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Around the League 2019-2024 Edition

GEEMAN said:
You rarely get burnt going term with younger core players
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Non elite ones? Hard disagree. Some of the worst contracts out there are kids that bad teams threw bags at before they had earned it.

Yes, lock up your high end kids as soon as possible. But guys without legit star ceilings? No.
 
leafman101 said:
What are you signing him for long term?

Dom's model has him worth $3 mill, so giving him $5 mill or something is a way bigger gamble than the Guhle/Faber type deals. And unless he has a massive 60 point year how much more would you really have to pay him next year.

6 x $4 would be good if he'd take it.
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no chance he takes that
 
MindzEye said:
Non elite ones? Hard disagree. Some of the worst contracts out there are kids that bad teams threw bags at before they had earned it.

Yes, lock up your high end kids as soon as possible. But guys without legit star ceilings? No.
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Give me examples of totally getting burnt
 
I don't get it. Why would any of this be a one size fits all scenario? There are some players worth doing this for. And others aren't. In every case, it's gonna be somewhat of a risk, it's just a matter of assigning a likelihood on it paying off for the individual.
 
Some power forward winger comps:

Hagel - 26 gls, 75 pts, +11 Off, +3 Def, $9.4 mill Dom value, 1% HP D+3 star%
Kempe - 30 gls, 80 pts, +10 Off, +1 Def, $8.0 mill , 0%
Vilardi - 38 gls, 63 pts, +9 Off, -3 Def, $6.3 mll, 43%
Marchment - 22 gls, 54 pts, +4 Off, +2 Def, $5.8 mill, 0%
Bertuzzi - 21 gls, 43 pts, +5 Off, +0 Def, $5.6 mill, 0%
Crouse - 23 gls, 43 pts, +0 Off, +0 Def, $3.6 mill, 2%

Knies, 15 gls, 36 pts, -1 Off, +0 Off, $3.6 mill, 2%

Its all about what you think his upside is. If you sign the big deal (6 x$5-6 ish) you are betting him becoming a legit top line forward for there to be good value there. Otherwise the better value is on shorter term deals probably.
 
GEEMAN said:
My point was coming out ELC - second contract only

I would have zero issues paying 5.5 x 6 years
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A lot of those are 2nd contracts.

I disagree that he's worth it now, and I'm not convinced that he's ever going to be worth enough surplus value to recoup value on the back end of the contract. We're talking about him being worth ~3.5 million now, I don't see him being worth 8+ million on the back end to make the overpay now, worth it later.
 
leafman101 said:
Some power forward winger comps:

Hagel - 26 gls, 75 pts, +11 Off, +3 Def, $9.4 mill Dom value, 1% HP D+3 star%
Kempe - 30 gls, 80 pts, +10 Off, +1 Def, $8.0 mill , 0%
Vilardi - 38 gls, 63 pts, +9 Off, -3 Def, $6.3 mll, 43%
Marchment - 22 gls, 54 pts, +4 Off, +2 Def, $5.8 mill, 0%
Bertuzzi - 21 gls, 43 pts, +5 Off, +0 Def, $5.6 mill, 0%
Crouse - 23 gls, 43 pts, +0 Off, +0 Def, $3.6 mill, 2%

Knies, 15 gls, 36 pts, -1 Off, +0 Off, $3.6 mill, 2%

Its all about what you think his upside is. If you sign the big deal (6 x$5-6 ish) you are betting him becoming a legit top line forward for there to be good value there. Otherwise the better value is on shorter term deals probably.
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Shorter bridge deal is fine but what if he explodes this year ?

That 5ish now goes to 7ish if you want term, lock him up now
 
MindzEye said:
A lot of those are 2nd contracts.

I disagree that he's worth it now, and I'm not convinced that he's ever going to be worth enough surplus value to recoup value on the back end of the contract. We're talking about him being worth ~3.5 million now, I don't see him being worth 8+ million on the back end to make the overpay now, worth it later.
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The Guhle contract is not an overpay and easily moveable for Knies
 
GEEMAN said:
The Guhle contract is not an overpay and easily moveable for Knies
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Guhle has been used as your #2 defender, Knies gets 3rd line minutes. Big difference. Also big difference in where the two teams are in cap compostion and competitiveness. The approach the Habs should take right now is not the same as the approach the Leafs should take.
 
GEEMAN said:
Shorter bridge deal is fine but what if he explodes this year ?
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Drag his dick over broken glass through the remaining years of his RFA status. Saving money on Knies when Auston Matthews is 31-32 yrs old simply doesn't matter right now and shouldn't be the focus of our roster building strategy.
 
based on what are you expecting him to explode? And what is your definition of explode - 30 goal scorer? ppg? I don't see either of those in the next 3 years, especially without PP time
 
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