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2019-Whenever Misc. Grab Bag Thread

andyt said:
As for Alabama, Florida, South Carolina, etc. not wanting FSU and Clemson, if the TV revenue increases, and allows the SEC to catch the Big 10, do you really think they’ll turn that down?
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Do we know that it does, though? Or that any revenue increase would be sufficient to bridge that gap? No, we don't. That gap in TV revenue is more a factor of contract timing right now that anything else, but nobody's talking about that. With ad revenues going down and nobody real sure how to capture streaming revenues, do we really think the next round of contracts will follow the model of he current ones? I mean, none of this stuff is half as much a given as everybody seems to think.
 
jeffbear said:
Do we know that it does, though? Or that any revenue increase would be sufficient to bridge that gap? No, we don't. That gap in TV revenue is more a factor of contract timing right now that anything else, but nobody's talking about that. With ad revenues going down and nobody real sure how to capture streaming revenues, do we really think the next round of contracts will follow the model of he current ones? I mean, none of this stuff is half as much a given as everybody seems to think.
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ESPN just dropped nearly $8 billion for an extension of the college football playoff. They also have their share of the NBA contract coming up after next season and have already started negotiations. I think they’ll prioritize pro and college football and the NBA and everything else will fall by the wayside. They also announced a crackdown on password sharing on ESPN+, which was one of their selling features when they bundled Hulu, Disney and ESPN. That could cut both ways, either driving up subscriptions or reducing their streaming base if families decide it’s not worth it If they can’t share with family members.
 
Point is ... we don't know an awful lot. And the fact that they've over spent on contracts is nothing new and is kind of why they're in their current mess in the first place. I don't have a ton of confidence that ESPN can spend their way out of the mess they're in and I'm 100% certain that they won't get there with the password sharing crack down. In truth, if they're going to fulfill their obligations, the streaming models don't really work at all right now. Cutting out loose, unpaying parts probably won't matter one way or the other. It didn't for any of the other services who cracked down. ESPN is darned lucky that the recent Disney Board takeover didn't happen, because otherwise they'd be on the auction block right now. I'm not at all confident that ESPN is going to get to the end of that new CFA contract without going to the kind of pay per view or subscription pricing that will REALLY test the market.
 
Follow up ... I'm not pooh-poohing the idea that ESPN (and the other networks) won't have any involvement in whatever goes down in college football going forward. I am simply less convinced that the money train is some sort of inevitable force of nature that will continue on uninterrupted and thus make the networks the only voice that matters. Not with so very many factors that have disrupted the pipeline between advertising revenue and the product itself. ESPN isn't the one with the money, really ... it's the betting shops, car companies and the big brewers who ultimately have the money.
 
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