No Excuses No Limits! The mother fucking goddamn season thread

[zeke]

Knies - Matthews - Domi
McMann - Marner - Nylander
Pacioretty - Tavares - Robertson
Lorentz - Kampf - Jarnkrok
(Dewar - Holmberg - Reaves)
(Steeves - Minten - Grebenkin)


​

 

[LeafOfFaith]

Both Marner and Willy will always be wingers for me.

 

[leafman101]

Last Year

This year

They are playing much faster, and much more in the ozone.

But man, lots of muffins on this team. Can't have half a team that can't shoot/score.

 

[zeke]

that's bizarre that they're having much more ozone time but creating far less scoring opportunities.

 

[Wayward DP]

that's bizarre that they're having much more ozone time but creating far less scoring opportunities.

I think it's tactical, based on my admittedly limited eye test so far.

 

[leafman101]

They work the cycle more, and obviously being elite defensively also helps spend more time in the ozone. But they don't get the puck to the net.

I think they play pretty safe in the ozone. Less Dmen activating. More protecting against turnover and odd man rushes. Lots of point shots.

 

[LeafOfFaith]

It’s just 4-5 guys who’ve produced squat that bring the rest down.

 

[zeke]

Does the NHL edge data have detailed shot distance/percentage numbers?

 

[leafman101]

Yes, but its just shots, not attempts.

And it says they are 87th percentile in high danger chances, 90th in mid and <50th in low.

Last year it was 96th high, 76th mid and <50th low.

 

[MindzEye]

It’s just 4-5 guys who’ve produced squat that bring the rest down.

Most of the forwards are down according to xGF compared to last year though, which is what the chart is using. McMann, Robbie, Domi, Pontus, the 4th line brigade, all down significantly.

 

[zeke]

yeah the only forwards who aren't down significantly are the big 3. of course most are also down in xga too.

 

[leafman101]

By the eye test Berube just lets Willy/Mitch do what they do so that makes sense.

 

[zeke]

Let's use Tavares as a test case because I think we all agree he's playing well so the differences should be more systems-releated.


Tavares Last year --> This year ---> Difference

xGF/60: 3.28 ---> 2.65 ---> -0.63
GF/60: 2.73 ---> 3.41 ----> +0.68
OISH%: 8.2% --> 11.1% --> +2.9%

xGA/60: 2.58 ---> 2.01 ----> -0.59
GA/60: 2.21 ----> 1.41 ----> -0.80
SV%: 92.8% ----> 94.6% --> +1.8%

xGF%: 55.9% ---> 56.9% --> +1.0%
GF%: 55.3% ----> 70.7% --> +15.4%
PDO: 101.0 -----> 105.7 --> +4.7


in this small sample i only really care about the expected numbers. Maybe there has been an uptick in super-high-quality scoring chances that the expected numbers are missing, or maybe it's just a shooting percentage fluctuation. but the expected numbers are interesting regardless.

Tavares is putting up pretty much the exact same ratios in very similar usage as last year, but down significantly and equally in both chances for and chances against.

 

[LeafOfFaith]

I didn’t even realize till now that that win put us in first place.

 

[zeke]

it didn't tho.

but i digress.

 

[SundinsTooth]

You can't help yourself, can you. Love it.

 

[zeke]

5v5 With Matthews (13gms) ---> Without Matthews (7gms)

xGF/60: 2.74 (#9) ---> 1.92 (#30)
GF/60: 3.05 (#9) ----> 1.20 (#31)
Oish%: 9.61 (#14) --> 5.58 (#28)

xGA/60: 2.47 (#10) -> 2.01 (#5)
GA/60: 2.00 (#7) ---> 1.27 (#2)
SV%: 92.94 (#7) ----> 95.48 (#2)

xGF%: 52.60 (#10) --> 48.86 (#19)
GF%: 60.39 (#5) ----> 48.53 (#20)


5v4 PP

xGF/60: 8.65 (#11) --> 11.19 (#3)
GF/60: 3.38 (#29) ---> 15.42 (#2)
Oish%: 6.23 (#31) ---> 24.96 (#3)


4v5 PK

xGA/60: 6.43 (#5) ---> 7.05 (#10)
GA/60: 6.42 (#15) ---> 5.29 (#13)
SV%: 83.96 (#21) ---> 90.93 (#7)



a pretty wild difference. I don't even really quite understand how that can happen.

The 5v5 defense has improved no doubt, but not nearly as much as the offense has cratered, and the defense is also bolstered by a healthy Woll added to the goaltending mix. That's helping with the PK too.

But the cratered 5v5 offense is being offset by a legitimate massive improvement on the PP.

it'll be really interesting to see what happens when he's back.

 

[zeke]

5v5 First 13gms ---> Last 7gms

Marner: 3.59xgf60 / 3.02gf60 / 8.47oish% ---> 1.72xgf60 / 1.74gf60 / 8.49oish%
Nylander: 3.14xgf60 / 4.97gf60 / 14.34oish% -> 2.62xgf60 / 1.07gf60 / 3.49oish%
Tavares: 3.05xgf/60 / 4.58gf60 / 14.27oish% -> 2.06xgf60 / 1.71gf60 / 5.96oish%
Knies: 3.89xgf/60 / 3.79gf60 / 9.75oish% ----> 1.78xgf60 / 1.86gf60 / 11.05oish%
McMann: 1.76xgf60 / 3.72gf60 / 13.04oish% -> 2.20xgf60 / 2.42gf60 / 9.13oish%

wild.

 

[MindzEye]

"Marner looks great without Matthews, pay him"

 

[zeke]

Marner: 2.44xga60 / 2.38ga60 / 91.95sv% ---> 1.60xga60 / 1.21ga60 / 95.74sv%
Nylander: 2.77xga60 / 1.72ga60 / 94.10sv% -> 2.08xga60 / 2.80ga60 / 90.64sv%
Tavares: 2.34xga60 / 1.56ga60 / 94.37sv% ---> 1.52xga60 / 1.19ga60 / 94.93sv%
Knies: 3.17xga60 / 2.85ga60 / 91.61sv% -----> 2.37xga60 / 2.61ga60 / 92.19sv%
McMann: 2.66xga60 / 1.59ga60 / 94.03sv% -> 1.71xga60 / 1.94ga60 / 91.38sv%