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Freddie Andersen

Wayward DP

Wayward DP

Well-known member
We're now over halfway through the season, and almost two full years into the Freddie Andersen era.

The consensus on these boards seems to have been that he is about a league average goalie who will go on unsustainable hot streaks while also having some pretty miserable stretches of play, particularly to start the year.

I'm wondering if it is time to reconsider our evaluations (and I know Freddie still gets shit on for soft goals and some egregious puck handling errors).

All stats are from hockeyreference...

For comparison's sake, I'm matching Freddie up with Bob, Price, Rinne, Vasilevsky, Rask

GS (league rank)
1. Freddie - 43 (1)
2. Bob - 41 (2)
3. Vasilevsky - 40 (6)
4. Price - 36 (15)
5. Rinne - 35 (17)
6. Rask - 31 (24)

SV% (min 20 GP)
1. Vasilevsky .931 (2)
2. Rinne .927 (4)
3. Freddie .922 (6)
4. Rask .922 (9)
5. Bob .921 (10)
6. Price .905 (31)

SO
1. Vasilevsky - 7 (1)
2. Rinne - 4 (2)
2. Freddie - 4 (2)
2. Bob - 4 (2)
5. Rask - 2 (13)
6. Price - 1 (27)

SA
1. Freddie - 1448 (1)
2. Bob - 1286 (4)
3. Vasilevsky - 1272 (6)
4. Rinne - 1103 (16)
5. Price - 1099 (18)
6. Rask - 876 (26)

That's all the time I want to put into this analysis for now, but Freddie currently sits in the top-10 in most major goalie stats, on top of being a real workhorse. While I'm not going to argue he is elite, if he maintains this level of play throughout the season and moving forward, it may be time to discuss him being a top-10 starter.



Thoughts? I'm sure there are many...
 
Agreed. Freddie has been a legit top 10 goalie in his time here. There are maybe 5-6 goalies in the NHL that would represent a significant upgrade. In retrospect its was a great move to pick him up, and lock him in for average goalie money.
 
He's definitely above average.

This year so far, amongst the 29 goalies with 1500+ minutes played, he's 7th in both save percentage and save percentage differential (i.e. difference between actual save percentage and expected save percentage based on quality of chances). Over the last 2 years, of the 30 goals with 3500+ minutes, he's 9th in sv% and 4th in dsv%.

I'd call him a good workhorse Top-10 goalie.
 
zeke said:
He's definitely above average.

This year so far, amongst the 29 goalies with 1500+ minutes played, he's 7th in both save percentage and save percentage differential (i.e. difference between actual save percentage and expected save percentage based on quality of chances). Over the last 2 years, of the 30 goals with 3500+ minutes, he's 9th in sv% and 4th in dsv%.

I'd call him a good workhorse Top-10 goalie.
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Yeah but he's no Reimer
 
He might even post a higher save percentage than Reimer this year, for the first time in years!

that'll be an accomplishment for him.
 
Wayward DP said:
We're now over halfway through the season, and almost two full years into the Freddie Andersen era.

The consensus on these boards seems to have been that he is about a league average goalie who will go on unsustainable hot streaks while also having some pretty miserable stretches of play, particularly to start the year.
Click to expand...
If you go through his season month-by-month last year, this was definitely the case:

October: 2-2-3, 0.876 SV%
November: 8-4-0, 0.931 SV%
December: 5-2-3, 0.948 SV%
January: 6-3-2, 0.902 SV%
February: 3-4-4, 0.901 SV%
March: 7-2-2, 0.939 SV%
April: 5-2-3, 0.906 SV%

Pretty brutal to start the season, and after that he alternated between elite and solidly below average afterwards.

This year, he was brutal to start the season again, but since then he's been consistently elite:

October: 6-5-0, 0.896 SV%
November: 9-2-1, 0.938 SV%
December: 5-4-0, 0.924 SV%
January: 5-3-3, 0.928 SV%


Now, before I'd be ready to declare that his problems with inconsistency is over, and he's among the very best starting goalies in the game, I'd want to see him carry this level of play through the rest of the regular season and playoffs. But I don't think it's too early to say that he's been a strongly above average starting goalie over his time in Toronto so far, and that the trade to bring him here was a very good one.

Because as good as this team is, if they were saddled with mediocre-to-awful goaltending like the Burke/JFJ Leaf teams largely were, then there would have been no playoff appearance last year, and we'd probably be in a much tighter fight for a playoff spot this year. And we certainly wouldn't have any aspirations of doing damage once we get to the playoffs.

