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GDT #20 FEB 22 v CGY - Lockdown Unlocked

MindzEye

Wayward Ditch Pig
I’m really hoping against hope that this isn’t the exact situation those of us who opposed the Tavares signing feared the most:

Failure to win any Cups at the front end of his contract, followed by a steep decline just as the young core are hitting their peaks.

And made even worse by a flat cap that none of us even saw coming when Tavares was signed.

I can live with last year's version being a little bit overpaid at 11m, but if he's already declining and this isn't just a slump brought on for whatever reason, this is going to be ugly. We need him to be last year's version for at least 2 more years after this one. I always thought that the last 2 years of his deal were going to be tough to swallow, but it being 5 years instead of two would be worse than even I argued possible at the time.
 

Wayward DP

Well-known member
I’m really hoping against hope that this isn’t the exact situation those of us who opposed the Tavares signing feared the most:

Failure to win any Cups at the front end of his contract, followed by a steep decline just as the young core are hitting their peaks.

And made even worse by a flat cap that none of us even saw coming when Tavares was signed.
honestly I was very anti-signing Tavares but after his first season here, figured we had a bit more of a honeymoon before his decline. but **** me, the early returns this year are fucking terrifying.
 

MindzEye

Wayward Ditch Pig
He didn’t just fall of a cliff at 30.

Everyone just relax and wait for him to start filling the net again soon.

This is where you were always wrong. We don't need him to "fall off of a cliff" for him to be an albatross. Going from fringe top 10 centre to fringe top 30 centre isn't a long drop, but would hurt us a lot. He's currently 50th among centres (minimum 200 minutes at 5v5) in P/60. He was around the same last season. Even if we argue that he's a good enough 2 way centre to leap frog a bunch of sheltered names in front of him in overall importance, it's a stretch to put last year's Tavares at 5v5 and this year's Tavares at 5v5 much higher than the 30th best centre in the league. Paying 11 million to a super elite 2nd line centre isn't what we were supposed to be signing up for. The idea was bringing him here to shelter and lead the kids, not to drag ass on the 2nd line during 5's and soak up PP points because the kids are awesome.

We need 1st year Tavares back, not 2nd year Tavares back. 2nd year Tavares wasn't worth 11 million either, he was just a lot closer to being worth 11 million than this version is.
 

Preston

The Artist Formerly Known as Goldust
I will say that my only glimmer of hope is that outside his PPG seasons on the Island, his play from October to December has consistently been pretty mediocre. He tends to pick it up in the back half of the season. For some reason I'm a lot less optimistic that this happens now that he's 30 and has two children screaming their balls off, destroying his body from playing with them, picking them up over and over and over again and waking him up endlessly at night. But it's my only glimmer of hope with him.

We know he isn't much of a captain of the hockey team but let's hope his balls drop and he becomes the captain of his household and picks up a nanny off waivers.
 

LeafOfFaith

Well-known member
By the way, first year Tavares played with Marner and those two were magic. He hasn’t really had the same chemistry with Willy for some reason. And Willy seems to play a stronger game with Matthews. I still, still don’t think they’ve got those pairs right, but BFF m&m may not ever allow a change.
 

leafman101

Well-known member
CH is buying calls on Tavares SH%.

Its always something with this market. Can't just enjoy the best start this team has had since the 40s. Someone good has to suck. Why not shit on the two elite forwards with the worst sh% on the team.
 

Preston

The Artist Formerly Known as Goldust
CH is buying calls on Tavares SH%.
Hey I am too! 10 EV points in 20 games was never gonna hold up. But two things can be true... He can be playing poorly for a guy that is paid like a superstar AND lack luck at evens.

(And no one said he sucks. Literally not a single person)
 

MindzEye

Wayward Ditch Pig
CH is buying calls on Tavares SH%.

Its always something with this market. Can't just enjoy the best start this team has had since the 40s. Someone good has to suck. Why not shit on the two elite forwards with the worst sh% on the team.

Because we haven't won anything yet. I'm happier that we're running laps around a trash division than I would be if we weren't, but this core has a legitimate shot of ending the cup drought. If we don't end the drought with this group, who knows when our next opportunity will be? Every year is important. The last time we had an "Auston Matthews" was 80 years ago. If we don't capitalize on having this one, how many of us here don't live to see a Cup in Toronto?
 

MindzEye

Wayward Ditch Pig
This isn't the stock market. There's only one winner per year here. You can be excellent for a long time and not win the whole thing. I want to be Chicago or Pittsburgh, Washington at worst case scenario. Ottawa or San Jose is a scary outcome to consider.
 

Preston

The Artist Formerly Known as Goldust
There isn't much to worry about with this team. This is a forum to discuss the team. We can only circle jerk so much.. We're simply expressing concern about their only questionable contract because the guy happens to be ageing and as MEs numbers showed, his play is clearly declining so far this season.

We're better than just relying on S% and calling it a day. That draglikepull guy is dumb anyway. I lost all respect for him for his Engvall takes. Really stupid person.
 

WellPlayed

Well-known member
I think most of the discussion here has been centered on his contract vs his value, other than the "Tavares looks toast" stuff getting posted during the game - but I'm always of the opinion that anything posted during the game is just part of the fun and emotion of watching the game, and shouldn't actually be taken all that seriously.

The eye-test tells me he looks sluggish. He's never been the best skater, but he was usually pretty great in traffic and winning puck battles. This year he's getting knocked off the puck constantly, trying to make stupid low-percentage dekes, can't make a pass. Like Preston said, he's a notoriously slow starter so he probably picks it up.
 
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