If I had to bet, someone(s) who Trump makes money off of wanted this deal to happen.
I haven't seen the details of the deal widely reported but here's the coles notes:
- There is no repayment of previous US assistance to Ukraine at any valuation.
- There is no security guarantee from the US in the deal, but there is language in the deal admitting that Russian perpetrated a "full scale invasion" on Ukraine and the deal specifically forbids any Russian firm, or Russian national from being involved in the deal in any way, also any entity or person who has "financed the Russian war machine". No idea how that's enforced, but it's in there.
- Ukraine retains full ownership of all natural resources, including final approvals on all extraction projects
- They've established a 50/50 joint investment fund for all future projects with 50/50 revenue share. All future US military aid counts towards US contributions to this fund (including that 300 million dollar F-16 package). 50% of all future revenue from Ukrainian resource extraction projects will go into the fund. Existing Ukrainian projects are exempt from the deal.
- US firms have 100% off take rights at market rates, as in US firms have right of first refusal on all resource purchases moving forward. They get first dibs, but at whatever the international market rate for that resource at the time is.
Functionally the deal doesn't do a lot. Mines take over a decade to develop to maturity and corporations aren't going to be lining up to spend 100's of millions developing the project in the middle of the war. The pay off really only comes if Ukraine wins (or at least, doesn't lose) the war...which is kind of encouraging.
This also isn't happening in a vacuum. US military exports are tanking, especially in the fighter jet market. Sweden & Saab were pushing hard to get the Gripen into Ukraine to show it off as a future option for a low budget backbone. This undercuts those efforts and gives Lockheed a nice win at the same time they're having billions of contracts cancelled/unfulfilled because of numbuts.