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Lineup your lineups: Playoff edition

LeafGm

Well-known member
So now that the deadline’s passed and the roster is set, I’m curious how people see all of our puzzle pieces fitting together.

Assuming a 100% healthy roster, this seems to be the combo I like the best:

Hyman - Matthews - Marner
Galchenyuk - Tavares - Nylander
Foligno - Nash - Mikheyev
Thornton - Kerfoot - Spezza

Rielly - Brodie
Muzzin - Holl
Dermott - Bogosian

Campbell
Rittich
 
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leafman101

Well-known member
Galchenyuk-Matthews-Marner
Hyman-Tavares-Willy
Foligno-Nash-Mikheyev
Kerfoot-Engvall-Spezza
(Robertson-Jumbo-Simmonds)

Rielly-Brodie
Muzzin-Holl
Dermott-Bogo
Hutton

Campbell
Andersen
Rittich
 

soco22

Well-known member
Honestly, depends on who we play. If it’s Edmonton I want Thornton in. However, vs the Habs would want Robertson.
 

LeafGm

Well-known member
Honestly, depends on who we play. If it’s Edmonton I want Thornton in. However, vs the Habs would want Robertson.


What I found hard to figure out when putting together the lineup was whether I wanted Foligno in the top-6 and Nash centering the fourth line, or if I wanted to put them together and create the uber-defensive line Keefe’s been trying for at various times all season.

But “depends on who we play” is probably the right answer here.

One thing I think I am increasingly sure of is that I want Hyman-Matthews-Marner together in the playoffs. Marchand-Bergeron-Pastrnak have showed us how deadly a real “super line” can be, and that combo is the best line I’ve seen on this team.

So long as we can still put together effective second & third lines behind those guys.
 

Wayward DP

Well-known member
I need to see how Foligno looks in our lineup before making any decisions on the lineup moving forward.

In theory though, I like the idea of a top-six of:
Galy-Matthews-Marner
Hyman-Tavares-Willy

And then line three likely has Foligno and Mikky as wingers. Unsure who the centre is, and who out of Spezza, Engvall, Simmonds, and Jumbo stay in the lineup (I assume Kerf is a lock).

D seems pretty set.
 

zeke

Well-known member
How about

Galchenyuk-Matthews-Marner
Mikheyev-Tavares-Hyman
Foligno-Kerfoot-Nylander
Robertson-Nash/Engvall-Spezza

I am kind of liking how Tavares looks with linemates more similar to what he was used to in NY.
 

zeke

Well-known member
P.s. for me Thornton and simmonds are break-glass-in-case-of-emergency options only.
 

hockeylover

Well-known member
How about

Galchenyuk-Matthews-Marner
Mikheyev-Tavares-Hyman
Foligno-Kerfoot-Nylander
Robertson-Nash/Engvall-Spezza

I am kind of liking how Tavares looks with linemates more similar to what he was used to in NY.

Honestly never really considered this but truthfully, I like it - each one is a threat to score.
 

Volcanologist

Well-known member
yeah, the older guys simply haven't played well enough for this calibre of team.

I'm confident Robertson can be more effective than either given the chance.

As for Foligno, I think we're better off using him and Nash plus Mikheyev or maybe Hyman as our main defensive unit. Use him to his strengths.
 

BeLeafer

Well-known member
Holding off until I see how the newbies, including Robertson, mix in and Jumbo performs with some rest.
 

MindzEye

Wayward Ditch Pig
AG-Matthews-Marner

- Matthews/Marner is a pretty obvious duo to stick together. AG just seems like a swiss army knife of sorts that works with Matthews-Marner. He skates just well enough to get in on the forecheck with Matthews, he's just big and strong enough to effectively win some board battles and work some low control plays with Matthews, he has enough skill and puck IQ to get the puck to danger areas (we've already seen a few cute blind passes around the net that have led to goals) for the other two to get things done with.

