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OT: The Toronto Blue Jays

Yeah, you can cherry-pick stats to make Martin look good or look bad. I don't like "giving up" on him after only a half season of pro ball, unless if you're getting a real big thing back. And I think given the Jays situation, I don't 100% know if Berrios is the piece. I mean, he helps, for sure, and has control. But he also probably won't even pitch for us in the WC game if we make it, so like, he doesn't help that much in that case.
 
And then when you get into the bones of that 132wrc+, you see that it's built in a very worrisome way - super high babip but even then only a mediocre average, and a complete lack of power.
Nope. It's not very worrisome and it's not super high. But I see that if you are under that that impression, you would misunderstand how good Martin's line is this year. Groshans at .433 last year was "super-high". Samad Taylor at .412 is super high. Otto Lopez at .422 is super high. Martin's BABIP right now is not much off what you can expect from a top hitting prospect playing in AA.
 
I'll admit one thing I don't have a good handle on is Martin's defence. Obviously if he is going to end up in corner OF or 1B, his value is way down. The bat will stay play at those positions.
 
Yeah, you can cherry-pick stats to make Martin look good or look bad. I don't like "giving up" on him after only a half season of pro ball, unless if you're getting a real big thing back. And I think given the Jays situation, I don't 100% know if Berrios is the piece. I mean, he helps, for sure, and has control. But he also probably won't even pitch for us in the WC game if we make it, so like, he doesn't help that much in that case.
Berrios for SWR would have been a decent trade. If they threw in another prospect like Hiraldo or something, so be it. Martin makes the trade inexcusable. Even if the Jays are down on him and he busts (which I don't think he will) you have to make better use of an asset than that.
 
.368 BABIP for a top prospect in AA? So what?

Vladdy and Bo both had .402 BABIPs in AA.

Also did you say you like Jordan Groshans? His BABIP is .358 this year. It was .433 last year. It was .387 the year before.

there were two parts to that statement.

Yes Vladdy had a .402babip, but he used that to post a .402avg as well. So even losing 100pts in babip would still leave him as a .300 hitter. At every level there was no gap between his babip and average, so you never had to worry about babip inflation. of course, vladdy was ridiculous and prospects usually have a gap. And of course he was 3 years younger than Martin is.

Bo had a gap. Usually his babip was about 30-40 points higher than his average. In AA he had a better average than Martin (.286) while only needing a babip near 40pts lower to do it (.331). Not ideal but not too worrisome - even if he turned into a league average babip guy you could still expect a batting average comfortable in the high 200s. An if he was able to carry a higher than average Babip he could be a .300 hitter. So far in the bigs he's got a .350babip and a .301avg. And of course, Bo was 2 years younger than Martin is. And was positng elite power numbers while holding a signicantly lower K% than Martin, too.

Groshans line isn't great either, and we were right to be skeptical of his .433babip boosted line his previous season, but it's significantly better than Martin's. First he's a year younger. Second is that he's hitting .300 even with a lower babip than Martin. And of course he's showing way more game power than Martin and has much more power upside as well, while striking out less than the supposed elite bat control/contact guy Martin. And i don't even love what Groshans has done as a prospect so far but it's better than what Martin's done.


Martin though has a babip 90pts higher than his average. That is worrisome to me. Even if he turns into an elite babip guy in milb (i.e .350) that means he's a .260-270 hitter, and that's only if he can be an elite babip guy - if he's a normal babip guy that comes down into the low 200s.


Maybe he this is just a bad half season, but if he was being drafted right now he wouldn't go near where he did, imo.
 
Fangraphs take on Martin today:

After striking out just twice in 69 plate appearances during Vanderbilt’s shortened 2020 season, Martin has racked up a 21.2% strikeout rate this year, while some feel his propensity for drawing walks (14.8%) also frequently puts him into bad counts he can’t fight his way out of. Data-minded evaluators also point to a loss of power, and while a dip would be expected during a transition from metal to wood bats, Martin’s exit velocities are down a whopping 8 mph from his college days. The questions surrounding Martin’s defense also haven’t been answered, and if anything, they’ve become more pronounced. Martin has split time between shortstop and center field for the Fisher Cats, and scouts have not been impressed with him at either position. He’s been error prone on the dirt, with 10 miscues in just 26 games, while in the outfield, his arm is below average and merely average speed limits his range in center.
 
Fangraphs take on Martin today:

After striking out just twice in 69 plate appearances during Vanderbilt’s shortened 2020 season, Martin has racked up a 21.2% strikeout rate this year, while some feel his propensity for drawing walks (14.8%) also frequently puts him into bad counts he can’t fight his way out of. Data-minded evaluators also point to a loss of power, and while a dip would be expected during a transition from metal to wood bats, Martin’s exit velocities are down a whopping 8 mph from his college days. The questions surrounding Martin’s defense also haven’t been answered, and if anything, they’ve become more pronounced. Martin has split time between shortstop and center field for the Fisher Cats, and scouts have not been impressed with him at either position. He’s been error prone on the dirt, with 10 miscues in just 26 games, while in the outfield, his arm is below average and merely average speed limits his range in center.
Sounds like a poor man's Cavan Biggio.
 
Too bad these guys are too scared to make any moves.



Is the pro shatkins crowd really dunking on people who questioned shatkins for not making moves for 36-37 years or however the fuck long it is that they've been running this club for now?

I mean, pointing out that they might have found a set is one thing, dunk attempts are entirely different thing though.
 
Is the pro shatkins crowd really dunking on people who questioned shatkins for not making moves for 36-37 years or however the fuck long it is that they've been running this club for now?

I mean, pointing out that they might have found a set is one thing, dunk attempts are entirely different thing though.
New year, new shatkins.

And yes we are. Hope you enjoy those salty nads.
 
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