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OT: Coronavirus Resources - and other things to not worry about

UWHabs

Well-known member
This shit makes me so angry. This didn’t have to happen, Kenney was warned.

What's crazier was that up until about 5 weeks ago, Alberta was ready to lift all restrictions and rules whatsoever. Like, the warnings back in June/July was one thing, but it's like someone who sees a check engine light on their car, ignores it. Then keeps driving, and a little later they start hearing some clunking. Keep ignoring it, and then a rattle starts. On their next trip, the engine overheats on them so they finally take some notice, but just let it idle for a few minutes and continue driving. And now it's like they act shocked that the engine is actually going up in flames. There was no warning! We were caught off-guard!
 

lecoqsportif

Well-known member
Well, he certainly emphasized the distinction from other politicians - he’s got his unique “brand” thanks to this wedge. But… maybe not the brand he wanted or expected.

1632311159645.jpeg
 

Preston

AKA: Preston Fauci. Prestauci.
Incredibly impressed with how well our case load is holding up in Ontario. R0 sticking around 1. We're a bad week or 2 away from things going haywire and with each passing day our immunity is waning. Still in a good spot with decent protection with most of us being fully vaxxed 2-3 months ago; fresh immunity is the best kind of immunity as Israel found out. And Canada is in a unique spot where we basically ALL got fully vaxxed in a 1-2 month timeframe.. Most countries staggered it out to 6+ months due to supply constraints + we did a 2nd dose blitz from extending intervals, so we get more of a population effect for the time being with ALMOST everyone having fresh immunity.

BUT our x-factor? We can get another large segment of the population vaxxed (first dose) by mid-November if approval is a clean swift process for 5-11s, which feels fairly likely. That will no doubt be a big boost heading into the new year.

We currently have around 70% of the entire population fully vaxxed.. By the new year we could approach 80%, with 5-12s (who have potential to be large spreaders) having fresh immunity. And there's gonna be another decently large segment of folks who are unvaxxed but infected so really we may be looking at around 85-90% of folks either vaxxed or infected by the new year. If we're not doing boosters heading into the winter I still do fear a fairly large wave.. At the very least I think it would be wise to boost the 60+ers 5-6 months after dose #2 as most nations are doing. That would take us to around December/January for much of the population. So even if we do get a wave our hospitals will be in a good spot to withstand it with our vulnerable freshly boosted.
 
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UWHabs

Well-known member
Incredibly impressed with how well our case load is holding up in Ontario. R0 sticking around 1. We're a bad week or 2 away from things going haywire and with each passing day our immunity is waning. Still in a good spot with decent protection with most of us being fully vaxxed 2-3 months ago; fresh immunity is the best kind of immunity as Israel found out. And Canada is in a unique spot where we basically ALL got fully vaxxed in a 1-2 month timeframe.. Most countries staggered it out to 6+ months due to supply constraints + we did a 2nd dose blitz due to extending intervals, so we get more of a population effect for the time being.

BUT our x-factor? We can get another large segment of the population vaxxed (first dose) by mid-November if approval is a clean swift process for 5-12s, which feels fairly likely. That will no doubt be a big boost heading into the new year.

We currently have around 70% of the entire population fully vaxxed.. By the new year we could approach 80%, with 5-12s (who have potential to be large spreaders) having fresh immunity. And there's gonna be another decently large segment of folks who are unvaxxed but infected so really we may be looking at around 85-90% of folks either vaxxed or infected by the new year. If we're not doing boosters heading into the winter I still do fear a fairly large wave.. At the very least I think it would be wise to boost the 60+ers 5-6 months after dose #2 as most nations are doing. That would take us to around December/January for much of the population. So even if we do get a wave our hospitals will be in a good spot to withstand it with our vulnerable freshly boosted.

Most of the elderly would have gotten their first dose by the March/April timeframe, so if you do boosters at 6-9 months, that's basically anytime now. Realistically, if you can start an optional booster program in, say, November, you can probably get through anyone who wants it by Christmas at least.
 

Preston

AKA: Preston Fauci. Prestauci.
Most of the elderly would have gotten their first dose by the March/April timeframe, so if you do boosters at 6-9 months, that's basically anytime now. Realistically, if you can start an optional booster program in, say, November, you can probably get through anyone who wants it by Christmas at least.
Other nations are boosting based on when they got their 2nd dose. Israel is doing everyone 6 months post dose #2. US is likely doing 65+ 6 or 7(?) months post dose #2, UK is doing 50+ 6 months post dose #2.

So if we do 6 months I believe most 60+ers got their 2nd dose by June so we're looking at December. Kinda perfect timing for seasonality purposes.
 

