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Around the League 2019-2023 Edition

He looks pretty cooked. I'm not sure he gets there by the end of this contract. He has 3 5v5 goals this year when he's good for 20-25+ every year. his shot rates are way down, his ixG is way down, hits are way down.

There's nothing in his contract that provides incentive to hang them up early, but even if he maintains this scoring rate for 2 more seasons after this, he'll fall short. We're also seeing the change of the game baked into this I think. It's just hard to keep up as an old man. Pavelski just had a pretty legendary 38 yr old season with 28 goals (4th most all time for 38 yr olds). Only 2 39 yr olds have scored more than 20 in the last 10 years (Marty St Louis had 21, Shane Doan had 28) and it's downhill from there. The only guy who has put up 39 & 40 yr old season in the modernish era is Selanne. He scored 58 total goals at 39-40. If Ovy finishes the season at his current pace he'll have 842. He would need 53 more to take the record. If he's cooked, it's over, he's just not going to get there. He needs to pull old man Selanne out of his ass to get there before the end of this contract.
 
There are some people that life bends over backwards for - Gretz is one of them. Of course as soon as it looks like Ovie is going to break it, he falls off a cliff. Gretz is one of those guys who can stroll blindfolded across a busy freeway and just feel strong breezes before he safely gets to the other side.
 
In fairness to Gretz, he kind of deserves to keep that record imo. He was still a good #1C when he retired. Simply being 6th in the league in assists wasn't to a high enough standard for him to bother sticking around. He could have milked an easy 1-2 more years and then a retirement tour year if he wanted to and put up another 20-30 goals. Ovy only really "looked" like he was going to break the record if he continued being legendary into his late 30's, which even most legends don't do.
 
Well, Gretz himself has said that when all he could muster was 9 goals in that final season, he knew it was time to go. I’m sure he could’ve padded those assist stats for a bit longer, but the man himself thought the goals had dried up. Though you’d think he’d have wanted to cross the 900 mark…
 
I think Gretz is just being humble when he says that. Most players don't leave while they're still really good. Jordan could have stuck around as a 6th man until he was in his 40's. Gretzky as a sheltered offensive C and PP specialist for a few more years early. They leave when they feel like they can't live up to their extremely elevated expectation of themselves.
 
He looks pretty cooked. I'm not sure he gets there by the end of this contract. He has 3 5v5 goals this year when he's good for 20-25+ every year. his shot rates are way down, his ixG is way down, hits are way down.

There's nothing in his contract that provides incentive to hang them up early, but even if he maintains this scoring rate for 2 more seasons after this, he'll fall short. We're also seeing the change of the game baked into this I think. It's just hard to keep up as an old man. Pavelski just had a pretty legendary 38 yr old season with 28 goals (4th most all time for 38 yr olds). Only 2 39 yr olds have scored more than 20 in the last 10 years (Marty St Louis had 21, Shane Doan had 28) and it's downhill from there. The only guy who has put up 39 & 40 yr old season in the modernish era is Selanne. He scored 58 total goals at 39-40. If Ovy finishes the season at his current pace he'll have 842. He would need 53 more to take the record. If he's cooked, it's over, he's just not going to get there. He needs to pull old man Selanne out of his ass to get there before the end of this contract.

Figure he will pull a Chelios and play until 45 if he has to. I hope after his current deal some khl team offers him a ton of money so he doesn't crawl over the finish line.
 
Figure he will pull a Chelios and play until 45 if he has to. I hope after his current deal some khl team offers him a ton of money so he doesn't crawl over the finish line.

He might try to but I'm not entirely sure there. Washington is going to be looking to rebuild soon, probably before the end of that contract. Are they going to pay him to stay? Because he definitely gets offered a big ass bag of laundered oligarch money to go to the KHL. If he does stay on the cheap to chase the record, does the rebuild regime want him or play him? He's been pretty close to unplayable this year at 5's. Crushed in the nerdies while he chases offence. Can't see too many coaches wanting that as an example to kids.
 
He might try to but I'm not entirely sure there. Washington is going to be looking to rebuild soon, probably before the end of that contract. Are they going to pay him to stay? Because he definitely gets offered a big ass bag of laundered oligarch money to go to the KHL. If he does stay on the cheap to chase the record, does the rebuild regime want him or play him? He's been pretty close to unplayable this year at 5's. Crushed in the nerdies while he chases offence. Can't see too many coaches wanting that as an example to kids.
If they are rebuilding I bet they do as a favour. This is the org that has protected him from his relationship with Putin.

I'm hoping not. Never thought I would actively cheer against someone breaking a Wayne record but here we are
 
He might try to but I'm not entirely sure there. Washington is going to be looking to rebuild soon, probably before the end of that contract. Are they going to pay him to stay? Because he definitely gets offered a big ass bag of laundered oligarch money to go to the KHL. If he does stay on the cheap to chase the record, does the rebuild regime want him or play him? He's been pretty close to unplayable this year at 5's. Crushed in the nerdies while he chases offence. Can't see too many coaches wanting that as an example to kids.


The Caps will pay Ovi whatever he wants pretty much as long as he wants to keep playing. At least until he gets the record.

Both because Leonsis is an Ovi fanboy and because I’d guess that he wants to have the franchise prestige of having the NHL’s all-time leading goal scorer be a lifetime Cap.

As for the KHL—wouldn’t it be better for propaganda purposes if Putin waits until his boy becomes “the greatest goal-scorer ever” before bringing him home to finish his career in Russia?
 
The Caps will pay Ovi whatever he wants pretty much as long as he wants to keep playing. At least until he gets the record.

Both because Leonsis is an Ovi fanboy and because I’d guess that he wants to have the franchise prestige of having the NHL’s all-time leading goal scorer be a lifetime Cap.

As for the KHL—wouldn’t it be better for propaganda purposes if Putin waits until his boy becomes “the greatest goal-scorer ever” before bringing him home to finish his career in Russia?

All kind of depends on how the next 2.5 years go. If his decline continues from this barely playable point, he might be completely cooked before the end of this contract. You can only wheel someone out for so long regardless of what you hope they can do once they're on the ice. Cooked is cooked.
 
He looks pretty cooked. I'm not sure he gets there by the end of this contract. He has 3 5v5 goals this year when he's good for 20-25+ every year. his shot rates are way down, his ixG is way down, hits are way down.

There's nothing in his contract that provides incentive to hang them up early, but even if he maintains this scoring rate for 2 more seasons after this, he'll fall short. We're also seeing the change of the game baked into this I think. It's just hard to keep up as an old man. Pavelski just had a pretty legendary 38 yr old season with 28 goals (4th most all time for 38 yr olds). Only 2 39 yr olds have scored more than 20 in the last 10 years (Marty St Louis had 21, Shane Doan had 28) and it's downhill from there. The only guy who has put up 39 & 40 yr old season in the modernish era is Selanne. He scored 58 total goals at 39-40. If Ovy finishes the season at his current pace he'll have 842. He would need 53 more to take the record. If he's cooked, it's over, he's just not going to get there. He needs to pull old man Selanne out of his ass to get there before the end of this contract.
Selanne also had the advantage of two guys at the prime in their careers (Getzlaf & Perry) as teammates. Now I can't remember how much he played with either premier forward; but those guys would be attracting the most attention from the opposing teams (not Selanne at that point in his career). As you said, the Caps are at a different point in their franchise than the Ducks were in Selanne's twilight years.
 
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