• Moderators, please send me a PM if you are unable to access mod permissions. Thanks, Habsy.

OT: American Politics

Trump will declare victory on election night, no matter what the results are, and he'll let the lawyers and courts fight it out - with all the important courts and lawyers on his side.
Yeah I'm good with that fear. In a fair election I would have zero hesitation to almost guarantee victory. But remember, Trump is a loser. He has been unsuccessful in just about everything he has done in his entire life. I don't think him getting his ass destroyed will be challengeable remotely no matter who is on his side. He will continue his tradition of being a loser and fade away into hopefully a very painful, lonely death.
 
Yeah I'm good with that fear. In a fair election I would have zero hesitation to almost guarantee victory. But remember, Trump is a loser. He has been unsuccessful in just about everything he has done in his entire life. I don't think him getting his ass destroyed will be challengeable remotely no matter who is on his side. He will continue his tradition of being a loser and fade away into hopefully a very painful, lonely death.
he is a loser but he also operates independently of any facts. he invents his own reality, and he will do so from the office of the president of the US, which gives him a lot of tools and levers to make his reality come to fruition.
 
A guy that managed to bullshit his way to billions and the WH isn’t a loser. He’s merely unscrupulous, unethical, amoral and several other adjectives that I’m too lazy to post.
 
Debates historically don't shift the odds much. They're just noise. The new anti Trump crowd that wasn't as present in 2016 won't change their minds. And the odds factor in everything, including the possibility for debates and whatnot and time before the election, but the thing is the closer we get to election time, the less time there is for people to change their minds. If it was this lopsided the day before the election the odds likely show a 90% chance of a Biden win. TLDR: People are already decided .

trump exists so throw out what you know

biden is senile so....
 
trump exists so throw out what you know

biden is senile so....
Trump is garbage in debates and having a stuttering problem doesn't mean senile. I don't love Biden as a president but he's the perfect candidate to beat Trump. Old people love him, white people like him, black people like him, young woke people who may not like him despise Trump, and he's not a woman. Nothing will change people's minds when they watch Trump bully him in the debates. I don't buy the "this time it will be different and the polls will reverse with the debates!" argument. Relying on "this time it will be different" doesn't often work out in any part of lfie.
 
That's so out of character for him to announce a deal to make himself look good, but have it turn out that the deal does nothing other than enrich him or his wealthiest supporters.

But I'm the bad guy for being ridiculously skeptical about trump brokered middle east deals

We all know if Trump actually "solved" the middle east, it would in reality only be renaming the West Bank to the Trump West Hotel, Casino, and Bank
 
Trump is garbage in debates and having a stuttering problem doesn't mean senile. I don't love Biden as a president but he's the perfect candidate to beat Trump. Old people love him, white people like him, black people like him, young woke people who may not like him despise Trump, and he's not a woman. Nothing will change people's minds when they watch Trump bully him in the debates. I don't buy the "this time it will be different and the polls will reverse with the debates!" argument. Relying on "this time it will be different" doesn't often work out in any part of lfie.
your mistake is assessing Trump through any rational or objective lens.

I don't think logic or reason apply to anything he is involved with.
 
except 2016 taught us that you cannot evaluate these scenarios with only logic and reason. he may be a dummy, but up to or over 40% of the population gets played by said dummy.
Well there are a thousand reasons why Hillary didn't win. Sexism, she was unlikable, blacks didn't vote, undecided people voted Trump or didn't vote at all, old people hated her, etc. Basically every demographic that she struggled with, Biden is a rockstar on. So on election day I believe the polling models at Hillary at a 60% chance of winning.. Maybe 70? Either way, neither number = 0%. Just because it's 70+% again it doesn't mean it's LESS likely that Trump loses. It's still 70+%. Not to mention, there were issues with the polling models in 2016 that have been fixed that should make them lean significantly more in Trump's favor.. But it is still arguably even more lopsided than 4 years ago.

I stand by basic statistics and probabilities. Trumps is more likely to lose than not. Human emotions/anxiety is getting in the way of this basic fact.
 
So many similar assumptions and mistakes are being mentioned. Deja Vu. Granted he's now a known commodity and that seems to be what people are banking on however there is a huge swath of this country that doesn't even follow politics.

The Debates can only help Trump at this point which is why the Dems are dead set against it. As I mentioned, it's Biden's to lose, not Trumps.
 
I mean it's basic statistics and probabilities. Just because a once in a lifetime event happened 4 years ago it doesn't make it more likely to happen again. And no, it doesn't make it impossible that it doesn't happen again either. I never said that. If he has an 80% chance of winning on election day, he has an 80% chance of winning. It doesn't drop to 40% because of 2016 or some shit.
 
I mean it's basic statistics and probabilities. Just because a once in a lifetime event happened 4 years ago it doesn't make it more likely to happen again. And no, it doesn't make it impossible that it doesn't happen again either. I never said that. If he has an 80% chance of winning on election day, he has an 80% chance of winning. It doesn't drop to 40% because of 2016 or some shit.

Statistics are based on variables both independent and dependent. Running a regression on 2016 variables is not the same as running one for 2020. As the variables change, so do the probabilities. In this instance those variables are working against Trump.
 

Now this is interesting. Trump's wish which is essentially the nationalization of Tik Tok is pretty much what China has been doing and wants to expand doing and yeah, he just gave them legitimacy in doing so by this act.
 
Now this is interesting. Trump's wish which is essentially the nationalization of Tik Tok is pretty much what China has been doing and wants to expand doing and yeah, he just gave them legitimacy in doing so by this act.
He only makes the "best" deals... Hello Chinese Facebook and Google front ends that are completely answerable to the Chinese government..
 
Don’t kid yourself, they’re already answerable to China (in China). This is just going to make it that much worse and Trump doesn’t care, he isn’t thinking globally and is even campaigning on not thinking globally.

You can worry about the little hole in your roof all you want until a tree falls on your house. Only then do you see.

(Ok doesn’t translate as well as i thought it would).
 
Last edited:
Don’t kid yourself, they’re already answerable to China (in China). This is just going to make out that much worse and Trump doesn’t care, he isn’t thinking globally and is even campaigning on not thinking globally.

You can worry about the little hole in your roof all you want until a tree falls on your house. Only then do you see.

(Ok doesn’t translate as well as i thought it would).
Google and Facebook don't operate in China, so I'm not sure what you mean about them being answerable. Their unwillingness to share data with the Chinese government is the main reason they're banned. That would of course change if they decided to partner with a local entity.
 
Back
Top