Hyman-Tavares-Willy

- I think this is just a matter of Matthews & Marner being so ridiculous that they don't need the extra help of Hyman (just a competent running mate), and Hyman absolutely makes this line better and makes it an above-average 1st line unto itself. These 3 together in limited ice (only 43 minutes total) have a 68% xGF, which is fucking ridiculous even in small sample.

Foligno-Engvall-Mikky

- This seems to make the most sense. Kerfoot's expected goals impact has been pretty bad as the 3C this year and his lack of size will hurt him even more when the whistles go away in the playoffs. I love his ability to transition the puck but I don't think we have wingers who work well with him at C. Engvall/Mikky have a 57% xGF together as a duo this season but have been a bit leaky defensively (2.31 GA/60 vs a team average of 2.03 when they're not on the ice). Foligno cleans up some of that and allows for a broader range of matchups that they can handle

Simmonds-Nash-Spezza

This is going to be hard to get a read on. Nash does very little to move the puck north, so my first instinct would be to put Kerfoot on his wing (who has pretty positive xg impacts on the wing this season, granted, most of that with Tavares as his C) for transition purposes, someone has to be able to move the fucking puck....but I think Spezza can carry that water too, so he wins because he's been so fucking good in this role all season. Simmonds, much to LoF's consternation, has a 56% XG (and 51% real goals for those who hate expected goals numbers) and is generally the type of mentalist that you let off the chain for 8-12 minutes a night in the playoffs to go be a fucking savage. Just keep him away from the fucking PP. Nash allows for the 2 wingers to get a bit deeper in on the net chasing scoring opportunities as well, Nash can be their defensive conscience.


PP1

Fucking Stack It

Nylander-Tavares
Matthews-Rielly-Marner

Just stack it. Stop dicking around trying to be fucking smarter than everyone. Stack it. Play it 90 seconds or more each opportunity you get.

PP2

Hyman-Mikky
AG-Brodie-Spezza

Brodie over Muzzin, Muzzin's lack of footspeed as the last guy back terrifies me. If Spezza can pull something out of his bag once or twice in the playoffs, I'd be ectastic. Similarly if Zach lumberjacks one in or AG snipes off of a cross ice Spezza feed, beautiful. They shouldn't see many opportunities though. We're paying all of that money for the superstars, give them superstar PP time.
 

zeke

Well-known member
A couple stats for reference:

5v5 TOI%

1. Matthews 34.79
2. Marner 33.25
3. Hyman 30.76
4. Tavares 29.34
5. Nylander 27.00
6. Foligno 26.75
7. Galchenyuk 24.83
8. Mikheyev 24 46
9. Kerfoot 23.98
10. Thornton 23 44
11 Nash 22.20
12. Engvall 22.00
13. Simmonds 19.60
14. Spezza 17.22


Zone usage (dzone start% - Ozone start%), the higher the tougher:

1. Nash +14.11
2. Mikheyev +6.33
3. Foligno +4.88
4. Hyman +2.84
5. Engvall +2.70
6. Simmonds +0.31
7. Marner -2.96
8. Tavares -3.98
9. Kerfoot -4.42
10. Matthews -4.79
11. Spezza -6.44
12. Galchenyuk -6.72
13. Nylander -7.79
14. Thornton -11.56

QoC (using PuckIQ - unfortunately these don't translate well between different teams)

1. Marner +24.2
2. Matthews +20.3
3. Hyman +17.9
4. Tavares +8.5
5. Galchenyuk +7.9
6. Mikheyev +7.3
7. Nylander +5.2
8. Foligno +3.4 (#3 on CBJ)
9. Kerfoot -0.5
10. Engvall -1.9
11. Thornton -6.3
12. Simmonds -8.4
13. Nash -12.1 (#11 on CBJ)
14. Spezza -27.2


XGF relative to team (the higher the better)

1. Galchenyuk +0.82
2. Hyman +0.42
3. Matthews +0.28
4. Tavares +0.20
5. Marner +0.12
6. Spezza +0.10
7. Nylander +0.09
8. Foligno -0.03
9. Thornton -0.14
10. Engvall -0.18
11. Mikheyev -0.19
12. Simmonds -0.31
13. Nash -0.32
14. Kerfoot -0.61


