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Gallagher signs 6-year @ $6.5M AAV

worm

Well-known member
It takes shots AND corsi, so shots generated counts heavily in the model.
Goals: 0.75
Primary Assists: 0.7
Secondary Assists: 0.55
Shots: 0.075
Blocks: 0.05
Penalty Differential: 0.15
Faceoff Differential: 0.01
5-on-5 Corsi Differential: 0.05
5-on-5 Goal Differential: 0.15
 

Habsy

Wrong Thinker Extraordinaire
So here are some of the outtakes, the scenes that wound up on the cutting room floor that still tell the same story about Gallagher. The story of a smaller kid who no one believed would ever make it. The story of a kid who took all that doubt and turned it into jet fuel. The story of why Brendan Gallagher is an NHL star today, and why if anyone will remain effective until the age of 35 almost out of spite, it will be him.

Because there are people out there who believe he can’t.

Brendan Gallagher is built to make the Canadiens’ commitment to him worthwhile
 

worm

Well-known member
I know, that's the article I read. 10 shots = 1 goal.

I'm not clear on the unit of measure of Corsi differential, is it percent or tenth of percent, or...
10 shots = 1 goal seems right for gallagher as he has a 9.9 shooting percentage in his career

so no issue with that from me at all
 

worm

Well-known member
I know, that's the article I read. 10 shots = 1 goal.

I'm not clear on the unit of measure of Corsi differential, is it percent or tenth of percent, or...
you made it seem like shots were some massive thing screwing up the model

not the case at all
 

worm

Well-known member
my gripe with the model is that it includes blocked shots at all
and i would argue that secondary assists might be a bit too high

but the giant flaw is not that it shows procession drivers (corsi, shots) it is the lack of quality of comp and teammates so it probably undervalues gallagher a bit as he has no star on his line and he doesnt get easy zone starts or competition
 

CH1

The Artist Formerly Known as chiggins.
well Gallagher is first in everything but 5th in goals....our whole team is basically like that....way better at possession metrics than shooting the puck.
 

GrandWazoo

Well-known member
you made it seem like shots were some massive thing screwing up the model

not the case at all

I'm not a fan of using shots or Corsi as a indicator of offensive performance.

We're the team that shot the most in the league last year and second in Corsi diff. Must mean that we're an offensive powerhouse right? Of course not, we ended up 18th in offense and a negative goal differential.

Same with Gallagher, he was 14th in the league in shots, and 2nd in Corsi diff, but 114th in points and 109th in goal diff (don't blame me, it's in his model as well).

His model make it sounds like Gallagher is an elite offensive player in the league. He's not. He's an elite shot generator however.
 

Habspatrol

Administrator
Staff member
I'm not a fan of using shots or Corsi as a indicator of offensive performance.

We're the team that shot the most in the league last year and second in Corsi diff. Must mean that we're an offensive powerhouse right? Of course not, we ended up 18th in offense and a negative goal differential.

Same with Gallagher, he was 14th in the league in shots, and 2nd in Corsi diff, but 114th in points and 109th in goal diff (don't blame me, it's in his model as well).

His model make it sounds like Gallagher is an elite offensive player in the league. He's not. He's an elite shot generator however.
Sounds like you're a fan of good ol goals and assists a way to judge a player's performance. That's cool... I think those are the most important stats.

I do like to look a little deeper too though.
 

GrandWazoo

Well-known member
Sounds like you're a fan of good ol goals and assists a way to judge a player's performance. That's cool... I think those are the most important stats.

I do like to look a little deeper too though.
I like to look at it holistically. Some writers over-index on analytics, I think that's one example. He's giving Gallagher a 100 in offensive contribution and a value of $10M. This is clearly a case where shots have been overvalued.

I've also seen players cheating and padding their shot stats since it became more valued to improve their perspective value.
 
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