THREE IS NOT ENOUGH!*
Some napkin math on how much immunity wanes after 6 months.
Tldr: waning exists but it may not that bad. And the effectiveness on severe cases is likely not impacted or maybe minimally impacted. Caveat is that this is work using incomplete data and full of assumptions!
(But I will say this probably supports 6 month boosters at least for the elderly! After that we regroup and see how much it extends! Learning on the fly!)
I'm happy letting Israel, the US and the UK figure that shit out since they were way ahead of us. Canada is in an awesome spot.
UK has tried to let it rip. Valiant strategy. Brave as shit. But obviously has failed as we've seen exponential growth across all ages and vax status in hospitalizations. Now Israel is seeing immunity wane with protection from severe cases likely holding up. Next move is likely boosters but for who? Will it offer even better protection than it did after two shots? Some believe it may! And how long will immunity from that last? Stay tuned!
I think we're starting to learn that fresh immunity is the best kind of immunity. We all got vaccinated in the same two month span here in Canada so we're crushing it. If we maintained these immunity levels long-term we'd be in a great spot but it pretty clearly wanes. Which is fine. Anyone under 40 or 50 who is relatively healthy is likely fine as fuck even if they catch it. The elderly and high risk groups will unfortunately always be at risk.AB has given up trying to fight it and knock on wood, so far it hasn't exploded back up the same way it has in the UK or the US. We still have to see how that holds out, and I'd definitely be really curious to see why exactly so far things are fine here while it has been a gong show elsewhere.
However bad it becomes it won't ever be as bad as the last wave we had pre-vax. Maybe in cases but not with severe illness! So there's that! The question I have is whether we put in place restrictions or just go full UK and "do it live."I hope I'm wrong, but I am confident that September is gonna be a bit of a bloodbath once schools reopen. Which realistically means mid-September/October is when case numbers will start creeping back up, with a potential lockdown #4 in October/November.
But hope I'm wrong!
hope he's alright. kinda scary that he has those symptoms while fully vaxxed. suspect delta...Anyway my brother had to travel to New York for work and just came back a few days ago. Did his tests and whatnot when he returned and all clear...
Symptoms came fast for him and are textbook covid. Got tested, no results yet but I mean the dude can't smell or taste anything. His oxygen levels are low enough that he went to the hospital not long ago.
Double vaxxed with moderna with his second dose in mid-June. He's 37. Bleh.
It's all anecdotal but I've heard enough of these stories that I'd rather try to avoid catching it again. I'm sure he'll be fine but even when fully vaxxed for many the illness appears to still be flu on steroids. I feel like I'd get it worse than last time. I used up my free pass already.hope he's alright. kinda scary that he has those symptoms while fully vaxxed. suspect delta...
Yeah. Odds are good that it would be mild if I catch it. Natural immunity kinda stinks tho especially after a year + with a new variant. Tldr: I'm playing it like I'm double vaxxed. I'm a bitch ass diva when I'm actually sickyou've been triple vaxxed, no? 1 shot of covid + 2 shots of vax