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OT: American Politics

lecoqsportif

Well-known member
And I'm still pretty convinced that the polls are under weighting women voters. They just don't have a good way of accurately showing that growth in increased voting we're going to see from a demo that doesn't typically vote a ton, 20-35 yr old women.

It’s possible today’s result jumped because new polls, with more young women, replace older polls. But that doesn’t mean the weights are right, it’s just that they shifted. Apparently pollsters were recalibrating in late August.

Or I could be full of it, and it’s a shift among voters with same weights. Most likely I think, a combo of both.

But that’s a helluva jump for 538.
 

MindzEye

Wayward Ditch Pig
It’s possible today’s result jumped because new polls, with more young women, replace older polls. But that doesn’t mean the weights are right, it’s just that they shifted. Apparently pollsters were recalibrating in late August.

Or I could be full of it, and it’s a shift among voters with same weights. Most likely I think, a combo of both.

But that’s a helluva jump for 538.

I think what we're likely seeing now is, as you mentioned, old polls falling out of the aggregate weightings entirely. Dems were struggling in the polls a few months back but have seen steady and fairly spectacular gains over the last ~ 2 months. Aggregate polling, by design, is meant to smooth out those peaks and troughs.
 
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