Goals Saved Above Expected
Stolarz - 0.299 (25th/71)
Bob- 0.0 (34th)

Leafs goaltending has been average.

Really wanted them to come away dominating the last two games against trash teams. Failed miserably. Too bad.

Bob has exceeded my expectations so far. He's been a good amount better than last year so I hope that continues because that would mean they avoided the worst case scenario.

we could've spent way, way less on just average goaltending that's all.

Ya I'm not saying the way they handled the goaltending was smart. I just feared this would go way worse than this.

The benefit of having nightmarish expectations!

hockeylover said:

we could've spent way, way less on just average goaltending that's all.

Click to expand...

Is the 35+ age rule still in effect where you are stuck with the full cap hit and no LTIR relief

Our record should have been incredibly better than it is due to goaltending.

If we miss the playoffs, this is 100% why and it’s inexcusable

GEEMAN said:

Is the 35+ age rule still in effect where you are stuck with the full cap hit and no LTIR relief

Click to expand...

Nah.

According to MoneyPuck our goaltending has won 0.25 games above average.

Our record should be worse than it is based on their 5v5 play, which is trash. Average goaltending with their offensive talent should be more than enough to win a lot. But they don’t generate enough offense and they give up way too much. They didn’t even have 1 xG 5v5 last night.

You probably could've improved the team more if you hadn't spent $15m on just okay goaltending though.

They are only spending $3 mill more than Woll/Stolarz and Woll has also been average.

The coaching is a bigger problem IMO. I’d buy the goaltending if they were like the devils and had great nerdies but shit goaltending.

But they are 27th in xGF/60, which is insane with this talent and the same in xGA/60.

They are getting by solely on their skill. Matthews/McKenna are the only reason they even had a chance last night. You aren’t going to win like this, even with elite goaltending. We’ve already seen that.

Went to bed at 3-2.

Got up expecting to see a 6-3 win.

Not really.

3 years of Bob at that AAV is a struggle. Only NYR is spending more on goaltending. It's not ideal and was very obviously a really dumb decision not really driven by data. But in any case, the issue is probably not coaching. Injuries are crushing them right now, that's the #1 issue for me. But their ability to absorb injuries based on this roster construction is less than ideal too. You look at Carolina and NJ and teams like that.. They've got 4 lines of players that can make plays at a pretty high level at both ends of the ice. Leafs don't really have that. They have elite talent (some of it highly flawed and contribute to their crippling neutral zone issues) and uni-taskers in the bottom half of their lineup that don't really drive possession.

They were really bad last year, probably the worst team in the NHL. To expect to be a very good team after one summer is probably asking too much, so I'm not even sure how much I'd blame Chayka. I do think he could have done better and as Mindz said, chose to target more Arvidsson's and less plugs (or at least commit fewer dollars and maintain more flexibility on the balance sheet for next season), but at the end of the day, it was a lot to ask to turn things around too aggressively.

It’s been Berube bad. They just have skill again.

I don’t buy the talent level of the team either.There are teams with worse talent doing much better. You’re telling me they don’t have the talent to compete with team like Pittsburgh, Detroit, Bruins, Rangers, Flames (Who are all top 15+ in nerdies)?

Hiller wouldn't have been my choice, I can sorta see the thinking I guess but I also don't see them firing him already.

But hey, Chayka's pretty cut throat so maybe.