I think you can also definitively say that Lou knows goalies. With New Jersey, he drafted & developed Marty Brodeur, and then when he was just about finished, he stole Cory Schneider out of Vancouver. And now, after JFJ & Burke repeatedly failed to address our goaltending for over decade, he appears to have solved it almost immediately with Freddie.
 
Last year Freddie was hot and cold. But as a fan of Freddie, I can give him various excuses - new team, new system, new city, injury at the worlds, no training camp, injury again near the end of season.

I hope he finishes off this season with consistency and be strong in the playoff, but Freddie is pretty mcuh an established top 10 goalie in this league. I want to see how he does in the playoff (when healthy). He was fine in the playoff last season but he wasn't great, and Holtby was the better goalie in that series, even though HOltby himself wasn't great either.
 
Didn't realize he's been elite since November, pretty impressive.

Hopefully the Froskala posts are dead and gone.
 
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The suggestion that Andersen is average is laughable at this point. He has bailed out the team hugely this season and is most definitely a top 10 goalie.
 
I'm thrilled that he's played this well, but call me when he finishes the season this way. We saw this movie last year.

And just to clarify, I've never called him an average goalie, but an average starter. There's aren't 30 legitimate starting goalies in the league. He's been an above average starter this year (tied for 6th in SV%) but he's a bad game away from 12th (there's quite the log jam with 7 goalies between .919-.922)
 
No67 said:
The suggestion that Andersen is average is laughable at this point.
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No it's not.

If he finishes the year playing like he has since November, this will be the first season he's played like an above average goalie with a starter's workload.

Jonathan bernier also managed to do that for us one season, in very similar circumstances(shooting gallery)...and that didn't even mean he was a legit starter, let alone top 10 goalie, as it turned out.
 
He's been great after the ugly first month. Good that he didn't drop off in January. Maybe he's figured out the consistency thing. Time will tell.
 
Volcanologist said:
No it's not.

If he finishes the year playing like he has since November, this will be the first season he's played like an above average goalie with a starter's workload.

Jonathan bernier also managed to do that for us one season, in very similar circumstances(shooting gallery)...and that didn't even mean he was a legit starter, let alone top 10 goalie, as it turned out.
Click to expand...

Nah, he was a top 10 starter last year too. 9th in save% among goalies with 50+ starts. 10th in dSV, 4th in HDSV%, 8th in GSAA.
 
zeke said:
He's definitely above average.

This year so far, amongst the 29 goalies with 1500+ minutes played, he's 7th in both save percentage and save percentage differential (i.e. difference between actual save percentage and expected save percentage based on quality of chances). Over the last 2 years, of the 30 goals with 3500+ minutes, he's 9th in sv% and 4th in dsv%.

I'd call him a good workhorse Top-10 goalie.
Click to expand...

So he's better than you predicted he'd be is what you are saying. You were no fan of that trade and thought it was a big mistake.
I'm glad you are using stats to say he is good, because you used similar stats to say he wasn't very good previously.
 
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there were no stats to say he wasn't good previously. Just that he wasn't great, and not necessarily enough of an upgrade to justify the price.

as of now he's managed to slightly improve his numbers even while increasing to an elite workload, which is a nice development and is starting to make it look good. He's still not that much above average yet, though, even though he's managed to go his longest stretch without a slump that we've seen yet. Hopefully he can avoid many more of those awful slumps he has and really establish himself as a clearcut above average guy.
 
The price was similar to Martin Jones. Not sure what the big deal was. And he never was a back-up who faced poor teams. He was the Classic 1A/1B in Anaheim. His numbers were fine.
It was clearly the way to go that teams have been doing the past few years(Edmonton-Talbot, Jones, ETC), get a strong 1B or back-up that can be had for relatively cheap and you can sign for 4-5 million per rather than what the Habs have done.
The point I made that day of the trade was the cost and the numbers were fine, and I do believe reports that in February of 2016' Lou did indeed hide in the rafters to see Freddy practice at the ACC, and they spent months scouting him before pulling the trigger and had great faith in the work they put in.
I also liked the size and athleticism Freddy brought. The Leafs have been going with smaller goalies through their horrific run the past few years.
Overall, he was clearly the best choice as I thought then and now. Not sure what is the least bit disappointing about his stats this year given the workload, cost to acquire him, expectations or salary.
How this for stats-Freddy and big and moves well. Toskala was a midget. There. And my prediction/opinion was correct and has not waivered.
 
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He seems quite studious, quite serious, but you can see a glint in his eye, he probably likes having fun too. Like him.
 
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