GDT #1 - AUG 2 8pm SN - The Covid Cup is Ours

[Preston]

my bad....but still like that bet for Leafs...I will look for it online.

You can adjust for the leafs being slight favorites to push that number up a bit but it cant be too much.

 

[Habsy]

The biggest issue stats wise sure seems to be that their top unit dominated ours.

Head 2 head matchups for Matthews:

Dubois 9:26, 25.1xgf%
Bjorkstrand 11:28, 35.9xgf%
Texier 11:34, 35.1xgf%

Jones 11:07, 32.0xgf%
Werenski 10:51, 32.0xgf%

That just cannot happen, period. What's doubly discouraging there is that it looks like their main defense partner was muzz-holl. If the leafs continue to lose that matchup they're toast.


Meanwhile, Tavares took care of the secondary matchups very well:

Wennberg: 8:24, 61.9xgf%
Atkinson 8:37, 61.9xgf%
Foligno 8:04, 61.9xgf%

Savard 11:36, 59.8xgf%
Gavrikov 9:31, 64.4xgf%

Jenner 6:06, 60.4xgf%
Nyquist 4:54, 59.8xgf%
Foudy 5:16, 71.4xgf%

That line may not have passed the eye test but those numbers are so extremely good its tough to think they're completely mistaken.

Didn't the Leafs have last change? They should put Tavares out against Dubois

 

[CH1]

All I know is I'll be more pissed if the Leafs get Lafreniere than win the cup.

Oilers and Pens would be laughable also.

 

[Habsy]

Meh. Oilers need Drysdale far more than Lafreniere.

 

[zeke]

Question.

What happens if we get swept in this series and look similar to last night for all 3 games? Does anybody's opinion regarding shaking up the core of this team in some way change?

I mean we'll have a whole lotta time to discuss that if it happens. As it is, we have a game tommorrow to worry about.

 

[zeke]

Didn't the Leafs have last change? They should put Tavares out against Dubois

Tbh we shouldn't have to worry about line matching like that.

 

[Preston]

Funny game. If the Matthews shot that hit iron went an inch lower and if he scored on that slot shot we'd be licking each others balls right now. Instead, it's doomsday.

 

[CH1]

Funny game. If the Matthews shot that hit iron went an inch lower and if he scored on that slot shot we'd be licking each others balls right now. Instead, it's doomsday.

exactly, a 1-0 loss in game 1 should not lead to ball licking or fratricide

 

[Volcanologist]

One thing Keefe's system is doing is producing a lot of non-forward passes in the name of keeping possession. For example they do this now during line changes instead of dumping it in. On the whole this gives the Jackets all the more time to get set and park the bus. I realize we're not a strong board team, but we're going to have to start chipping it in and making their D work a bit more when the rush offence is being cut off.

 

[leafman101]

Question.

What happens if we get swept in this series and look similar to last night for all 3 games? Does anybody's opinion regarding shaking up the core of this team in some way change?

To achieve what end? I do not think shake it up to be less chokey is a helpful team building strategy.

 

[Volcanologist]

Funny game. If the Matthews shot that hit iron went an inch lower and if he scored on that slot shot we'd be licking each others balls right now. Instead, it's doomsday.

what about the posts the Jackets hit?

 

[Preston]

exactly, a 1-0 loss in game 1 should not lead to ball licking or fratricide

It's just funny how the narrative for individual games is always such an extreme when the complete opposite result could have just as easily happened with a couple bounces.

 

[zeke]

Funny game. If the Matthews shot that hit iron went an inch lower and if he scored on that slot shot we'd be licking each others balls right now. Instead, it's doomsday.

Mm, they still wouldn't have played well enough tho.

 

[Preston]

Mm, they still wouldn't have played well enough tho.

No but the "find a way to win" brigade would have been satisfied. Literally a coin flip game decided by a muffin goal. Too bad.

 

[CH1]

It's just funny how the narrative for individual games is always such an extreme when the complete opposite result could have just as easily happened with a couple bounces.

That's nothing... I remember the days when Canada would lose an International World Cup game in double OT and the government would start a multi year royal commission on "What's wrong with our game?" Then when we win by one goal, we are the supreme hockey nation that has no rivals.

 

[Preston]

Next step for nerds is to find a way to adjust xgf for shooting talent. A Mathews bad angle shot near the hash marks is a much better chance than a Hyman one. That rocket snapper off the bar likely had less than a 5% chance of going in based on xgf. But not for auston.

 

[WellPlayed]

That's nothing... I remember the days when Canada would lose an International World Cup game in double OT and the government would start a multi year royal commission on "What's wrong with our game?" Then when we win by one goal, we are the supreme hockey nation that has no rivals.

The only thing that was wrong with our game was the management selecting the rosters. Shayne Corson? Kris Draper? What the fuck were they thinking.

 

[zeke]

Next step for nerds is to find a way to adjust xgf for shooting talent. A Mathews bad angle shot near the hash marks is a much better chance than a Hyman one. That rocket snapper off the bar likely had less than a 5% chance of going in based on xgf. But not for auston.

I think many models include it.

 

[zeke]

The only thing that was wrong with our game was the management selecting the rosters. Shayne Corson? Kris Draper? What the **** were they thinking.

 

[Preston]

I think many models include it.

I don't think naturalstatrick does. Moneypuck might as it's a bit more complex. But I don't think it takes that into account either.