Wayward DP

Well-known member
NS' exposure notice list is rapidly expanding. Includes restos, flights, etc. and now the biggest high school on the peninsula.

NB also reintroduced a bunch of restrictions, including pre-clearance for anyone coming from out of province. they may be on the brink of fucking their healthcare system...
 

WeHaveMoreCupsThanYou

Well-known member
NS' exposure notice list is rapidly expanding. Includes restos, flights, etc. and now the biggest high school on the peninsula.

NB also reintroduced a bunch of restrictions, including pre-clearance for anyone coming from out of province. they may be on the brink of fucking their healthcare system...
All it seems to take is to elect a conservative government and within a month your province starts going down the shitter.
 

Habsy

Yes, I'm kidding people.
Staff member
The way they're dealing with this is driving me nuts. Just got a call that my kid is displaying covid symptoms and had to be picked up.

Remote fucking learning worked assholes.
 

mbow30

Well-known member
Incredibly impressed with how well our case load is holding up in Ontario. R0 sticking around 1. We're a bad week or 2 away from things going haywire and with each passing day our immunity is waning. Still in a good spot with decent protection with most of us being fully vaxxed 2-3 months ago; fresh immunity is the best kind of immunity as Israel found out. And Canada is in a unique spot where we basically ALL got fully vaxxed in a 1-2 month timeframe.. Most countries staggered it out to 6+ months due to supply constraints + we did a 2nd dose blitz from extending intervals, so we get more of a population effect for the time being with ALMOST everyone having fresh immunity.

BUT our x-factor? We can get another large segment of the population vaxxed (first dose) by mid-November if approval is a clean swift process for 5-11s, which feels fairly likely. That will no doubt be a big boost heading into the new year.

We currently have around 70% of the entire population fully vaxxed.. By the new year we could approach 80%, with 5-12s (who have potential to be large spreaders) having fresh immunity. And there's gonna be another decently large segment of folks who are unvaxxed but infected so really we may be looking at around 85-90% of folks either vaxxed or infected by the new year. If we're not doing boosters heading into the winter I still do fear a fairly large wave.. At the very least I think it would be wise to boost the 60+ers 5-6 months after dose #2 as most nations are doing. That would take us to around December/January for much of the population. So even if we do get a wave our hospitals will be in a good spot to withstand it with our vulnerable freshly boosted.
The peaks and valleys of the disease (all variants) have been fascinating.

look at India, NYC, Milan, etc.

I wonder if our potential peak with the delta variant just happened to coincide with shot 2 timelines, which allowed us to keep things in check.
 

SundinsTooth

Leafs Moderator
I just wanted to post the Sep 1, 2021 forecast for Ontario. I have not been super focused on this stuff, but I'm wondering how the numbers are being interpreted against these forecasts. Since it looks like we are likely on the green line, did we actually see that Ontario with a decrease in contacts or is this a VAX effect above and beyond those incorporated in their model? Ontario had just under 500 cases today, I believe.

These forecasts seem to be a bit of a mess, to be honest. Does anyone follow these modelers with any regularity and can maybe point me to any follow up refinements? Explanations?



1632323655255.png
 

Preston

AKA: Preston Fauci. Prestauci.
I just wanted to post the Sep 1, 2021 forecast for Ontario. I have not been super focused on this stuff, but I'm wondering how the numbers are being interpreted against these forecasts. Since it looks like we are likely on the green line, did we actually see that Ontario with a decrease in contacts or is this a VAX effect above and beyond those incorporated in their model? Ontario had just under 500 cases today, I believe.

These forecasts seem to be a bit of a mess, to be honest. Does anyone follow these modelers with any regularity and can maybe point me to any follow up refinements? Explanations?



View attachment 10094
The models have been scarily spot on throughout the entire pandemic. Like.. Almost perfect. Every single time.

But in a time where we vaccinated ~70% of the entire province all at once it becomes a bit more difficult. I think folks under-estimated the fresh immunity effect that countries like Israel, US and UK didn't really have. Modeling becomes a lot hard when you're an outlier country! The vaccines work really really well especially in the first 1-4 months post dose #2. In the UK, Israel, US, etc. many folks are on month number 6-8 post second dose and I think these models are based off their experiences.

And of course, we still have restrictions. In the UK and Israel they're basically living as if life is normal. In the US, many states are doing the same. I feel like Ontario has some key restrictions that are only minor inconveniences but clearly necessary to curb the spread (unlike Berta, for example). With that said in Canada we're all (including Alberta) in the easy stage. Most folks got vaxxed in June/July so we have a stronger population effect than almost every country right now. Soon we won't have that advantage!
 
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SundinsTooth

Leafs Moderator
The models have been scarily spot on throughout the entire pandemic. Like.. Almost perfect. Every single time.

But in a time where we vaccinated ~70% of the entire province all at once it becomes a bit more difficult. I think folks under-estimated the fresh immunity effect that countries like Israel, US and UK didn't really have. Modeling becomes a lot hard when you're an outlier country! The vaccines work really really well especially in the first 1-4 months post dose #2. In the UK, Israel, US, etc. many folks are on month number 6-8 post second dose and I think these models are based off their experiences.
This forecast is hilariously off though. My concern is that when they publish these, the public confidence is horribly impacted. I think they should be more active in damage control through refinement to these models to update the public. I see a lot of talk surrounding these forecasts and a very flippant or dismissive attitude towards them. I work in a field that relies on models and am always seeing updates, refinements, discussions from the real world data.

I am just curious WHAT THE HECK Ontario is doing right that has had such a positive role here. It's super optimistic at this point. Curious if the modelers themselves are just as surprised.


Edited to add - I understand the forecasts for worst-case are meant to highlight need for action. What I don't understand is how the lower forecast has turned out more accurate for Ontario here since we likely have not hit a 25% reduction in contacts.
 

Preston

AKA: Preston Fauci. Prestauci.
This forecast is hilariously off though. My concern is that when they publish these, the public confidence is horribly impacted. I think they should be more active in damage control through refinement to these models to update the public. I see a lot of talk surrounding these forecasts and a very flippant or dismissive attitude towards them. I work in a field that relies on models and am always seeing updates, refinements, discussions from the real world data.

I am just curious WHAT THE HECK Ontario is doing right that has had such a positive role here. It's super optimistic at this point. Curious if the modelers themselves are just as surprised.
Not gonna defend that forecast but I will say it's not so much a forecast as it is a "worst case scenario vs best case scenario" thing based on OUR behavior. Alberta's behavior clearly is different than ours despite having a large percentage of folks vaxxed. They got hit really really hard. That could have happened to us if we said that covid is over. That's what the worst case scenario line is showing. It wasn't predicting that would happen.. It's more of a "this is what would happen if we remove all restrictions" line.

It's way more important to be realistic than impact public confidence. The problem around the world is the belief that the vaccines are bulletproof and that covid is over. That's where countries and provinces run into issues, not being diligent. The models should be publicized way more because they serve as a great reminder about what could happen if we let up our guard.

Alberta vs Ontario is a perfect example and the behavior of each province is very different! One had a near worst-case scenario and Ontario has a near best case scenario. I hope we keep this up, but as I said.. It's easy times now. In a few months or vaccine effectiveness will drop significantly heading into the cold winter months. That's when we'll be tested.
 

hockeylover

Well-known member
Incredibly impressed with how well our case load is holding up in Ontario. R0 sticking around 1. We're a bad week or 2 away from things going haywire and with each passing day our immunity is waning. Still in a good spot with decent protection with most of us being fully vaxxed 2-3 months ago; fresh immunity is the best kind of immunity as Israel found out. And Canada is in a unique spot where we basically ALL got fully vaxxed in a 1-2 month timeframe.. Most countries staggered it out to 6+ months due to supply constraints + we did a 2nd dose blitz from extending intervals, so we get more of a population effect for the time being with ALMOST everyone having fresh immunity.

BUT our x-factor? We can get another large segment of the population vaxxed (first dose) by mid-November if approval is a clean swift process for 5-11s, which feels fairly likely. That will no doubt be a big boost heading into the new year.

We currently have around 70% of the entire population fully vaxxed.. By the new year we could approach 80%, with 5-12s (who have potential to be large spreaders) having fresh immunity. And there's gonna be another decently large segment of folks who are unvaxxed but infected so really we may be looking at around 85-90% of folks either vaxxed or infected by the new year. If we're not doing boosters heading into the winter I still do fear a fairly large wave.. At the very least I think it would be wise to boost the 60+ers 5-6 months after dose #2 as most nations are doing. That would take us to around December/January for much of the population. So even if we do get a wave our hospitals will be in a good spot to withstand it with our vulnerable freshly boosted.
Haven't school cases gone from ~100 per day here to ~300 new school cases yesterday and we're only 3 weeks in though? A tad concerned about that part tbh.

In general pretty happy about the other decisions made here though.
 

LeafGm

Well-known member
didn't he just appoint himself minister of health?


Well, he’s an idiot too, but I was talking about a different idiot.

Kenney has some neckbeard troll working as one of his staffers (or maybe even his chief of staff?), and he infamously tweeted to some reporters concerned about Kenney’s “open for summer” policy something along the lines of “the pandemic is over, get used to it”.
 
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