Hope Beck becomes a reincarnation of Bergeron, Mesar / Krejci, Hutson / Fox / McAvoy, and/or they’ve somehow managed to snag a Marchand / Pastrnak in their picks
2003: Fleury, Staal, Horton
2004: Ovy, Malkin, Barker
2005: Crosby, Ryan, J.Johnson
2006: E.Johnson, J.Staal, Toews
2007: Kane, JVR, Turris
2008: Stamkos, Doughty, Bogosian
2009: Tavares, Hedman, Duchene
2010: Hall, Seguin, Gundbranson
2011: RNH, Landeskog, Huberdeau
2012: Yakupov, Murray, Galchenyuk
2013: MacKinnon, Barkov, Drouin
2014: Ekblad, Reinhart, Draisaitl
2015: McDavid, Eichel, D.Strome
2016: Matthews, Laine, PLD
2017: Hischier, Patrick, Heiskanen
2018: Dahlin, Svechnikov, KK
2019: Hughes, Kaako, Dach
IF “extremely successful” = 1st line / 1st pairing
Almost every draft from 2003-2019 (inclusive) has at least one player in top-3 who failed to meet that criteria (see bold), and I was generous in some cases (E.Johnson, J.Staal in 2006, JVR in 2007, Makar vs Hischier in 2017 etc.) - roughly 30-of-51 top-3 picks are slam dunks (again being generous) approx 59%
Out of those 17-drafts, 1OA is the undisputed best player in 10-of them (58% of the time)
NHL draft of 18-yr olds is pretty much a crapshoot…not talking 70%+ success rate