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OT: World Politics

lecoqsportif

Well-known member
Tim Snyder:

It’s not just Russian forces in Ukraine that are in retreat. Putin himself is clearly afraid. He’s done something he plainly didn’t want to do. Announcing mobilization shows he fears his fascist rivals more than he fears the Russian public.

So Kamil Galeev, who is worthy of a follow on Twitter, disagrees:

“I disagree. I think this is not about "fascist rivals" (he deeply despises the public politics) but about the need to restore control over the ruling clique. Show them all he is still in charge, that he still commands obedience. Otherwise, why do his own henchmen need him?”

I’m not sure I understand the difference, but I might be blinded by my hyper-librul-westerner perspective. This looks like a distinction without a difference.
 

lecoqsportif

Well-known member
That said, Galeev argues that Pout-Pout’s humiliation at that conference with the Central Asian Stans may have prompted this course of action.
 

MindzEye

Wayward Ditch Pig
So Kamil Galeev, who is worthy of a follow on Twitter, disagrees:

“I disagree. I think this is not about "fascist rivals" (he deeply despises the public politics) but about the need to restore control over the ruling clique. Show them all he is still in charge, that he still commands obedience. Otherwise, why do his own henchmen need him?”

I’m not sure I understand the difference, but I might be blinded by my hyper-librul-westerner perspective. This looks like a distinction without a difference.

Yeah, the second guy is saying the same as the first with a dash of "and he remains a master strategist".
 

MindzEye

Wayward Ditch Pig
That said, Galeev argues that Pout-Pout’s humiliation at that conference with the Central Asian Stans may have prompted this course of action.

I also think there were military realities that they flat out didn't think were going to be important that ended up really important. Apparently the Russian military was running at best at 60% strength when this popped off and we're just now reaching the time in an extended conflict where even good soldiers become combat fatigued and need to be rotated out, while entirely lacking the manpower to do it.

There has probably been a secret kremlin countdown going for months now to when this was going to be a necessity. This plays with the leaks that the russian military plans on treating this first 300k tranche of reservists as contract soldiers and not conscripts. Contract soldiers are the backbone of combat ops, while conscripts are generally useless for much more than knowing which end of the gun goes bang bang.

This is probably a quasi panic move to shore up a pending collapse in day to day fighting ability more than it is tied to any specific set of political happenings or maneuverings. I mean, it could that vlad is back to playing 4D chess after a break, but I'm not going to be quick to accept any master strategist narratives until the moves made can stop being explained by pure necessity.
 
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