XGA relative to team (the lower the better):

1. Nash -0.33
2. Simmonds -0.30
3. Matthews -0.13
4. Hyman -0.13
5. Marner -0.08
6. Nylander -0.08
7. Engvall +0.01
8. Mikheyev +0.02
9. Foligno +0.05
10. Tavares +0.05
11. Galchenyuk +0.06
12. Kerfoot +0.14
13. Thornton +0.16
14. Spezza +0.32


Xgf% relative to team

1. Galchenyuk +7.7
2. Hyman +5.6
3. Matthews +4.1
4. Marner +2.0
5. Nylander +1.7
6. Tavares +1.6
7. Nash +0.1
8. Simmonds +0.0
9. Foligno -0.9
10. Engvall -1.9
11. Mikheyev -2.1
12. Spezza -2.2
13. Thornton -3.0
14. Kerfoot -7.5
 
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LeafOfFaith

Well-known member
AG-Matthews-Marner

- Matthews/Marner is a pretty obvious duo to stick together. AG just seems like a swiss army knife of sorts that works with Matthews-Marner. He skates just well enough to get in on the forecheck with Matthews, he's just big and strong enough to effectively win some board battles and work some low control plays with Matthews, he has enough skill and puck IQ to get the puck to danger areas (we've already seen a few cute blind passes around the net that have led to goals) for the other two to get things done with.

Hyman-Tavares-Willy

- I think this is just a matter of Matthews & Marner being so ridiculous that they don't need the extra help of Hyman (just a competent running mate), and Hyman absolutely makes this line better and makes it an above-average 1st line unto itself. These 3 together in limited ice (only 43 minutes total) have a 68% xGF, which is fucking ridiculous even in small sample.

Foligno-Engvall-Mikky

- This seems to make the most sense. Kerfoot's expected goals impact has been pretty bad as the 3C this year and his lack of size will hurt him even more when the whistles go away in the playoffs. I love his ability to transition the puck but I don't think we have wingers who work well with him at C. Engvall/Mikky have a 57% xGF together as a duo this season but have been a bit leaky defensively (2.31 GA/60 vs a team average of 2.03 when they're not on the ice). Foligno cleans up some of that and allows for a broader range of matchups that they can handle

Simmonds-Nash-Spezza

This is going to be hard to get a read on. Nash does very little to move the puck north, so my first instinct would be to put Kerfoot on his wing (who has pretty positive xg impacts on the wing this season, granted, most of that with Tavares as his C) for transition purposes, someone has to be able to move the fucking puck....but I think Spezza can carry that water too, so he wins because he's been so fucking good in this role all season. Simmonds, much to LoF's consternation, has a 56% XG (and 51% real goals for those who hate expected goals numbers) and is generally the type of mentalist that you let off the chain for 8-12 minutes a night in the playoffs to go be a fucking savage. Just keep him away from the fucking PP. Nash allows for the 2 wingers to get a bit deeper in on the net chasing scoring opportunities as well, Nash can be their defensive conscience.


PP1

Fucking Stack It

Nylander-Tavares
Matthews-Rielly-Marner

Just stack it. Stop dicking around trying to be fucking smarter than everyone. Stack it. Play it 90 seconds or more each opportunity you get.

PP2

Hyman-Mikky
AG-Brodie-Spezza

Brodie over Muzzin, Muzzin's lack of footspeed as the last guy back terrifies me. If Spezza can pull something out of his bag once or twice in the playoffs, I'd be ectastic. Similarly if Zach lumberjacks one in or AG snipes off of a cross ice Spezza feed, beautiful. They shouldn't see many opportunities though. We're paying all of that money for the superstars, give them superstar PP time.
You had me till Simmonds.

But good news, you forgot Kerfoot, so you can bump his ass out of the lineup now.
 
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