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Around the League 2019-2024 Edition

Habsy said:
We have 45 contracts. You do the math.
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45+3=48

48 < 50

math-hmm.gif
 
It's not a great draft later on. Like every year there will be hidden gems but it really tails off.
 
Wayward DP said:
that's all well and good but it doesn't really make any sense to be shedding assets to move up in the draft unless you know the guy(s) you want are available, which they obviously do not at present
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To me there's around 15-20 super interesting guys, then a bit of a drop off. So if they have a list of at least 21 guys they really want, it makes total sense to move up. After 20, there's another 10 to 15 guys that are pretty interesting, but that's when it really becomes a crapshoot.
 
Habsy said:
And? Probabilities of a 21 overall working out over a late second and sixth?
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Depends on whose work you like and what you're valuing. But the OG math on draft slot value is this guys work:


He has the 21 slot at 336 pts, and the 26+57+198 at 531 points. This guy measured the historic value returned by each player slot in the draft fwiw, and used games played as his core metric. 531 points of total value would be equivalent to the 11th overall pick fwiw.

This guy took a different approach and looked at the actual trade value of the picks when they were moved for each other:


The value works out slightly in the Kings favour, very slightly but more or less even.

This is kind of the core market inefficiency at work here. Trading down generates more surplus player value than the cost in trade. That's why dumb.

You guys just paid the pretty established "trade value" of the pick almost perfectly. But historically, the pick slots you just gave up will return almost double the player value (again, measured in the likelihood of generating a player who plays 200+ games in their career)
 
MindzEye said:
Depends on whose work you like and what you're valuing. But the OG math on draft slot value is this guys work:


He has the 21 slot at 336 pts, and the 26+57+198 at 531 points. This guy measured the historic value returned by each player slot in the draft fwiw, and used games played as his core metric. 531 points of total value would be equivalent to the 11th overall pick fwiw.

This guy took a different approach and looked at the actual trade value of the picks when they were moved for each other:


The value works out slightly in the Kings favour, very slightly but more or less even.

This is kind of the core market inefficiency at work here. Trading down generates more surplus player value than the cost in trade. That's why dumb.

You guys just paid the pretty established "trade value" of the pick almost perfectly. But historically, the pick slots you just gave up will return almost double the player value (again, measured in the likelihood of generating a player who plays 200+ games in their career)
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The picks don't matter. It was the Avs second. We have two thirds. One early.

This is before the trade

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The picks always matter. The picks are future player value.

You got the pick by giving up player value now (Lehkonen I'm going to guess....good player).

Either trade the picks for player value now, or for the appropriate amount of future player value.
 
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