Aatos Koivu, the son of former NHLer Saku Koivu, has experienced significant development over the past year, both physically and on the ice. He has noticeably grown stronger since last year; now listed at 6’00” and 165 pounds, compared to his previous listing of 5’10” and 126 pounds last season. He was a late bloomer who had never played internationally in big events for Finland until this year. Originally cut from the Hlinka Gretzky U18 team in the summer, he became the number one center for the U18 team at the Five Nations’ Tournament in November.
Having begun the season in Finland’s U18 league, he was called up to the U20 team after averaging over a point per game. There, he continued to maintain a similar ratio. He even had the opportunity to play some games in the Liiga. This progression exemplifies a great development curve. Aatos himself admitted that he initially expected to play the full season in the U18 league, with the NHL Draft not even on his radar at the start of the year.
Koivu is a smart center who plays solid hockey at both ends of the ice. The effort level that was a huge part of his father’s game is also present in his. He’s not as physical as his father was, but he works hard and doesn’t quit on plays. Could the physicality come as he matures physically? It’s possible, and this is not to say that he’s a soft player, either. He just is not strong enough at the moment to really make a big physical impact, and tends to be on the wrong end of physical battles along the boards. Due to his lack of strength, he tends to stay on the perimeter; he will need to play more on the inside in order to enjoy more offensive success. Early on in the U20 league, he was having success in terms of speed, shooting and his play on the man-advantage. At some point teams did figure him out, and his production cooled off as a result. Some fatigue may have also come into play in terms of his production. He had 22 points in his first 15 games in the U20 league, ending the year with 9 points in his last 13. This is where he needs to add more dimension to his game, one of which is playing more inside, especially in the context of the North American style of play. This could become easier for him once he adds more strength to his frame, as he's currently quite slim.
Offensively, his best weapon is his shot, a big contrast from his father who probably wished he had his son's shooting skills. At the junior level and in international competitions, Aatos has demonstrated his shooting ability successfully. He has shown the ability to score from distance, often on the power play while playing from the Ovechkin spot, and was quite successful at this. He has a quick release, can pick corners with his shot and his velocity is considerably good. As of now, however, his shooting skills have been more noticeable than his passing skills. We wish we saw more projection with his playmaking but have yet to see significant high-end playmaking from him. Though this could develop over time, our observations this season suggest limited high-end playmaking from him, which impacts our NHL projection for him.
Another strong asset is his skating. While still physically weak, he does generate some real good speed. He can challenge defenders with his outside speed, good acceleration and agility on the ice. That acceleration enables him to create distance quickly to escape pressure. He’s a good transition player because of that, and has good enough hands to beat players in the neutral zone and make good zone entries.
Koivu is a tough one to rank and to project because he’s quite physically raw, and that affects some parts of his game. The exciting news is that there’s been solid improvement from last year to now. Considering the development that is still left to do makes his profile intriguing. However, it also leaves us grappling with how much he'll improve over the next 2-3 years, which complicates his projection. His development curve from August 2023 to January 2024 was incredible, but since then, it appears to have plateaued. The latter part of the season combined with international events (February U18 Five Nations, April U18 World Championship) have tempered our enthusiasm when it comes to ranking him aggressively. While we still see potential in the player, we now view him more as a mid or late-round pick.
thehockeywriters.com