• Moderators, please send me a PM if you are unable to access mod permissions. Thanks, Habsy.

Around the League 2019-2024 Edition

Apparently he didn't have enough.

The decisions are poor and just a step above piss-poor.
 
zeke said:
Holland had tons of caproom to work with.

Their blueline costs the same as the Leafs', but with longer committments.

Their goalies cost the same too, but with longer committments.

Their bottom 6 forwards are more expensive than the leafs', but with longer committments.
Click to expand...

He just does nothing creative. Simply hands out term and $ to the obvious guy on the FA market.
 
Habsy said:
And now we seem to have competent management.

And there's nothing worse than shitting the bed for over a half decade and having to hear about it almost daily from media and fans.

This is so cute how you've convinced yourself losing is better.
Click to expand...
That’s not what he is saying though.
 
I'm not here to change anyone's mind, but I love how the Habs fortunes played out the past few years.

They enjoyed a magical playoff ride, including a crazy 11-2 run. A few months later they underwent the rebuild I've been wanting for half a decade.

Too bad we missed Bedard by a year, but we'll probably still end up with a 10% chance to get him.
 
I dunno, when you still stink with the two major fruits of your rebuild leading the way up front, that's usually not a great sign.
 
Habsy said:
Ok now I'm getting you more. I don't view 100 points as elite. I always felt very good was that vernacular. Elite to me was 110 and up because I've seen plenty of meh teams hit 100 in a season (usually due to strength of schedule). That doesn't generally happen with 110 teams.
Click to expand...

It's a floating value really because point totals shift from season to season and honestly, with the loser point system it's fairly easy to scratch together 5+ points on the luck inherent in 3v3 and shootout wins. So it boils down to "what makes a great steak", the answer is a fairly complicated venn diagram of factors but not all of them need to overlap the same way. In most seasons there's 2-4 regular season teams ahead of everyone else and then another group of ~5 clubs that are really close to as good to the top group and then there's a noticeable drop off to bubble teams. so whatever you want to call that top tier of clubs that separate themselves from the pack, the cup winner comes from there every year.
Habsy said:
Are the Leafs elite rn? Sure, can't say otherwise. Are the Kraken? Sure.
Click to expand...

Are the Kraken actually elite though?

- 104 point pace (9th) , T-10th in regulation time wins
- 20th in 5v5 expected goals for (1st in the NHL in goals for...so something has to give here)
- 10th in 5v5 expected goals against (10th in goals against...so this tracks, and gives us an indication that they're good but not great defensively at 5's)
- 17th in overall xG% (5v5)
- Powerplay is bad (below average GF/60 and 31st overall in xGF/60)
- Penalty kill is bad-ish (31st in GA/60, 14th in expected)
- 28th in team sv%

I don't see anything elite about them. They're leading the universe in shooting percentage and play in a weak division. I'd say that they've been super fortunate to play at a 104 point and are likely to regress in the 2nd half. But even if they found a way and didn't, 9th in point pace and 13th in regulation outcomes isn't not an elite club.

This kind of underlines my overall point. When you actually open up the hood, an elite club looks like an "elite" club. Here's that exact same assessment on a club with 1 more regular season point at the moment:

Tampa:

- 106 point pace (8th), T-10th regulation time wins
- 4th in 5v5 expected goals for, (11th in goals for)
- 14th in expected goals against, (14th in goals against)
- 5th in xG%
- Powerplay is probably very good, but maybe some red flags. 5th in GF/60, but 20th in xGF. I don't think it's crazy to assume that their shooting skill can outperform expected here consistently though.
- PK is okay. 11th in GA/60, 18th in xGA. Again there's red flags, but I don't think it's crazy to believe that Vasy can drag them to consistently out performing their expected goals against here.
- 12th in team SV%....but let's be real, when the playoffs start you're facing a top 5 goaltending team. Their backup dragging their team numbers down doesn't really matter.


