zeke
Well-known member
Bolts are a bit of a weird case this year.
On paper i loved all their transactions this offseason - Guentzel a massive upgrade over Stamkos at this point, McDonagh over Sergachev giving them a legit shutdown pair again and letting Hedman go back to all-offense duty, with Moser added to pick up most of the lost offense from sergy. Bigtime smart ballsy moves to shore up the team's biggest weakness by losing only their most expendable players. And in some ways it's worked out great - the bolts offense exploded with the additions, with them being the best offensive team in the league this year, but they're good defensively and Vasi seems back to being good again though not as great as he used to be still. They're top-3 in the league in goal differential, and the nerdies are all top-10. And with the bolts' elite talent, them having a high shooting percentage is probably expected so them beating the nerdies is not a big deal.
But for some reason I can't quite figure, these improvements and performance haven't actually translated so well into wins and losses. This looks like a team that should be right up near the top of the standings. There might be some bad luck going on there.
At the same time though, there was probably some good luck going on with their offensive explosion early on, where Kuch was at a 150pt pace, and all of Point Hagel Guentzel and even Cirelli well over ppg and mostly over a 100pt pace for the first few months there. That offensive explosition seems to have subsided a bit lately, with the small post-xmas sample seeing them all at more normal rates - kuch at around a 125pt pace, Point at 100ish, Hagel and guentsel in the 80-90 pace range and cirelli more of a 60pt type pace. That's more the kind of offense i'd expect from them going forward. But even if that's the case, they could counter that with some improved luck in turning goal diff into wins, so i think they're going to be good all the way through.
The leafs have handled the bolts easily in the first two meetings of the year, scoring 5 goals both times. So tonight vasi has decided to hide from the leafs and face the habs tomorrow instead, so we get Johansson, who isn't very good so we really should take advantage.
Seems like Patches might be conkied from the puck to the head last game. Minten is in for patches, and dewar comes in for reaves.
Unfortunately Myers had a rough one last time out, giving berube the excuse to bring Benoit back in, which i'm sure will not work out well.
but god bless leafs-obsessed Coop:
View: https://x.com/sunhornby/status/1881409036165538219?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1881409036165538219%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=
Interesting little tidbit as to why the Leafs are on top of the division and the bolts aren't......here's the Atlantic's record vs the Atlantic only:
1. TOR: 10-4-1 (115pt pace)
2. MTL: 8-4-0 (109pt pace)
3. OTT: 6-3-1 (107pt pace)
4. BOS: 8-5-2 (98pt pace)
5. FLA: 5-5-1 (82pt pace)
6. DET: 5-8-1 (60pt pace)
7. BUF: 4-7-1 (57pt pace)
8. TBL: 3-6-0 (55pt pace)
Lines:
On paper i loved all their transactions this offseason - Guentzel a massive upgrade over Stamkos at this point, McDonagh over Sergachev giving them a legit shutdown pair again and letting Hedman go back to all-offense duty, with Moser added to pick up most of the lost offense from sergy. Bigtime smart ballsy moves to shore up the team's biggest weakness by losing only their most expendable players. And in some ways it's worked out great - the bolts offense exploded with the additions, with them being the best offensive team in the league this year, but they're good defensively and Vasi seems back to being good again though not as great as he used to be still. They're top-3 in the league in goal differential, and the nerdies are all top-10. And with the bolts' elite talent, them having a high shooting percentage is probably expected so them beating the nerdies is not a big deal.
But for some reason I can't quite figure, these improvements and performance haven't actually translated so well into wins and losses. This looks like a team that should be right up near the top of the standings. There might be some bad luck going on there.
At the same time though, there was probably some good luck going on with their offensive explosion early on, where Kuch was at a 150pt pace, and all of Point Hagel Guentzel and even Cirelli well over ppg and mostly over a 100pt pace for the first few months there. That offensive explosition seems to have subsided a bit lately, with the small post-xmas sample seeing them all at more normal rates - kuch at around a 125pt pace, Point at 100ish, Hagel and guentsel in the 80-90 pace range and cirelli more of a 60pt type pace. That's more the kind of offense i'd expect from them going forward. But even if that's the case, they could counter that with some improved luck in turning goal diff into wins, so i think they're going to be good all the way through.
The leafs have handled the bolts easily in the first two meetings of the year, scoring 5 goals both times. So tonight vasi has decided to hide from the leafs and face the habs tomorrow instead, so we get Johansson, who isn't very good so we really should take advantage.
Seems like Patches might be conkied from the puck to the head last game. Minten is in for patches, and dewar comes in for reaves.
Unfortunately Myers had a rough one last time out, giving berube the excuse to bring Benoit back in, which i'm sure will not work out well.
but god bless leafs-obsessed Coop:
View: https://x.com/sunhornby/status/1881409036165538219?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1881409036165538219%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=
Interesting little tidbit as to why the Leafs are on top of the division and the bolts aren't......here's the Atlantic's record vs the Atlantic only:
1. TOR: 10-4-1 (115pt pace)
2. MTL: 8-4-0 (109pt pace)
3. OTT: 6-3-1 (107pt pace)
4. BOS: 8-5-2 (98pt pace)
5. FLA: 5-5-1 (82pt pace)
6. DET: 5-8-1 (60pt pace)
7. BUF: 4-7-1 (57pt pace)
8. TBL: 3-6-0 (55pt pace)
Lines:
