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OT: Coronavirus Resources - and other things to not worry about

AP79

Active member
I thought herd immunity was not possible? Wont this virus just keep on mutating until the end of time? Cat's out the bag type of thing?
 

MindzEye

Wayward Ditch Pig
I thought herd immunity was not possible? Wont this virus just keep on mutating until the end of time? Cat's out the bag type of thing?

True herd immunity probably isn't possible, but his point #4 is massively important. Infection to fatality rate (which can be expanded to be mean infection to severe infection rate) is the key here. The seasonal flu is endemic but we have zero fucks for the most part because hospitalizations, ICU stays, & fatalities are more or less unheard of unless you're significantly, significantly immunocompromised already. So the idea of covid being endemic gives all of us shivers because the idea of rotating lockdowns of society, constantly having concern for our personal safety, etc sounds fucking dreadful. But in practice that's not going to be what an endemic covid world looks like.

Even waning immunity will provide significant protection from severe covid infection, and anti viral treatments specific to delta (and it's closest relatives/off spring) are likely to be a thing, and widely available within the next 12 months. Throw in home based rapid testing as soon as you notice yourself feeling a bit off and we have a framework for those severe infections to just be not dangerous anymore. So even if you've skipped that season's covid booster, at the first sign of a covid symptom you will have a box of covid tests at home, if you test positive you will call your doctor and have a prescription for an anti viral ready to be picked up at your local pharmacy. Within a few hours you're on the anti viral and that will be the end of it. You'll take a few days off of work to keep transmission to a minimum and done.

When the health care system simply isn't overloaded anymore, we're out of the woods and relatively normal life becomes a thing (masks are here to stay in public places for quite some time I think, as are telecommuting, zoom meetings, etc at a much higher rate than pre covid)
 

Preston

AKA: Preston Fauci. Prestauci.
Will be interesting to see how much they can decrease ifr. Because shit, if 20-30% of people get infected each year that's gonna create some real burden even it becomes flu severity. Elderly/vulnerable don't necessarily do all that well with the flu either! And with 2-3x more people catching covid per year that's gonna be an issue. Wonder if we're past the peak life expectancy era for humans.

I agree tho. Early detection and treatment will be important I think once we have all the tools available.

Plus the whole long covid thing I think should eventually improve with boosting/treatments/multiple exposures. But that's another thing that may cause issues and further deaths/health complications down the road.
 

MindzEye

Wayward Ditch Pig
Will be interesting to see how much they can decrease ifr. Because shit, if 20-30% of people get infected each year that's gonna create some real burden even it becomes flu severity. Elderly/vulnerable don't necessarily do all that well with the flu either! And with 2-3x more people catching covid per year that's gonna be an issue. Wonder if we're past the peak life expectancy era for humans.

I agree tho. Early detection and treatment will be important I think once we have all the tools available.

Plus the whole long covid thing I think should eventually improve with boosting/treatments/multiple exposures. But that's another thing that may cause issues and further deaths/health complications down the road.

With masking in indoor public places (which I think is with us for the long haul) a focus on improving indoor air quality (Hepa....everywhere, way overdue), & the availability of vaccines (I'd be surprised if vaccination rates dipped under 60-70%, basically ever...I'd also be surprised if this was the top of the mountain for delta specific vaccine quality, remember that we're "making due" with vaccines designed to combat alpha), I'd be damn shocked if we were doing 20-30% infection rates annually. 3-11% of people get infected with the flu annually with no masking, no societal fucks given, and trash vaccine uptake (30% is a good year for flu shot uptake). Delta is way more virulent of course, but with real controls and actual vaccine uptake I don't see why our infection rates would blast past the R-naught of the flu that we didn't literally nothing of substance about.
 

MindzEye

Wayward Ditch Pig
Wonder if we're past the peak life expectancy era for humans.

I have a bit of a different take on this tbh.

Covid is pushing us to make a bunch of societal changes that have been a bit of an anchor on life expectency. More emphasis on mental health, better work/life balance, less driving, better indoor air quality, more fucks given about protecting yourself from airborn illnesses, etc.
 

Wayward DP

Well-known member
I have a bit of a different take on this tbh.

Covid is pushing us to make a bunch of societal changes that have been a bit of an anchor on life expectency. More emphasis on mental health, better work/life balance, less driving, better indoor air quality, more fucks given about protecting yourself from airborn illnesses, etc.
yeah but I'm not convinced we actually make all/many of the changes that we ought to.

case in point: conservative government's management of covid...
 

Preston

AKA: Preston Fauci. Prestauci.
Quick follow-up on the one bit we just don't have answers for


A more transmissible and deadly version of the flu circulating would be a poor result for anyone over 60 or 70 really. IFR in that age group is very high even for vaxxed folks at the moment (especially for delta). We will simply have to wait on finding out more on that. Treatments and further exposures may help bring that down.
 
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