So we can get lost in the weeds of what is and isn't truly elite (Tampa hasn't been as good as Toronto, Boston, Carolina this year, no). But is there enough there for us to be shocked on a historic level if they won another cup? Of course not. They're very much in that group of 2nd tier elite (Cap E Elite vs small e elite if you will). Tampa is a bit of puck luck and a .930+ Vasy run away from another cup, Seattle is multiple top tier player additions away. But they're separated by 1 point in the standings right now, 2 points on pace.
 
I like most of Gorton/Hughes moves so far really. And the stated vision seems like a path other teams have a lot of success with.

Takes some luck too when rebuilding so we'll see but I'd have a decent amount of hope. Hardest part is probably that stage between rebuilding and when you're expected to take a step forward, Sens seem to be finding that out.
 
zeke said:
still capped out with a ton of longterm deadweight.
Click to expand...

but that had nothing to do with them going to the final; most of the bigger mistakes were made prior. going to the final was an underserved delight
 
MindzEye said:
It's a floating value really because point totals shift from season to season and honestly, with the loser point system it's fairly easy to scratch together 5+ points on the luck inherent in 3v3 and shootout wins. So it boils down to "what makes a great steak", the answer is a fairly complicated venn diagram of factors but not all of them need to overlap the same way. In most seasons there's 2-4 regular season teams ahead of everyone else and then another group of ~5 clubs that are really close to as good to the top group and then there's a noticeable drop off to bubble teams. so whatever you want to call that top tier of clubs that separate themselves from the pack, the cup winner comes from there every year.


Are the Kraken actually elite though?

- 104 point pace (9th) , T-10th in regulation time wins
- 20th in 5v5 expected goals for (1st in the NHL in goals for...so something has to give here)
- 10th in 5v5 expected goals against (10th in goals against...so this tracks, and gives us an indication that they're good but not great defensively at 5's)
- 17th in overall xG% (5v5)
- Powerplay is bad (below average GF/60 and 31st overall in xGF/60)
- Penalty kill is bad-ish (31st in GA/60, 14th in expected)
- 28th in team sv%

I don't see anything elite about them. They're leading the universe in shooting percentage and play in a weak division. I'd say that they've been super fortunate to play at a 104 point and are likely to regress in the 2nd half. But even if they found a way and didn't, 9th in point pace and 13th in regulation outcomes isn't not an elite club.

This kind of underlines my overall point. When you actually open up the hood, an elite club looks like an "elite" club. Here's that exact same assessment on a club with 1 more regular season point at the moment:

Tampa:

- 106 point pace (8th), T-10th regulation time wins
- 4th in 5v5 expected goals for, (11th in goals for)
- 14th in expected goals against, (14th in goals against)
- 5th in xG%
- Powerplay is probably very good, but maybe some red flags. 5th in GF/60, but 20th in xGF. I don't think it's crazy to assume that their shooting skill can outperform expected here consistently though.
- PK is okay. 11th in GA/60, 18th in xGA. Again there's red flags, but I don't think it's crazy to believe that Vasy can drag them to consistently out performing their expected goals against here.
- 12th in team SV%....but let's be real, when the playoffs start you're facing a top 5 goaltending team. Their backup dragging their team numbers down doesn't really matter.


So we can get lost in the weeds of what is and isn't truly elite (Tampa hasn't been as good as Toronto, Boston, Carolina this year, no). But is there enough there for us to be shocked on a historic level if they won another cup? Of course not. They're very much in that group of 2nd tier elite (Cap E Elite vs small e elite if you will). Tampa is a bit of puck luck and a .930+ Vasy run away from another cup, Seattle is multiple top tier player additions away. But they're separated by 1 point in the standings right now, 2 points on pace.
Click to expand...
I agree with you regarding the Kraken. They're playing well, not elite, but go ask the media. They're elite like the Leafs and 98% of hockey fan is eye test stupid.
 
CH1 said:
but that had nothing to do with them going to the final; most of the bigger mistakes were made prior. going to the final was an underserved delight
Click to expand...

seem to remember him making a number of dumb moves that ensuing summer.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top