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OT: American Politics

Preston said:
She'd crush him like Biden crushed him in the 2020 debates. She's sharp and unlike Biden, alive and trump is an easy opponent of you are both of those things. I didn't say she'd crush him on election day. I don't know what would happen. As you say, it's risky to switch if you think Biden is ahead right now.
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Holy crap, she’s terrible and would get massacred.
 
CH1 said:
but a lot of political experts are going around the country scoping out said feelings and finding the situation to be less than ideal for the Dems
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I mean this coin has two sides. lots of experts are going around and talking about all the massive grassroots support Biden enjoys.
 
leafman101 said:
for now. His numbers are worse than Trump and tanking though, with little upside other than "look how bad Trump is", but thats the same argument for any D candidate.
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the thing I don't think a lot of folks appreciate is that any D that replaces Joe is likely to take a massive hit once folks start really hammering in and focusing on their records. that's all baked into Joe's numbers since he's a known quantity. no other candidate is as well known to the voters, and there's a huge risk that their support tanks once voters get to know them better. this is what has happened to so so many promising presidential candidates over a long period of time and the cause for a lot of my concern on this
 
Wayward DP said:
I think the benefits of incumbency outweigh the disadvantages of Joe being old.

I also think the chaos of a race to replace him would sabotage any potential replacement such that's they'd be starting a lap or two behind the field (i.e. Trump).

and I also don't think Democrat (and non-fascist) voters are going to coalesce around any single potential candidate more than old man Joe, despite his decline.
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This
Sleepy Joe just had the best 4 years of any president in my life. If he had a bad term or even a meh term it would make sense to change it up.
 
CH1 said:
People talk about this incumbency advantage like it’s being up 2-0 with 5 mins left in the third period.

I agree those are great odds!!

But what happens when the other side scores two quick goals and your injured keeper can only lift one of his legs off the ground.

I don’t have all the data but it’s fair to say that the odds have shifted.
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I don't know that I agree with this framing.

I don't think the benefits of incumbency have somehow become lesser, or less important.

there's just a new factor in the equation, Joe's competency. which the fascists have tried to make into a thing for four years, and never really got much traction, until Joe fell on his face in the debate.
 
LeafGm said:
Yep. Not enough runway left at this point for all the various candidates to make their legitimate case for the job, and then for everyone to coalesce around that person.

I guess the counter-point to that is what just happened in France in a very tight time window in order to beat the fascists. But I don’t have any confidence in that kind of thing being pulled off in the US.
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the situation in France is also factually distinct in so many ways. dunno how much we can take from that...
 
Preston said:
No. The answer is no.
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I don't agree that this ship has fully sailed yet. May just be hopeless optimism, but I'm not fully there.

in fairness, it's not just a Joe problem - it's a problem that has plagued his entire administration for the past four years.

but yeah, if Joe cannot help remedy it, it's concerning, no doubt
 
Wayward DP said:
he's already campaigning more than the other guy. while also being President.
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Is he really being President now? They were saying as part of that Biden needs pictures in his reports story yesterday that he basically is only functional between 10 am and 4 pm. After that, Sleepy Joe takes over. President isn’t a part time job.
 
Wayward DP said:
I don't agree that this ship has fully sailed yet. May just be hopeless optimism, but I'm not fully there.

in fairness, it's not just a Joe problem - it's a problem that has plagued his entire administration for the past four years.

but yeah, if Joe cannot help remedy it, it's concerning, no doubt
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The problem is we're talking like this is Auston Matthews having a shit game 6 and heading into game 7 thinking he can bounce back. This is a man that is aging and deteriorating in front of our eyes. He's not gonna suddenly increase his coherency or cognition.
 
LeafOfFaith said:
Is he really being President now? They were saying as part of that Biden needs pictures in his reports story yesterday that he basically is only functional between 10 am and 4 pm. After that, Sleepy Joe takes over. President isn’t a part time job.
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have you seen the stories about how things like tweets and press statements get delayed because Joe insists upon reviewing and approving them all individually?

I won't purport to know what goes on behind the scenes but the man has a record, both predating his time a President, and now nearly four years of the Presidency. and that record is sterling. best President of my lifetime in terms of policy accomplishments, which is saying something given who he's had to work with in Congress.

so based on the available evidence I think he's killing it as President.

now, in terms of campaigning to be the next President? he's doing a much poorer job of that, currently.
 
Preston said:
The problem is we're talking like this is Auston Matthews having a shit game 6 and heading into game 7 thinking he can bounce back. This is a man that is aging and deteriorating in front of our eyes. He's not gonna suddenly increase his coherency or cognition.
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other than the debate, what do you base this conclusion on?
 
like, old people having bad mental days is a legit thing.

hell, it's a thing for young people too, although not likely to the same extent.
 
LeafOfFaith said:
Is he really being President now? They were saying as part of that Biden needs pictures in his reports story yesterday that he basically is only functional between 10 am and 4 pm. After that, Sleepy Joe takes over. President isn’t a part time job.
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The most important trait of being a leader in any area and that includes president is to surround yourself with specialists who are smarter than you on any singular topic and defer to them in your key decisions. I think Joe has done that and will continue to do that!
 
Wayward DP said:
have you seen the stories about how things like tweets and press statements get delayed because Joe insists upon reviewing and approving them all individually?

I won't purport to know what goes on behind the scenes but the man has a record, both predating his time a President, and now nearly four years of the Presidency. and that record is sterling. best President of my lifetime in terms of policy accomplishments, which is saying something given who he's had to work with in Congress.

so based on the available evidence I think he's killing it as President.

now, in terms of campaigning to be the next President? he's doing a much poorer job of that, currently.
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He may have been killing it as president, but now he’s dying it as president.
 
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