• Moderators, please send me a PM if you are unable to access mod permissions. Thanks, Habsy.

OT: Coronavirus Resources - and other things to not worry about

Preston

The Artist Formerly Known as Goldust
Anyway.. I'm at a point now where I prefer action on the most addressable issues at hand. I know he will shift the blame and play politics so it is what it is. I just want things to be better. Today is a good day. Not sure how it'll work out because there aren't many countries doing it this way but I like seeing an out of the box, more strategic approach with vaccinations. Would prefer if we prioritized those without natural immunity but this is better than nothing.
 

anne25

Well-known member
Well tomorrow is my turn to get the precious vaccine 😀.

I think that Ottawa is opening up registrations for 60+ tomorrow as well. Now I’m eagerly waiting for my type 1 diabetic daughter to be able to get one. She has been very careful but now that she is off work for a month I do feel a bit better.
 

Preston

The Artist Formerly Known as Goldust
Vaccinating 18 year olds over people with high risk conditions seems silly.

His strategy is about votes not science.
Lotta scientists promote this approach. I highly doubt this was Dougie's plan since many smarter people have been calling for it. with some on his vaccine task force. Highest risk is age; 50, 60+ and that is largely done. Common thought is for next step to limit spread by vaccinating the group who transmit the virus the most, which indirectly protects everyone.

Pretty sure those with high risk conditions are part of phase 2 as well, no?
 

Preston

The Artist Formerly Known as Goldust
In fact, I would go as far as saying the US kinda fucked up by not being more strategic in their rollout. Michigan could have beaten B.1.1.7 if they allocated more vaccines there. They're drowning now and it's not slowing down.
 

Wayward DP

Well-known member
Thread on P.1 (and probably really really good news):


TLDR:


P.1 might be deadlier but it looks like it is not as transmissive as B.1.1.7 which we know vaccines work GREAT on. Great news.
so that was not my takeaway. my takeaway was that when both P1 and B117 are present, B117 'outcompetes' P1. basically the presence of B117 anywhere makes it less likely to have widespread P1 in that same place. but I'm not a scientist.
 

Wayward DP

Well-known member
Vaccinating 18 year olds over people with high risk conditions seems silly.

His strategy is about votes not science.
not if the people with conditions are refusing to book appointments.

I mean I appreciate the concern but my impression is that supply is badly outpacing demand. if true, then this strategy makes sense.

of course, the other issue you could raise is why there is seemingly a lack of a plan or infrastructure for the vaccination campaign when they had so long to prepare for it.
 

Preston

The Artist Formerly Known as Goldust
so that was not my takeaway. my takeaway was that when both P1 and B117 are present, B117 'outcompetes' P1. basically the presence of B117 anywhere makes it less likely to have widespread P1 in that same place. but I'm not a scientist.
"Outcompetes" implies that it is more transmissive than P.1. Most transmissive variant wins and survives until we're all vaccinated, and then some other factors like immunity escape become more important as well. A virus will always look for an advantage to survive the longest and spread the most and right now it's transmissibility leading the charge as the most important factor.

Kinda explains why B.1.1.7 has basically become the predominant strain in the world. Which is lucky since current vaccines work great on it. P.1 does have some additional immunity escaping properties so it would suck of it outcompeted B117 but I'm sure we'll be in for some more surprises at some point.
 

Preston

The Artist Formerly Known as Goldust
not if the people with conditions are refusing to book appointments.

I mean I appreciate the concern but my impression is that supply is badly outpacing demand. if true, then this strategy makes sense.

of course, the other issue you could raise is why there is seemingly a lack of a plan or infrastructure for the vaccination campaign when they had so long to prepare for it.
I'm sure you'll find some scientists who disagree but the approach is 100% based in science. Not a lot of countries have had the balls to listen to their scientists with something strategic like this so I'm actually kinda impressed that we're going off the board here.
 

hockeylover

Well-known member
I think it's only 18 year old+/essential workers in the high risk postal codes anyway which seems to make sense. I'm guessing they tend to be areas with a large number of multi-generational residences and apartment complexes and the essential workers are bringing it home to the whole household because of these variants.
 

Preston

The Artist Formerly Known as Goldust
Glad we protected the vulnerable. Had to get to them first even if they're not necessarily infecting anyone. It will save the most lives off the hop. But targeting specific areas strategically is what will slow the spread.


And it's not like we're allocating all of our supply just on these people. As Isaac says, we don't have the supply to go balls deep on this implementation right away.



Toronto and Peel starting first which is obviously the right move. I have some family in some of those postal codes in Toronto so that's good news for them.
 
