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GDT #51 MAY 1 HNIC - Therapist

MindzEye

Wayward Ditch Pig
Looks like most Jets fans on HFboards want us in the first round.

We're 6-3 against them in the regular season and 2 of those 3 wins were Freddy specials where we beat the brakes off of them and still managed to lose.

59.5% xgf

Like sure, Edmonton is 7-2 against them, but just over 54% xGF. Nobody has been better against them this season than we have.
 

soco22

Well-known member
The craziness thing about Matthews is that he’s doing all this without relying on the PP. imagine what his season would be if it didn’t turn to shit and he still produced at a normal clip on it on top of his even strength work.
 

MindzEye

Wayward Ditch Pig
The craziness thing about Matthews is that he’s doing all this without relying on the PP. imagine what his season would be if it didn’t turn to shit and he still produced at a normal clip on it on top of his even strength work.

Matthews is tied with Lemiuex for highest GPG in the NHL in like the last ~25 yrs. Imagine if we actually ran the PP around getting Matthews the puck instead of Marner?

Yeah, the guy is doing it pretty much entirely at 5v5.

Here's another Auston Matthews is pretty fucking good stat:

His worst goal 5v5 G/60 scoring year in the NHL so far was the 66th best goal scoring rate anyone has had since 09/10. His 2nd worst is 21st. Auston has 4 seasons of his career that are in the top 21 goal 5v5 scoring performances over the last decades. 1st, 9th, 19th, 21st, 66th.

The only other players with multiple G/60 performances in the top 25 since 09/10 are Ovechkin with 2 (8th and 12th)....and Jakub Vrana with 2 (15th and 22nd)

Yeah, if you can still trade for Vrana in your fantasy league, now is the time. Dude is probably going to score 40 in Detroit sooner rather than later.
 

zeke

Well-known member
Of All seasons NHL history, minimum 45 games played:

McDavid - #28 ppg season at 1.78
Matthews - #31 gpg season at 0.81

Both are the best in 25 years - in 95/96 Lemieux had .99gpg and 2.30ppg, and jagr had 1.82ppg.
 

MindzEye

Wayward Ditch Pig
And also, Auston's nerdies have gotten better as the season has gone on, Mcdavids have not.

5v5 primary scoring is near identical. I'm definitely back on the "Auston has been better" train
 

hockeylover

Well-known member
Now just imagine if the cock had played him and marner 20+ a game from early on like he should have.

I suppose it looks a tad worse because it includes his rookie year but... Babcock had an Auston Matthews for 235 games and played him under 18 minutes for 110 of them.

He also played him under 20 minutes in 13 out of our 20 playoff games.
 
Last edited:

Habspatrol

Administrator
Staff member
Of All seasons NHL history, minimum 45 games played:

McDavid - #28 ppg season at 1.78
Matthews - #31 gpg season at 0.81

Both are the best in 25 years - in 95/96 Lemieux had .99gpg and 2.30ppg, and jagr had 1.82ppg.
Damn... Mario was amazing. Considerably better than Matthews and McDavid combined.
 

MindzEye

Wayward Ditch Pig
Nerdies:

Matthews
CF: 54.6%
SF: 55.4%
GF: 63.7%
xG%: 60.7%
SC%: 61.1%
HD%: 65.8%
G/60: 1.89
P1/60: 2.80

P/60: 3.03
ixG/60: 1.14
iSCF/60: 13.6
iHDCF/60: 6.74
Takeaways: 2.8
Blocks: 2.65
Faceoffs: 52.1


McDavid
CF: 54.7%
SF: 54.7%
GF: 58.4%
xG%: 56.6%
SC%: 55.5%
HD%: 57.2%
G/60: 1.22
P1/60: 2.80
P/60: 3.31

ixG/60: .9
iSCF/60: 9.41
iHDCF/60: 4.46
Takeaways: 1.8
Blocks: 1.22
Faceoffs: 48.4%


At 5 on 5, this kind of isn't that close. They're identical in P1, but with Auston being a mile better at goal scoring (which as I've argued before, is by far the most important skill in hockey). For overall play driving, defensive play, etc, Matthews impact is way ahead.

On the PP, McDavid is a more productive than Matthews, but a large portion of the counting stat difference should be chalked up to McDavid getting 4:22 per game in PP time vs Auston's 3:10. Auston would have another 6 PP points this season (based on P/60 alone, not accounting for other factors like SH% regression likelihood with him out there more). McDavid does have a sizeable /60 scoring rate lead on the PP as well, as far ahead as Auston is at 5 on 5, McDavid is at least that far ahead on the PP, he's pretty otherwordly with the man advantage.

So which one you think is better really has to come down to which you value more: Assists (primary and secondary) and PP dominance vs goals & 5v5 play driving. Easy decision for me. When you're the Leafs, you can easily go 5-6 periods straight without a PP. That's a lot of 5v5 time that we need to score during and Matthews might be the best even strength goal scorer of the last 2 generations.
 

hockeylover

Well-known member
Elimination Games...

Game 6 vs Washington 17:51 (went to OT)
Game 7 vs Boston 18:06
Game 7 vs Boston 18:48

 

zeke

Well-known member
Our PP outage this year really sucks. I still think it's just a sample size blip but damn their point totals could be looking even more ridiculous if the pp was clicking.
 
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