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OT: World Politics


Well-known member
I was wondering about that. Maybe a new, more enthusiastic lackie is waiting in the wings.

One thing about Lukashenko is that while he’s allowed Russia free rein to use Belarus as a launching pad for attacks on Ukraine, he’s steadfastly refused to commit any of his own forces to the fight.

And Russian does desperately need more meat for the grinder, and would desperately like to avoid an additional mass mobilization of its own citizens.


Well-known member
I wonder about the loyalty of the troops…

Well yeah. Potential troop mutinies and the threat of being toppled after 30+ years of rule is why Lukashenko won’t join the fight.

But maybe Moscow’s desperate enough to roll the dice on that at this point, and if Luka won’t play ball they’ll install someone who will. With the understanding that it’ll either work out and they get to be the new Russian Gauleiter of Belarus for life. Or if it doesn’t work, they can flee to a palatial dacha in Russia.


Wayward Ditch Pig

Yup, shaping operations.

And they're doing it all the way up and down the line of contact with Russia.

- Their arty has pushed all Russian troops out of Dachi already, giving them control over the marshy islands between Kherson & Oleshky and they've been targeting Russia arty around Nova Kakhovka (the easiest crossing of the Dnipro near Kherson) so they appear to be shaping for a move there.

- As Trent noted, they've been hollowing out Russian logistics capability to be able to stop the joked about "Thunder Run to Melitopol"

- Their counter in Bakhmut has some wondering if the push isn't going to be there for symbolic purposes, they've been mission shaping for a Stalingradesque uno reverse card there for 6 months now.