Last edited:

manny

Well-known member
"Outcompetes" implies that it is more transmissive than P.1. Most transmissive variant wins and survives until we're all vaccinated, and then some other factors like immunity escape become more important as well. A virus will always look for an advantage to survive the longest and spread the most and right now it's transmissibility leading the charge as the most important factor.

Kinda explains why B.1.1.7 has basically become the predominant strain in the world. Which is lucky since current vaccines work great on it. P.1 does have some additional immunity escaping properties so it would suck of it outcompeted B117 but I'm sure we'll be in for some more surprises at some point.
The fact that one is more transmissive than the other just means that if a population is taking action to limit spread of the more transmissive variant, those actions will likely result in even greater reduction of the less transmissive variant. Much like all of the preventative measures we've been taking for the last year led to the easiest flu season in memory. I don't see this as especially great news beyond the fact that if we can keep B.1.1.7 in check (TBD), we can also control the others.
 

Preston

The Artist Formerly Known as Goldust
The fact that one is more transmissive than the other just means that if a population is taking action to limit spread of the more transmissive variant, those actions will likely result in even greater reduction of the less transmissive variant. Much like all of the preventative measures we've been taking for the last year led to the easiest flu season in memory. I don't see this as especially great news beyond the fact that if we can keep B.1.1.7 in check (TBD), we can also control the others.
It's great news because there were fears that P.1 was more transmissive. That would be bad for a number of reasons:

1. We can't even keep B.1.1.7 in check. A more transmissive variant that would eventually take over would be a disaster
2. P.1 appears to be more deadly and serious for younger people. That is unconfirmed and any studies done so far are not yet peer reviewed so I'm not fully on board with the fear mongering with that point.
3. We know that P.1 escapes immunity far better than B.1.1.7. Vaccines simply won't work as well on them. We have seen B.1.1.7 contained very well in Israel with just 52% of the country fully vaccinated so we know it is possible. If our vaccines suddenly lose another 10, 15% of effectiveness that poses a problem and the herd immunity threshold would increase. Of course there's a chance that P.1 or the SA variant gains an advantage when we're all vaccinated starts infecting more and more vaccinated people but one problem at a time. It's going to be a long battle and we're getting boosters for those sooner than we think.

If our biggest threat right now is a variant that our current vaccines work very well on, that is good news.
 
Last edited:

manny

Well-known member
It's great news because there were fears that P.1 was more transmissive. That would be bad for a number of reasons:

1. We can't even keep B.1.1.7 in check. A more transmissive variant that would eventually take over would be a disaster
2. P.1 appears to be more deadly and serious for younger people. That is unconfirmed and any studies done so far are not yet peer reviewed so I'm not fully on board with the fear mongering with that point.
2. We know that P.1 escapes immunity far better than B.1.1.7. Vaccines simply won't work as well on them. We have seen B.1.1.7 contained very well in Israel with just 52% of the country fully vaccinated so we know it is possible.

If our biggest threat is a variant that our current vaccines work very well on, this is good news.
Agreed, it would be worse if P.1 was more transmissive. It will also continue to spread unless we take sufficient preventative measures, regardless of the presence of a more transmissive variant.
 

MindzEye

Wayward Ditch Pig

No reason for it to have taken this, or this long. We waited until the house was engulfed before we bothered to hook up our hoses.

The vaccination effort should have had ridiculous levels of overkill infrastructure built-in. We should have created a certification course similar to a first aid ticket and trained any volunteer who wanted to be trained (injection is an easily trainable skill). Have them overseen by a medical professional (5 to 1 supervisory ratio is fine, and common in safety-sensitive industries. They can oversee safe vaccine handling/storage) and do pop-up clinics (suitable empty commercial spaces, and yeah available public spaces like churches) & mobile clinics (LTC, Schools, poor communities, native reserves, etc), temporary structures in pharmacy parking lots to comfortably handle high volume traffic, etc.

Nice of them to start showing some urgency, but it's about 6 months late.
 
Last edited:

Preston

The Artist Formerly Known as Goldust
Agreed, it would be worse if P.1 was more transmissive. It will also continue to spread unless we take sufficient preventative measures, regardless of the presence of a more transmissive variant.
Not really spreading though. It has an advantage over the original strain which is why we're seeing it take over certain parts of the world where B117 is less present, but that original strain is slowly being wiped off the map. Most transmissive variant wins and takes over all others long-term.

This is basically the point I'm getting at:

It's one study but it would be really really really good news if it held up.
 
Top